Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats     

Louis R. Iverson  Stephen N. Matthews  Anantha M. Prasad  Matthew P. Peters  Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2012,114(2):231-243

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate change. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or impact of that event. In the context of species habitats, the likelihood component is related to the potential changes in suitable habitat modeled at various times during this century. Consequences are related to the adaptability of the species to cope with the changes, especially the increasing intensity and/or frequency of disturbance events that are projected. We derived consequence scores from nine biological and 12 disturbance characteristics that were pulled from literature for each species. All data were generated from an atlas of climate change for 134 trees of the eastern United States (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas). We show examples which depict a wide range of risk for tree species of northern Wisconsin, including species that may gain substantial habitat as well as lose substantial habitat, both of which will require the development of strategies to help the ecosystems adapt to such changes.  相似文献   

Time scales and length scales in magma ?ow pathways and the origin ofmagmatic Ni-Cu-PGE ore deposits     

Stephen J.Barnes  Jesse C.Robertson 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,(1):77-87

Ore forming processes involve the redistribution of heat, mass and momentum by a wide range of processes operating at different time and length scales. The fastest process at any given length scale tends to be the dominant control. Applying this principle to the array of physical processes that operate within magma flow pathways leads to some key insights into the origins of magmatic Ni-Cu-PGE sulfide ore deposits. A high proportion of mineralised systems, including those in the super-giant Noril'sk-Talnakh camp, are formed in small conduit intrusions where assimilation of country rock has played a major role. Evidence of this process is reflected in the common association of sulfides with varitextured contaminated host rocks containing xenoliths in varying stages of assimilation. Direct incorporation of S-bearing country rock xenoliths is likely to be the dominant mechanism for generating sulfide liquids in this setting. However, the processes of melting or dissolving these xenoliths is relatively slow compared with magma flow rates and, depending on xenolith lithology and the composition of the carrier magma, slow compared with settling and accumulation rates. Chemical equilibration between sulfide droplets and silicate magma is slower still, as is the process of dissolving sulfide liquid into initially undersaturated silicate magmas. Much of the transport and deposition of sulfide in the carrier magmas may occur while sulfide is still incorporated in the xenoliths, accounting for the common association of magmatic sulfide-matrix ore breccias and contaminated "taxitic" host rocks. Effective upgrading of so-formed sulfide liquids would require repetitive recycling by processes such as reentrainment, back flow or gravity flow operating over the lifetime of the magma transport system as a whole. In contrast to mafic-hosted systems, komatiite-hosted ores only rarely show an association with externally-derived xenoliths, an observation which is partially due to the predominant formation of ores in lava flows rather than deep-seated intrusions, but also to the much shorter timescales of key component systems in hotter, less viscous magmas. Nonetheless, multiple cycles of deposition and entrainment are necessary to account for the metal contents of komatiite-hosted sulfides. More generally, the time and length scale approach introduced here may be of value in understanding other igneous processes as well as non-magmatic mineral systems.  相似文献   

Assessment of widely used methods to derive depositional ages from detrital zircon populations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daniel S.Coutts  William A.Matthews  Stephen M.Hubbard 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(4):1421-1435

The calculation of a maximum depositional age(MDA)from a detrital zircon sample can provide insight into a variety of geological problems.However,the impact of sample size and calculation method on the accuracy of a resulting MDA has not been evaluated.We use large populations of synthetic zircon dates(N≈25,000)to analyze the impact of varying sample size(n),measurement uncertainty,and the abundance of neardepositional-age zircons on the accuracy and uncertainty of 9 commonly used MDA calculation methods.Furthermore,a new method,the youngest statistical population is tested.For each method,500 samples of n synthetic dates were drawn from the parent population and MDAs were calculated.The mean and standard deviation of each method ove r the 500 trials at each n-value(50-1000,in increments of 50)were compa red to the known depositional age of the synthetic population and used to compare the methods quantitatively in two simulation scenarios.The first simulation scenario varied the proportion of near-depositional-age grains in the synthetic population.The second scenario varied the uncertainty of the dates used to calculate the MDAs.Increasing sample size initially decreased the mean residual error and standard deviation calculated by each method.At higher n-values(>~300 grains),calculated MDAs changed more slowly and the mean resid ual error increased or decreased depending on the method used.Increasing the p roportion of near-depositional-age grains and lowering measurement uncertainty decreased the number of measurements required for the calculated MDAs to stabilize and decreased the standard deviation in calculated MDAs of the 500 samples.Results of the two simulation scenarios show that the most successful way to increase the accuracy of a calculated M DA is by acquiring a large number of low-uncertainty measurements(300300)approach is used if the calculation of accurate MDAs are key to research goals.Other acquisition method s,such as high-to moderate-precision measurement methods(e.g.,1%-5%,2σ)acquiring low-to moderate-n datasets(50300).Additionally,they are most susceptible to producing erroneous MDAs due to contamination in the field or laboratory,or through disturbances of the youngest zircon’s U-Pb systematics(e.g.,lead loss).More conservative methods that still produce accurate MDAs and are less susceptible to contamination or lead loss include:youngest grain cluster at 1σunce rtainty(YGC 1σ),youngest grain clusterat 2σuncertainty(YGC 2σ),and youngest statistical population(YSP).The ages calculated by these methods may be more useful and appealing when fitting calculated MDAs in to pre-existing chronostratigraphic frameworks,as they are less likely to be younger than the true depositional age.From the results of our numerical models we illustrate what geologic processes(i.e.,tectonic or sedimentary)can be resolved using MDAs derived from strata of different ages.  相似文献   

Geochronology – Aims and reminiscences     

Stephen Moorbath 《Applied Geochemistry》2009

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