Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats     

Louis R. Iverson  Stephen N. Matthews  Anantha M. Prasad  Matthew P. Peters  Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2012,114(2):231-243

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate change. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or impact of that event. In the context of species habitats, the likelihood component is related to the potential changes in suitable habitat modeled at various times during this century. Consequences are related to the adaptability of the species to cope with the changes, especially the increasing intensity and/or frequency of disturbance events that are projected. We derived consequence scores from nine biological and 12 disturbance characteristics that were pulled from literature for each species. All data were generated from an atlas of climate change for 134 trees of the eastern United States (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas). We show examples which depict a wide range of risk for tree species of northern Wisconsin, including species that may gain substantial habitat as well as lose substantial habitat, both of which will require the development of strategies to help the ecosystems adapt to such changes.  相似文献   

Time scales and length scales in magma ?ow pathways and the origin ofmagmatic Ni-Cu-PGE ore deposits     

Stephen J.Barnes  Jesse C.Robertson 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,(1):77-87

Ore forming processes involve the redistribution of heat, mass and momentum by a wide range of processes operating at different time and length scales. The fastest process at any given length scale tends to be the dominant control. Applying this principle to the array of physical processes that operate within magma flow pathways leads to some key insights into the origins of magmatic Ni-Cu-PGE sulfide ore deposits. A high proportion of mineralised systems, including those in the super-giant Noril'sk-Talnakh camp, are formed in small conduit intrusions where assimilation of country rock has played a major role. Evidence of this process is reflected in the common association of sulfides with varitextured contaminated host rocks containing xenoliths in varying stages of assimilation. Direct incorporation of S-bearing country rock xenoliths is likely to be the dominant mechanism for generating sulfide liquids in this setting. However, the processes of melting or dissolving these xenoliths is relatively slow compared with magma flow rates and, depending on xenolith lithology and the composition of the carrier magma, slow compared with settling and accumulation rates. Chemical equilibration between sulfide droplets and silicate magma is slower still, as is the process of dissolving sulfide liquid into initially undersaturated silicate magmas. Much of the transport and deposition of sulfide in the carrier magmas may occur while sulfide is still incorporated in the xenoliths, accounting for the common association of magmatic sulfide-matrix ore breccias and contaminated "taxitic" host rocks. Effective upgrading of so-formed sulfide liquids would require repetitive recycling by processes such as reentrainment, back flow or gravity flow operating over the lifetime of the magma transport system as a whole. In contrast to mafic-hosted systems, komatiite-hosted ores only rarely show an association with externally-derived xenoliths, an observation which is partially due to the predominant formation of ores in lava flows rather than deep-seated intrusions, but also to the much shorter timescales of key component systems in hotter, less viscous magmas. Nonetheless, multiple cycles of deposition and entrainment are necessary to account for the metal contents of komatiite-hosted sulfides. More generally, the time and length scale approach introduced here may be of value in understanding other igneous processes as well as non-magmatic mineral systems.  相似文献   

Assessment of widely used methods to derive depositional ages from detrital zircon populations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daniel S.Coutts  William A.Matthews  Stephen M.Hubbard 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(4):1421-1435

The calculation of a maximum depositional age(MDA)from a detrital zircon sample can provide insight into a variety of geological problems.However,the impact of sample size and calculation method on the accuracy of a resulting MDA has not been evaluated.We use large populations of synthetic zircon dates(N≈25,000)to analyze the impact of varying sample size(n),measurement uncertainty,and the abundance of neardepositional-age zircons on the accuracy and uncertainty of 9 commonly used MDA calculation methods.Furthermore,a new method,the youngest statistical population is tested.For each method,500 samples of n synthetic dates were drawn from the parent population and MDAs were calculated.The mean and standard deviation of each method ove r the 500 trials at each n-value(50-1000,in increments of 50)were compa red to the known depositional age of the synthetic population and used to compare the methods quantitatively in two simulation scenarios.The first simulation scenario varied the proportion of near-depositional-age grains in the synthetic population.The second scenario varied the uncertainty of the dates used to calculate the MDAs.Increasing sample size initially decreased the mean residual error and standard deviation calculated by each method.At higher n-values(>~300 grains),calculated MDAs changed more slowly and the mean resid ual error increased or decreased depending on the method used.Increasing the p roportion of near-depositional-age grains and lowering measurement uncertainty decreased the number of measurements required for the calculated MDAs to stabilize and decreased the standard deviation in calculated MDAs of the 500 samples.Results of the two simulation scenarios show that the most successful way to increase the accuracy of a calculated M DA is by acquiring a large number of low-uncertainty measurements(300300)approach is used if the calculation of accurate MDAs are key to research goals.Other acquisition method s,such as high-to moderate-precision measurement methods(e.g.,1%-5%,2σ)acquiring low-to moderate-n datasets(50300).Additionally,they are most susceptible to producing erroneous MDAs due to contamination in the field or laboratory,or through disturbances of the youngest zircon’s U-Pb systematics(e.g.,lead loss).More conservative methods that still produce accurate MDAs and are less susceptible to contamination or lead loss include:youngest grain cluster at 1σunce rtainty(YGC 1σ),youngest grain clusterat 2σuncertainty(YGC 2σ),and youngest statistical population(YSP).The ages calculated by these methods may be more useful and appealing when fitting calculated MDAs in to pre-existing chronostratigraphic frameworks,as they are less likely to be younger than the true depositional age.From the results of our numerical models we illustrate what geologic processes(i.e.,tectonic or sedimentary)can be resolved using MDAs derived from strata of different ages.  相似文献   

Geochronology – Aims and reminiscences     

Stephen Moorbath 《Applied Geochemistry》2009

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REE and Sr isotope characteristics of carbonate within the Cu–Co mineralized sedimentary sequence of the Nchanga Mine,Zambian Copperbelt     

Stephen Roberts  Martin R. Palmer  Matthew J. Cooper  Peter Buchaus  Drew Sargent 《Mineralium Deposita》2009,44(8):881-891

Carbonate, largely in the form of dolomite, is found throughout the host rocks and ores of the Nchanga mine of the Zambian Copperbelt. Dolomite samples from the hanging wall of the mineralization show low concentrations of rare-earth elements (REE) and roof-shaped, upward convex, shale-normalized REE patterns, with positive Eu*_SN anomalies (1.54 and 1.39) and marginally negative Ce anomalies (Ce*_SN 0.98,0.93). In contrast, dolomite samples associated with copper and cobalt mineralization show a significant rotation of the REE profile, with HREE enrichment, and La/Lu_SN ratios <1 (0.06–0.42). These samples also tend to show variable but predominantly negative Eu*_SN and positive cerium anomalies and an upwardly concave MREE distribution (Gd-Er). Malachite samples from the Lower Orebody show roof-tile-normalized REE patterns with negative europium anomalies (Eu*_SN 0.65–0.80) and negative cerium anomalies (Ce*_SN 0.86–0.9). The carbonate ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr signature correlates with the associated REE values. The uppermost dolomite samples show Neoproterozoic seawater-like ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios ranging from 0.7111 to 0.7116, whereas carbonate from Cu–Co mineralized samples show relatively low concentrations of strontium and more radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ranging between 0.7136–0.7469. The malachite samples show low concentrations of strontium, but give a highly radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0.7735, the most radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio. These new data suggest that the origin and timing of carbonate precipitation at Nchanga is reflected in the REE and Sr isotope chemistry. The upper dolomite samples show a modified, but essentially seawater-like signature, whereas the rotation of the REE profile, the MREE enrichment, the development of a negative Eu*_SN anomaly and more radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr suggests the dolomite in the Cu–Co mineralized samples precipitated from basinal brines which had undergone significant fluid–rock interaction. Petrographic, REE, and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr data for malachite are consistent with the original sulfide Lower Orebody being subject to a later oxidizing event.  相似文献   

Major- and trace-element characterization, expanded distribution, and a new chronology for the latest Pleistocene Glacier Peak tephras in western North America     

Stephen C. Kuehn  Duane G. Froese  Franklin F. Foit Jr.  Peter Rotheisler 《Quaternary Research》2009,71(2):201-47

The Glacier Peak tephra beds are among the most widespread and arguably some of the most important late Pleistocene chronostratigraphic markers in western North America. These beds represent a series of closely-spaced Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions from Glacier Peak, Washington. The two most widespread beds, Glacier Peak ‘G’ and ‘B’, are reliably distinguished by their glass major and trace element abundances. These beds are also more broadly distributed than previously considered, covering at least 550,000 and 260,000 km², respectively. A third bed, the Irvine bed, known only from southern Alberta, is similar in its major-element composition to the Glacier Peak G bed, but it shows considerable differences in trace element concentrations. The Irvine bed is likely considerably older than the G and B tephras and probably records an additional Plinian eruption, perhaps also from Glacier Peak but from a different magma than G through B. A review of the published radiocarbon ages, new ages in this study, and consideration in a Bayesian framework suggest that the widespread G and B beds are several hundred years older than widely assumed. Our revised age is about 11,600 ¹⁴C yr BP or a calibrated age (at 2 sigma) of 13,710-13,410 cal yr BP.  相似文献   

Preservation of a heavily bored belemnite rostrum from the upper Maastrichtian of north-east Belgium     

Stephen K. Donovan  John W.M. Jagt  Mart J.M. Deckers  Johan Laffineur 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2019,130(2):227-231

The robust calcite rostra (or guards) of belemnites were attractive substrates for some boring organisms in the Mesozoic. The rostra of belemnitellid coleoids are common at certain levels within the Gulpen and Maastricht formations of the extended type area of the Maastrichtian Stage (Upper Cretaceous) in the south-east Netherlands and north-east Belgium. A range of episkeletozoans have been reported from these substrates hitherto. A new specimen preserved as a natural mould in flint from the province of Liège, north-east Belgium, is distinctive, preserving a dense three-dimensional infestation of long, slender, unbranched and unsculptured borings of constant diameter, Trypanites? isp. These may be the spoor of polychaetes. Variations in diameter between borings suggests that the traces in this specimen may represent four separate infestations.  相似文献   

The Enlightened Mr. Parkinson by Cherry Lewis,Icon Books,London, 2018, xii+306 pp., Pbk., ISBN: 978-1-78578-336-4. £9.99.     

Stephen K. Donovan 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2019,130(5):654

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