Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100     

J. M. Gregory  J. A. Church  G. J. Boer  K. W. Dixon  G. M. Flato  D. R. Jackett  J. A. Lowe  S. P. O'Farrell  E. Roeckner  G. L. Russell  R. J. Stouffer  M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001  相似文献   

Historical Changes in the Flood Hazard at Khartoum, Sudan: Lessons and Warnings for the Future   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

H.R.J. Davies  & R.P.D. Walsh 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》1997,18(2):123-140

The 1988 floods at Khartoum were frequently described as "unprecedented". However, an examination of evidence for floods caused by the Nile and rain storms during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries leads to the conclusion that neither the Nile flood nor the rain storms nor their coincidence in one season were unprecedented and that similar situations will recur.We argue that most problems were created by complacency, lack of planning and mismanagement. We conclude with some simple suggestions for flood amelioration in the future and warn that complacency is the single most important phenomenon likely to recur to the detriment of Greater Khartoum in the future.  相似文献   

Industrialisation in Indonesia: The Example of Batam Island     

Stephen A. Royle 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》1997,18(1):89-98

Indonesia is one of the most rapidly developing nations in the world. One important component of its transformation is an industrialisation policy which sees its people utilised by transnational corporations as sources of cheap labour for export goods processing. This has both positive and negative outcomes. This paper explores these issues in a review of Indonesian development strategy with particular reference to Batam Island in Riau Province.  相似文献   

An Early Investigation Of The Striated Tail Of Comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1)     

Pittichovâ  J.  Sekenina  Z.  Birkle  K.  Boehnhardt  J.  Engels  D.  Keller  P. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1997,78(1-3):329-338

The Sekanina-Farrell particle fragmentation model for the striated tails of dust comets is successfully applied to two images of comet Hale-Bopp to study the motions of 12 striae in a time span of March 12–15, 1997. There is evidence for recurring outbursts with a periodicity of 11^h21^m, consistent with results based on analysis of dust jets. The ejecta in all the striae appear to have been released from one source on the nucleus between the end of January and the second half of February 1997, some 60 to 40 days before perihelion. The parent particles were subjected to a radiation pressure acceleration of β_p ≃ 0.55 and their fragmentation lifetimes in 11 of the 12 striae were practically constant and equal to 13–15 days, when normalized to 1 AU from the Sun. Brief analysis of Watanabe et al.'s measurements of striae on their images from March 5–9, 1997 shows even shorter fragmentation lifetimes for the parent particles, mostly about 7–11 days at1 AU. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

The 2dF QSO Redshift Survey – VI. Measuring Λ and β from redshift-space distortions in the power spectrum     

P.J. Outram  Fiona Hoyle  T. Shanks  B.J. Boyle  S.M. Croom  N.S. Loaring  L. Miller  R.J. Smith 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,328(1):174-184

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A comparison of theoreticalCIV emission line strengths with active region observations obtained with the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)     

F. P. Keenan  R. J. Thomas  W. M. Neupert  E. S. Conlon  V. M. Burke 《Solar physics》1993,144(1):69-74

Theoretical line ratios involving 2s ² S - 3p ² P, 2p ² P - 3s ² S, and 2p ² S - 3d ² D transitions inCiv between 312 and 420 Å are presented. A comparison of these with solar active region observational data obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) reveals good agreement between theory and experiment, with discrepancies that average only 22%. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on boardSkylab. The potential usefulness of theCIV line ratios as electron temperature diagnostics for the solar transition region is briefly discussed.  相似文献   

Recurrent Red-tides in the Southampton Water Estuary Caused by the Phototrophic CiliateMesodinium rubrum     

D.W. Crawford  D.A. Purdie  A.P.M. Lockwood  P. Weissman 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1997,45(6):799-812

In the Southampton Water estuary (southern England, U.K.), red-tides caused by the planktonic, phototrophic ciliateMesodinium rubrum(=Myrionecta rubra) occur during most summers and sometimes in autumn. These events were investigated in detail between 1985 and 1987 and were characterized by levels of chlorophylla(chl a) of over 100 μg l⁻¹, cell numbers ofM. rubrumof over 1×10³ ml⁻¹, oxygen saturations of around 150%, and depleted numbers of macrozooplankton. Initiation of red-water did not appear to be triggered by irradiance or nutrients, but coincided with an increase in temperature and water column stability. This enhanced stability was promoted by increased surface to bottom gradients of both temperature and salinity, and by reduced mixing during neap tides. Development of red-water was accompanied by removal of most of the dissolved NH⁺₄from the water column, whereas some NO⁻₃persisted, presumably maintained by freshwater input. NO⁻₃and NH⁺₄gradually returned to pre-bloom concentrations as the red-water declined in late summer. Maximal biomass ofM. rubrumappeared to be limited by irradiance, and self-shading probably imposed an upper limit of around 300 mg chl a m⁻²within the water column. At the observed levels of chl a, irradiance values within the population maximum between 1 and 3 m depth were only just of the order (≈15 μmol photons m⁻² s⁻¹) required to balance estimated respiratory demands. Oxygen concentration became undersaturated during the late bloom phase, with minimal values of 20–30% saturation recorded in deeper waters; however, despite this and reduced numbers of macrozooplankton, direct deleterious effects on other organisms were not observed.  相似文献   

Transient phenomena in the energetic behind-the-limb solar flare of september 29, 1989     

A. Bhatnagar  R. M. Jain  J. T. Burkepile  I. M. Chertok  A. Magun  H. Urbarz  P. Zlobec 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,243(1):209-213

The powerful cosmic ray flare of Sept. 29, 1989 occurred behind the limb and was observed over a wide spectral range. The analysis of optical, radio, and other relevant data suggest two phases of energy release. After an impulsive phase a prolonged post eruption energy release occurred in an extended region of the corona following the eruption of a large coronal mass ejection (CME). This phase is responsible for numerous coronal and interplanetary phenomena including the ground-level increase of cosmic rays.  相似文献   

Planetary Nebulae     

P. Cox 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,255(1-2):489-497

This review summarizes spectroscopic and imaging results obtained on board the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) on well-known planetary nebulae: the young nebula NGC 7027, and two fully evolved nearby nebulae, the Dumbbell and the Helix. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

The mass of the white dwarf in the recurrent nova U Scorpii     

T.D. Thoroughgood  V.S. Dhillon  S.P. Littlefair  T.R. Marsh  D.A. Smith 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,327(4):1323-1333

We present spectroscopy of the eclipsing recurrent nova U Sco. The radial velocity semi-amplitude of the primary star was found to be     from the motion of the wings of the He  ii λ 4686-Å emission line. By detecting weak absorption features from the secondary star, we find its radial velocity semi-amplitude to be     . From these parameters, we obtain a mass of     for the white dwarf primary star and a mass of     for the secondary star. The radius of the secondary is calculated to be     , confirming that it is evolved. The inclination of the system is calculated to be     , consistent with the deep eclipse seen in the light-curves. The helium emission lines are double-peaked, with the blueshifted regions of the disc being eclipsed prior to the redshifted regions, clearly indicating the presence of an accretion disc. The high mass of the white dwarf is consistent with the thermonuclear runaway model of recurrent nova outbursts, and confirms that U Sco is the best Type Ia supernova progenitor currently known. We predict that U Sco is likely to explode within ∼700 000 yr.  相似文献