Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather     

Paul Joe  Cliff Crozier  Norman Donaldson  Dave Etkin  Erik Brun  Steve Clodman 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):249-302

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.  相似文献   

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society     

Austin H. Becker  Michele Acciaro  Regina Asariotis  Edgard Cabrera  Laurent Cretegny  Philippe Crist  Miguel Esteban  Andrew Mather  Steve Messner  Susumu Naruse  Adolf K. Y. Ng  Stefan Rahmstorf  Michael Savonis  Dong-Wook Song  Vladimir Stenek  Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.  相似文献   

The Oxford Principles     

Steve Rayner  Clare Heyward  Tim Kruger  Nick Pidgeon  Catherine Redgwell  Julian Savulescu 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):499-512

Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols.  相似文献   

Erratum to “TOADs have WARTs! …and other oddities in CVs related to their secondary stars and accretion disks”: [New Astronomy Reviews 44 (2000) 33]     

Steve B. Howell  Warren Skidmore 《New Astronomy Reviews》2002,46(12):33

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No evidence for a different accretion mode for all 3CR FR I radio galaxies     

Xinwu Cao  Steve Rawlings 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,349(4):1419-1427

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Instruments, Detectors and the Future of Astronomy with Large Ground Based Telescopes     

Douglas A. Simons  Paola Amico  Dietrich Baade  Sam Barden  Randall Campbell  Gert Finger  Kirk Gilmore  Roland Gredel  Paul Hickson  Steve Howell  Norbert Hubin  Andreas Kaufer  Ralf Kohley  Philip MacQueen  Sergej Markelov  Mike Merrill  Satoshi Miyazaki  Hidehiko Nakaya  Darragh O'Donoghue  Tino Oliva  Andrea Richichi  Derrick Salmon  Ricardo Schmidt  Hongjun Su  Simon Tulloch  Maria Luisa García Vargas  R. Mark Wagner  Olivier Wiecha  Binxun Ye 《Experimental Astronomy》2005,19(1-3):15-44

Results of a survey of instrumentation and detector systems, either currently deployed or planned for use at telescopes larger than 3.5 m, in ground based observatories world-wide, are presented. This survey revealed a number of instrumentation design trends at optical, near, and mid-infrared wavelengths. Some of the most prominent trends include the development of vastly larger optical detector systems (> 10⁹ pixels) than anything built to date, and the frequent use of mosaics of near-infrared detectors – something that was quite rare only a decade ago in astronomy. Some future science applications for detectors are then explored, in an attempt to build a bridge between current detectors and what will be needed to support the research ambitions of astronomers in the future.  相似文献   

Substructure analysis of selected low-richness 2dFGRS clusters of galaxies     

William S. Burgett  Michael M. Vick  David S. Davis  Matthew Colless  Roberto De Propris  Ivan Baldry  Carlton Baugh  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Nicholas Cross  Gavin Dalton  Simon Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Edward Hawkins  Carole Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Steve Maddox  Darren Madgwick  Peder Norberg  John A. Peacock  Will Percival  Bruce Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,352(2):605-654

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Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles     

Chris Turney  Mike Baillie  Steve Clemens  David Brown  Jonathan Palmer  Jonathan Pilcher  Paula Reimer  Hanns Hubert Leuschner 《第四纪科学杂志》2005,20(6):511-518

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon‐dated bog and lake‐edge populations, extend the dataset back to ～9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Implications for unified schemes from submillimetre and far-infrared follow-up of radio-selected samples     

Jennifer A. Grimes  Steve Rawlings  Chris J. Willott 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,359(4):1345-1355

We extend our previous analysis which used generalized luminosity functions (GLFs) to predict the number of quasars and galaxies in low-radio-frequency-selected samples as a function of redshift, radio luminosity, narrow-emission-line luminosity and type of unified scheme. Our extended analysis incorporates the observed submillimetre (850-μm) flux densities of radio sources, employs a new method which allows us to deal with non-detections, and focuses on the high-luminosity population. First, we conclude that the submillimetre luminosity L ₈₅₀ of low-frequency-selected radio sources is correlated with the bolometric luminosity L _bol of their quasar nuclei via an approximate scaling relation   L ₈₅₀∝ L ^0.7±0.2_bol  . Secondly, we conclude that there is quantitative evidence for a receding-torus-like physical process for the high-luminosity population within a two-population unified scheme for radio sources; this evidence comes from the fact that radio quasars are brighter in both narrow emission lines and submillimetre luminosity than radio galaxies matched in radio luminosity and redshift. Thirdly, we note that the combination of a receding-torus-like scheme and the assumption that the observed submillimetre emission is dominated by quasar-heated dust yields a scaling relation   L ₈₅₀∝ L ^1/2_bol  which is within the errors of that determined here for radio-selected quasars, and consistent with that inferred for radio-quiet quasars.  相似文献   

Spectroscopic follow-up of a cluster candidate at z= 1.45     

Caroline van Breukelen  Garret Cotter  Steve Rawlings  Tony Readhead  David Bonfield  Lee Clewley  Rob Ivison  Matt Jarvis  Chris Simpson  Mike Watson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,382(3):971-984

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