The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: luminosity dependence of galaxy clustering     

Peder Norberg  Carlton M. Baugh  Ed Hawkins  Steve Maddox  John A. Peacock  Shaun Cole  Carlos S. Frenk  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto De Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Karl Glazebrook  Carole Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Darren Madgwick  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,328(1):64-70

We investigate the dependence of the strength of galaxy clustering on intrinsic luminosity using the Anglo-Australian two degree field galaxy redshift survey (2dFGRS). The 2dFGRS is over an order of magnitude larger than previous redshift surveys used to address this issue. We measure the projected two-point correlation function of galaxies in a series of volume-limited samples. The projected correlation function is free from any distortion of the clustering pattern induced by peculiar motions and is well described by a power law in pair separation over the range     . The clustering of     galaxies in real space is well-fitted by a correlation length     and power-law slope     . The clustering amplitude increases slowly with absolute magnitude for galaxies fainter than M *, but rises more strongly at higher luminosities. At low luminosities, our results agree with measurements from the Southern Sky Redshift Survey 2 by Benoist et al. However, we find a weaker dependence of clustering strength on luminosity at the highest luminosities. The correlation function amplitude increases by a factor of 4.0 between     and −22.5, and the most luminous galaxies are 3.0 times more strongly clustered than L * galaxies. The power-law slope of the correlation function shows remarkably little variation for samples spanning a factor of 20 in luminosity. Our measurements are in very good agreement with the predictions of the hierarchical galaxy formation models of Benson et al.  相似文献   

Environmental changes on Yugorski Peninsula, Kara Sea, Russia, during the last 12,800 radiocarbon years     

Andrei A. Andreev  William F. Manley   lafur Inglfsson  Steve L. Forman 《Global and Planetary Change》2001,31(1-4)

New pollen and radiocarbon data from an 8.6-m coastal section, Cape Shpindler (69°43′N; 62°48′E), Yugorski Peninsula, document the latest Pleistocene and Holocene environmental history of this low Arctic region. Twelve AMS ¹⁴C dates indicate that the deposits accumulated since about 13,000 until 2000 radiocarbon years BP. A thermokarst lake formed ca. 13,000–12,800 years BP, when scarce arctic tundra vegetation dominated the area. By 12,500 years BP, a shallow lake existed at the site, and Arctic tundra with Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Salix, Saxifraga, and Artemisia dominated nearby vegetation. Climate was colder than today. Betula nana became dominant during the Early Preboreal period about 9500 years BP, responding to a warm event, which was one of the warmest during the Holocene. Decline in B. nana and Salix after 9500 years BP reflects a brief event of Preboreal cooling. A subsequent increase in Betula and Alnus fruticosa pollen percentages reflects amelioration of environmental conditions at the end of Preboreal period (ca. 9300 years BP). A decline in arboreal taxa later, with a dramatic increase in herb taxa, reflects a short cold event at about 9200 years BP. The pollen data reflect a northward movement of tree birch, peaking at the middle Boreal period, around 8500 years BP. Open Betula forest existed on the Kara Sea coast of the Yugorski Peninsula during the Atlantic period (8000–4500 years BP), indicating that climate was significantly warmer than today. Deteriorating climate around the Atlantic–Subboreal boundary (ca. 4500 years BP) is recorded by a decline in Betula percentages. Sedimentation slowed at the site, and processes of denudation and/or soil formation started at the beginning of the Subatlantic period, when vegetation cover on Yugorski Peninsula shifted to near-modern assemblages.  相似文献   

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the environmental dependence of galaxy star formation rates near clusters     

Ian Lewis  Michael Balogh  Roberto De Propris  Warrick Couch  Richard Bower  Alison Offer  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Ivan K. Baldry  Carlton Baugh  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Nicholas Cross  Gavin Dalton  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Edward Hawkins  Carole Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Stuart Lumsden  Steve Maddox  Darren Madgwick  Peder Norberg  John A. Peacock  Will Percival  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,334(3):673-683

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Galaxy groups in the Two-degree Field Galaxy Redshift Survey: the luminous content of the groups     

V. R. Eke  Carlos S. Frenk  Carlton M. Baugh  Shaun Cole  Peder Norberg  John A. Peacock  Ivan K. Baldry  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto de Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Karl Glazebrook  Carole A. Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Steve J. Maddox  Darren Madgwick  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,355(3):769-784

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Decadal‐Scale Changes of the Ödenwinkelkees,Central Austria,Suggest Increasing Control of Topography and Evolution Towards Steady State          下载免费PDF全文

Jonathan L. Carrivick  Katie Berry  Martin Geilhausen  William H.M. James  Christopher Williams  Lee E. Brown  David M. Rippin  Steve J. Carver 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2015,97(3):543-562

Small mountain glaciers have short mass balance response times to climate change and are consequently very important for short‐term contributions to sea level. However, a distinct research and knowledge gap exists between (1) wider regional studies that produce overview patterns and trends in glacier changes, and (2) in situ local scale studies that emphasise spatial heterogeneity and complexity in glacier responses to climate. This study of a small glacier in central Austria presents a spatiotemporally detailed analysis of changes in glacier geometry and changes in glaciological behaviour. It integrates geomorphological surveys, historical maps, aerial photographs, airborne LiDAR data, ground‐based differential global positioning surveys and Ground Penetrating Radar surveys to produce three‐dimensional glacier geometry at 13 time increments spanning from 1850 to 2013. Glacier length, area and volume parameters all generally showed reductions with time. The glacier equilibrium line altitude increased by 90 m between 1850 and 2008. Calculations of the mean bed shear stress rapidly approaching less than 100 kPA, of the volume–area ratio fast approaching 1.458, and comparison of the geometric reconstructions with a 1D theoretical model could together be interpreted to suggest evolution of the glacier geometry towards steady state. If the present linear trend in declining ice volume continues, then the Ödenwinkelkees will disappear by the year 2040, but we conceptualise that non‐linear effects of bed overdeepenings on ice dynamics, of supraglacial debris cover on the surface energy balance, and of local topographically driven controls, namely wind‐redistributed snow deposition, avalanching and solar shading, will become proportionally more important factors in the glacier net balance.  相似文献   

Formation of the enigmatic Matoush uranium deposit in the Paleoprotozoic Otish Basin,Quebec, Canada     

Paul Alexandre  Kurt Kyser  Daniel Layton-Matthews  Steve R. Beyer  Eric E. Hiatt  Jonathan Lafontaine 《Mineralium Deposita》2015,50(7):825-845

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Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather     

Paul Joe  Cliff Crozier  Norman Donaldson  Dave Etkin  Erik Brun  Steve Clodman 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):249-302

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.  相似文献   

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

L. Goddard  A. Kumar  A. Solomon  D. Smith  G. Boer  P. Gonzalez  V. Kharin  W. Merryfield  C. Deser  S. J. Mason  B. P. Kirtman  R. Msadek  R. Sutton  E. Hawkins  T. Fricker  G. Hegerl  C. A. T. Ferro  D. B. Stephenson  G. A. Meehl  T. Stockdale  R. Burgman  A. M. Greene  Y. Kushnir  M. Newman  J. Carton  I. Fukumori  T. Delworth 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):245-272

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.  相似文献   

Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century     

Wilfried Winiwarter  Jan Willem Erisman  James N. Galloway  Zbigniew Klimont  Mark A. Sutton 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):889-901

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.  相似文献   

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society     

Austin H. Becker  Michele Acciaro  Regina Asariotis  Edgard Cabrera  Laurent Cretegny  Philippe Crist  Miguel Esteban  Andrew Mather  Steve Messner  Susumu Naruse  Adolf K. Y. Ng  Stefan Rahmstorf  Michael Savonis  Dong-Wook Song  Vladimir Stenek  Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.  相似文献