Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios     

Steven K. Rose  Richard Richels  Steve Smith  Keywan Riahi  Jessica Strefler  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):511-525

Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5–10 % by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution—with the later declining to as much as 50 % and 80 % below today’s levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone—e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45–85 % by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.  相似文献   

Development of warm SST errors in the southern tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts     

Thomas Toniazzo  Steve Woolnough 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(11):2889-2913

SST errors in the tropical Atlantic are large and systematic in current coupled general-circulation models. We analyse the growth of these errors in the region of the south-eastern tropical Atlantic in initialised decadal hindcasts integrations for three of the models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5. A variety of causes for the initial bias development are identified, but a crucial involvement is found, in all cases considered, of ocean-atmosphere coupling for their maintenance. These involve an oceanic “bridge” between the Equator and the Benguela-Angola coastal seas which communicates sub-surface ocean anomalies and constitutes a coupling between SSTs in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic and the winds over the Equator. The resulting coupling between SSTs, winds and precipitation represents a positive feedback for warm SST errors in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic.  相似文献   

African Inland Fisheries: Experiences with Co-Management and Policies of Decentralization   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Roger Lewins  Malloum Ousman Baba  Emma Belal  Steve Donda  Abbagana Mamane Lamine 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(4):405-420

Most countries in Africa have promoted some form of decentralized fisheries management either as discrete co-management projects or as a component of broader decentralization processes that cut across other sectors. These initiatives were shaped by an international policy narrative that emphasises participation in decision making and development. A review of fisheries decentralization experiences in Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria, and Malawi reveals marked differences in purpose, strategy, and performance. In general, co-management projects are limited by their ability to scale up new practice and to maintain viable and representative management institutions. In other cases, the decentralization process is not well supported politically or locally or does not articulate with fisheries policy. Experiences of decentralization in other sectors provide useful lessons. Acknowledging the informal institutional environment or realpolitikof fisheries and the rural economy could provide opportunities to better manage and review the process of decentralization.  相似文献   

Experts' Perspectives on the Integration of Indigenous Knowledge and Science in Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management     

Monica Gratani  Erin L. Bohensky  James R.A. Butler  Stephen G. Sutton  Simon Foale 《The Australian geographer》2014,45(2):167-184

Aboriginal inhabitants of the Wet Tropics of Queensland advocate for greater inclusion of their Indigenous knowledge (IK) in natural resource management (NRM) to fulfil their customary obligations to country and to exert their Native Title rights. Despite a legal and institutional framework for inclusion of IK in NRM, IK has so far been applied only sporadically. We conducted an ethnographic case study to investigate perceptions on IK, science and how they affect integration of the two knowledge systems in the Wet Tropics. Our results show that IK and science are perceived as different concepts; that integration is limited by weak Indigenous internal and external governance; and that stronger Aboriginal governance and more focused engagement strategies are required to further the application of IK in local NRM. We conclude by arguing that NRM in the Wet Tropics needs to be reconceptualised to accommodate IK holistically, by considering its epistemology and the values and ethic that underpin it.  相似文献   

Entanglement of Antarctic fur seals at Bouvetøya, Southern Ocean     

Greg Hofmeyr GJ  Bester MN  Kirkman SP  Lydersen C  Kovacs KM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(9):1077-1080

Entanglements of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella were recorded during four summers from 1996 to 2002 at the subantarctic island, Bouvetøya. Rates of entanglement varied between 0.024% and 0.059%. These rates are low for a pinniped population and might be because of the geographic isolation of the haulout site. An apparent decrease in the levels of entanglement over the course of the study was likely due, at least in part, to the removal of entanglements by observers. At least two-thirds of entangling materials were generated by fishery sources. Since there is no known local source of anthropogenic marine pollution, seals become entangled either in waters distant from the island, or when materials drift into local waters. Significantly more subadults were found entangled than expected from the postulated population age class distribution.  相似文献   

The Great Dun Fell Experiment 1995: an overview     

K. N. Bower  T. W. Choularton  M. W. Gallagher  R. N. Colvile  K. M. Beswick  D. W. F. Inglis  C. Bradbury  B. G. Martinsson  E. Swietlicki  O. H. Berg  S. -I. Cederfelt  G. Frank  J. Zhou  J. N. Cape  M. A. Sutton  G. G. McFadyen  C. Milford  W. Birmili  B. A. Yuskiewicz  A. Wiedensohler  F. Stratmann  M. Wendisch  A. Berner  P. Ctyroky  Z. Galambos  S. H. Mesfin  U. Dusek  C. J. Dore  D. S. Lee  S. A. Pepler  M. Bizjak  B. Divjak 《Atmospheric Research》1999,50(3-4)

During March and April of 1995 a major international field project was conducted at the UMIST field station site on Great Dun Fell in Cumbria, Northern England. The hill cap cloud which frequently envelopes this site was used as a natural flow through reactor to examine the sensitivity of the cloud microphysics to the aerosol entering the cloud and also to investigate the effects of the cloud in changing the aerosol size distribution, chemical composition and associated optical properties. To investigate these processes, detailed measurements of the cloud water chemistry (including the chemistry of sulphur compounds, organic and inorganic oxidised nitrogen and ammonia), cloud microphysics and properties of the aerosol and trace gas concentrations upwind and downwind of the cap cloud were undertaken. It was found that the cloud droplet number was generally strongly correlated to aerosol number concentration, with up to 2000 activated droplets cm⁻³ being observed in the most polluted conditions. In such conditions it was inferred that hygroscopic organic compounds were important in the activation process. Often, the size distribution of the aerosol was substantially modified by the cloud processing, largely due to the aqueous phase oxidation of S(IV) to sulphate by hydrogen peroxide, but also through the uptake and fixing of gas phase nitric acid as nitrate, increasing the calculated optical scattering of the aerosol substantially (by up to 24%). New particle formation was also observed in the ultrafine aerosol mode (at about 5 nm) downwind of the cap cloud, particularly in conditions of low total aerosol surface area and in the presence of ammonia and HCl gases. This was seen to occur at night as well as during the day via a mechanism which is not yet understood. The implications of these results for parameterising aerosol growth in Global Climate Models are explored.  相似文献   

Advancing understanding in data-limited conditions: estimating contributions to streamflow across Tanzania’s rapidly developing Kilombero Valley     

Alexander J. Koutsouris  Steve W. Lyon 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(2):197-209

Large seasonal variability in precipitation patterns may help overcome data limitations and difficult conditions when characterizing hydrological flow pathways. We used a limited amount of weekly water chemistry as well as stable water isotope data to perform end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) in a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework in a sub-catchment of the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. While there were considerable uncertainties related to the characterization and mixing of end-members, some robust estimates could be made on contributions to seasonal streamflow variability. For example, there is a low connectivity between the deep groundwater and the stream system throughout the year. Also, a considerable wetting-up period is required before overland flow occurs. Thus, in spite of large uncertainties, our results highlight how improved system understanding of hydrological flows can be obtained even when working in difficult environments.  相似文献   

Research Note: Low-frequency pneumatic seismic sources     

Steve Chelminski  Leighton M. Watson  Shuki Ronen 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(6):1547-1556

Pneumatic seismic sources, commonly known as airguns, have been serving us well for decades, but there is an increasing need for sources with improved low-frequency signal and reduced environmental impact. In this paper, we present a new pneumatic source that is designed to achieve these goals by operating with lower pressures and larger volumes. The new source will release more air creating larger bubbles with longer bubble periods than airguns. The release of the air will be tuned so that the rise time will be longer and the sound pressure level and its slope will be lower. Certain engineering features will eliminate cavitation. Larger bubbles increase low-frequency content of the signal, longer rise times decrease mid-frequency content and the elimination of cavitation reduces high-frequency content. We have not yet built a full-scale version of the new source. However, we have manufactured a small-scale low-pressure source incorporating most of the engineering features, and tested it in a lake. Here, we present the lake data that, as expected, show a significant reduction in the sound pressure level, increase in rise time, decrease in slope and decrease in high-frequency content while maintaining the same low-frequency content when the source prototype is operated at low pressure compared with high pressure. Synthetic data produced by numerical modelling of the full-scale proposed pneumatic source suggest that the new source will improve the low-frequency content and can produce geophysically useful signal down to 1 Hz.  相似文献   

The transition from porphyry- to epithermal-style gold mineralization at Ladolam, Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea: a reconnaissance study   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Daniel Müller  Klaus Kaminski  Stephan Uhlig  Torsten Graupner  Peter M. Herzig  Steve Hunt 《Mineralium Deposita》2002,37(1):61-74

The exceptionally large gold resource at Ladolam (>1,300 metric tons of gold), Lihir Island, resulted from the transition of an early-stage, low-grade porphyry gold system to a low-sulfidation epithermal gold event. This transition was probably triggered by rapid decompression during the partial slope failure of Luise stratovolcano and accompanied by the ingress of seawater. The original porphyry stage is indicated by remnant hydrothermal breccia clasts of strongly biotite-magnetite altered monzodiorite with disseminated pyrite - chalcopyrite and poorly developed pyrite - quartz stockwork veins. The breccias are overprinted by biotite-magnetite alteration and their matrix is strongly mineralized with disseminated auriferous pyrite. The breccias are cut by late-stage epithermal quartz-chalcedony-illite-adularia-pyrite veins and associated illite-adularia alteration that locally contain bonanza gold grades of up to 120 g/t. Isotope data suggest a magmatic source of sulfur in the gold-bearing fluids at Ladolam. Electronic supplementary material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer LINK server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00126-001-0230-y  相似文献   

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models     

Ana M. Nobre  João G. Ferreira  João P. Nunes  Xiaojun Yan  Suzanne Bricker  Richard Corner  Steve Groom  Haifeng Gu  Anthony J.S. Hawkins  Rory Hutson  Dongzhao Lan  João D. Lencart e Silva  Philip Pascoe  Trevor Telfer  Xuelei Zhang  Mingyuan Zhu 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%–28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of coastal management regulation, for instance in the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.  相似文献