Cloud–aerosol coupled index in estimating the break phase of Indian summer monsoon     

Sutapa Chaudhuri  Jayanti Pal 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(3):447-464

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is largely influenced by intra-seasonal variability like break and active phases of monsoon. In the present study, different cloud and aerosol parameters are considered and analyzed to formulate a cloud–aerosol coupled index (CACI) that can aid in forecasting the break phase of ISM. The method of principal component analysis is implemented to identify the significant cloud and aerosol parameters during break and active phases of ISM. The threshold ranges of each parameter are evaluated by using the normal probability density function. The result reveals that for break phase, the significant parameters are cloud water path (CWP), cloud optical depth, aerosol index, zonal wind (ZW), and meridional wind (MW) at 850 hPa pressure level whereas for active phase, the parameters found to be important are aerosol optical depth, CWP, ZW, and MW at 850 hPa pressure level. The significantly correlated (p?相似文献   

Track prediction of Indian Ocean cyclones using Lagrangian advection model     

Sanjeev Kumar Singh  C. M. Kishtawal  P. K. Pal 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(3):745-778

A new model has been developed for track prediction of Indian Ocean cyclones. The model utilizes environmental steering flow using the forecasts from a high-resolution global model and the effect due to earth??s rotation (the beta-effect) to determine the future movement of cyclone. A new approach based on vertical profile of potential vorticity is used to determine weights for different vertical levels for computation of mean steering current. Despite the fact that the model is based on the dynamical framework, the operational cost and time for running the model is only a fraction of what is needed by a normal numerical weather prediction model. This new approach will enhance flexibility in defining the initial position of the cyclone in the model, and also, it is possible to create a large ensemble of predicted tracks to assess the impact of the uncertainty of initial cyclone position on the predicted tracks. The performance of the model for ten cyclones, viz. GONU (02?C08 Jun, 2007), SIDR (11?C16 November, 2007), NARGIS (27 Apr?C04 May, 2008), RASHMI (25?C27 October, 2008) KHAI-MUK (14?C16 November, 2008), NISHA (25?C27 November, 2008), SEVEN (04?C08 December, 2008), BIJLI (14?C18 April, 2009), AILA (23?C26 May, 2009), and PHYAN (09?C11 November, 2009), have been tested in the present study. The forecast errors of the present model have been computed with respect to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center best track analysis positions. The forecast skill improvement (mean of ten cyclones) of the model with respect to the Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) statistical model varies from 7 to 67?% between 12 and 72?h.  相似文献   

Markov chain model to study the occurrence of pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar,India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Surajit Chattopadhyay  Nachiketa Acharya  Goutami Chattopadhyay  Siripurapu Kiran Prasad  Uma Charan Mohanty 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2012,344(10):473-482

The present work deals with pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar belonging to the state of Orissa, India. A Markovian approach has been adopted to discern the probabilistic behavior of the time series of the occurrence and non-occurrence of this hazardous weather event by introducing a dichotomy within the time series. After a painstaking analysis through chi-square tests, we have identified serial independence in a few years and first-order two-state Markovian dependence in a few years (2000, 2001, 2004 and 2006). Finally, for the years of first-order two-state Markovian dependence, it has been observed that the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of thunderstorm gets higher if the state of the previous day is similar to that of the current day. Furthermore, the probability of getting non-thunderstorm day followed by non-thunderstorm day is higher than the probability of getting thunderstorm day followed by thunderstorm day. It has been also observed that the unconditional climatological probability of the occurrence of severe pre-monsoon thunderstorm implied by the Markov chain is closely in agreement with the observed relative frequencies. However, it could be revealed that Markov chain cannot, in general, be suggested as a predictive tool for pre-monsoon thunderstorms under study without investigating the serial dependence inherent in the time series.  相似文献   

Response of lakes in Eastern Fennoscandia and Eastern Antarctica to climate changes     

N. N. Filatov  A. P. Georgiev  T. V. Efremova  L. E. Nazarova  N. I. Pal’shin  L. A. Rukhovets  A. V. Tolstikov  A. N. Sharov 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2012,444(2):752-755

  相似文献   

Conditions of formation of Cr-pyrope and escolaite during mantle metasomatism: Experimental modeling     

Yu. V. Bataleva  Yu. N. Pal’yanov  A. G. Sokol  Yu. M. Borzdov  N. V. Sobolev 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2012,442(1):76-80

  相似文献   

Apurba Kanta Choudhury (1938–2012)     

A. K. Majumdar  Chinmoy Pal 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2012,80(5):740-740

  相似文献   

Generation of emissivity and land surface temperature maps using MODIS TIR data for lithological mapping over the Singhbhum-Orissa Craton     

T. J. Majumdar  S. K. Pal  Amit K. Bhattacharya 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2012,80(5):685-699

The present study was undertaken with four fold objectives, namely, (i) to estimate land surface temperature using MODIS TIR data; (ii) to calculate relative emissivities from MODIS TIR data; (iii) to identify various lithologies based on relative emissivity and land surface temperature estimation; and finally, (iv) to carry out comparative assessment analysis between the prepared lithological map and the published lithological map. The land surface temperatures for different pixels were estimated using two methods, viz., Reference Channel and Emissivity Normalization; whereas, relative emissivities were calculated by applying three methods, viz., Reference Channel, Emissivity Normalization and Alpha Residual. Lithological maps were subsequently prepared based on the estimated land surface temperatures and relative emissivity values. The present study shows that the Emissivity Normalization method gives the best results for land surface temperature estimation and also for lithological discrimination based on emissivity estimation. Twenty-four lithounits demarcated by the present study match with those of the published map, while four lithounits of the published map could not be identified in the present study. On the other hand, six additional unclassified lithounits could be demarcated in the present study, which need to be crosschecked by field study.  相似文献   

侏罗纪末至白垩纪非海相介形类生物地层学:回顾与展望     

Benjamin SAMES  David J.HORNE 《地层学杂志》2012,(2):266-288

以非海相介形类为依据而建立的侏罗纪末至白垩纪的生物地层学,尤其是欧洲所谓"Purbeck-Wealden层段"(提塘阶顶部至巴列姆阶/阿普特阶底部)和全球同期沉积层的生物地层学建立已久,但这一生物地层学存有很多问题与局限性。本文对中生代晚期(聚焦于早白垩世)的非海相介形类生物地层学的基本原理、历史、目前进展、存在问题和前景进行了综述。因为介形类的繁殖、扩散与成种机制已有比较成熟的研究,所以介形类的生物地层学的应用潜力被认识已久。然而,全球不同地区中生代晚期的非海相介形类众多的研究积累已构成了一个丰富但常常混乱和矛盾的文献库。这些问题不仅存在于介形类的分类鉴定中,也见于关于古环境和系统发育的解释中。虽然地区性的盆地内的介形类生物地层学研究已产生了好结果,并可能能够用于局部地区的高精度对比。但是在进行地区间(盆地间至全球)的对比时,其实用性广遭怀疑。在过去的二十年间,许多学者采用了将今论古的古生物学研究方法,努力修订和更新中生代晚期的非海相介形类的生物地层学与古环境意义,从而促进了地区间生物地层学研究和对比的发展。古生物学家认识到,对于许多非海相介形类动物来讲,它们的分布和扩散不仅仅局限于单个的水系或较小的地理区域,而是和现生的非海相介形类一样,晚侏罗世至白垩纪的非海相介形类动物和它们的卵可被较大的动物或风长距离搬运,跨越迁移的屏障,进行扩散。鉴于以上事实,地区间的对比必须涉及两大内容:分类学的应用与古环境背景。缺乏适用于地区—全球的稳定和一致的分类学系统是进行正确对比的重要障碍。由于大量地方性分类命名、地方性特有动物的假设、与壳体特征相关的分类和生态型认识的混乱,以及对种内变异尺度的统一认识的缺乏,导致了对生物分异度的过高或过低的估量。非海相白垩纪介形类的地层记录受到诸多因素的影响:分类单元的演化与灭绝、扩散事件、当地的环境变化和地区性至全球的气候变迁。在生物地层学的应用中,我们可以通过不同手段去把握同时代的Cytheroidea,特别是Cypridoidea中具重要地层意义的Cypridea属及其亲近者(即CypridoideaMartin,1940)的分类单元的形态变异度。解释种内变异时需要格外谨慎。区分生物自生(内因)导致的变异(遗传的和形态的变异)和环境(外因)导致的变异(生态表型)是一大难题。比较保守的分类学观念(分类单元很少,但变异极大(分类单元中包含了多种生态表型))有助于不同古环境间的(生物地层)对比。另一方法是运用随着时间的古环境变化及其对介形类组合的组成的影响来进行(生物地层)对比。古生物工作者已在利用受环境控制的周期性介形类组合变化建立对比关系方面进行了大量有意义的尝试,但这些工作仍处在争议中。建立全球生物地层学方法,建立统一而持久的分类概念这一目标可以达到,但不可能在短期内实现。用现代的思想(概念)理解和研究非海相介形类的古生物学和古生物地理学及新资料将有助于修订工作的进展。尽管我们对中生代的非海相介形类的演化和分布的认识还很不全面,但目前我们已取得了可喜的进展。盆地间至大陆间的对比是否可行,早已不是问题。目前和未来的指导原则无疑是发展以介形类为基础,并与其他的年代地层学和地质年代学资料及方案相结合的从地区至全球范围的地层对比系统。因为我们正在迈向一个非海相晚中生代介形类生物地层学的重新解释和应用的新时代,我们必须承认我们还有许多东西需要学习。  相似文献   

High-Redshift Radio Galaxies from Deep Fields     

C. H. Ishwara-Chandra  S. K. Sirothia  Y. Wadadekar  S. Pal 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2011,32(4):609-612

Most of the radio galaxies with z > 3 have been found using the red-shift spectral index correlation. We have started a programme with the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) to exploit this correlation at flux density levels about 100 times deeper than the known high-redshift radio galaxies, with an aim to detect candidate high-redshift radio galaxies. Here we present results from the deep 150 MHz observations of LBDS-Lynx field, which has been imaged at 327, 610 and 1412 MHz with the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) and at 1400 and 4860 MHz with the Very Large Array (VLA). We find about 150 radio sources with spectra steeper than 1. About two-thirds of these are not detected in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), hence are strong candidate high-redshift radio galaxies, which need to be further explored with deep infra-red imaging and spectroscopy to estimate the red-shift.  相似文献   

Univariate modelling of summer-monsoon rainfall time series: Comparison between ARIMA and ARNN     

Surajit Chattopadhyay  Goutami Chattopadhyay 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(2):100-107

The present article reports studies to develop a univariate model to forecast the summer monsoon (June–August) rainfall over India. Based on the data pertaining to the period 1871–1999, the trend and stationarity within the time series have been investigated. After revealing the randomness and non-stationarity within the time series, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models have been attempted and the ARIMA(0,1,1) has been identified as a suitable representative model. Consequently, an autoregressive neural network (ARNN) model has been attempted and the neural network has been trained as a multilayer perceptron with the extensive variable selection procedure. Sigmoid non-linearity has been used while training the network. Finally, a three-three-one architecture of the ARNN model has been obtained and after thorough statistical analysis the supremacy of ARNN has been established over ARIMA(0,1,1). The usefulness of ARIMA(0,1,1) has also been described.  相似文献