Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions     

Hilary McMillan  Jim Freer  Florian Pappenberger  Tobias Krueger  Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The resin sealed column (RESECO) setup for flow-through experiments on solid rocks under high temperature and high pore pressure conditions     

Grifka  Jasmin  Heinze  Thomas  Licha  Tobias 《Hydrogeology Journal》2022,30(4):1327-1336

Hydrogeology Journal - High-pressure flow-through experiments on solid rock samples are commonly conducted with experimental setups using a confining pressure to restrict the flow to the rock....  相似文献   

Optimizing distance-based methods for large data sets     

Tobias Scholl  Thomas Brenner 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2015,17(4):333-351

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Determinants of the Price of High-Tech Metals: An Event Study     

Markus Wanner  Tobias Gaugler  Benedikt Gleich  Andreas Rathgeber 《Natural Resources Research》2015,24(2):139-159

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Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators     

Tobias Lung  Alessandro Dosio  William Becker  Carlo Lavalle  Laurens M. Bouwer 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):211-227

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options.  相似文献   

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the aquatic environment: Jerry M. Neff. Applied Science Publishers Ltd., London, 1979, 262 pp.     

R.A. Geyer 《Marine Chemistry》1981,10(2):167-168

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Identification of a blue object with a newly detected X-ray source     

Geyer  E. H.  Hoffmann  M. 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1983,95(2):291-298

An approximate analytical solution for self-similar flow behind a spherically-symmetric magnetogasdynamic strong shock wave is investigated using the method of Laumbach and Probstein (1969). The total energy of flow is taken to be dependent on the shock radius obeying a power law. The shock is propagating into a perfect gas at rest with non-uniform density and magnetic field.  相似文献   

Life beyond Earth: The intelligent Earthling's guide to life in the universe: By Gerald Feinberg and Robert Shapiro. Morrow,New York, 1980. 464 pp., $16.95 (hardcover), $9.95 (paperback)     

Tobias Owen 《Icarus》1981,46(1):133-135

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Monitoring directions and rates of change in trees outside forests through multitemporal analysis of map sequences   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tobias Plieninger 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):566-576

This study explores the potential of historical maps to detect, measure and monitor changes of trees outside forests. The main goal is to assess local-level changes of scattered trees and orchards and their land-use determinants in two areas in Southern Germany between 1901/1905 and 2009. Firstly, overall landscape changes are recorded. Secondly, the spatial-temporal trajectories of scattered trees and their land-use determinants are identified. Thirdly, changes in quantity and fragmentation patterns of traditional orchards are analyzed in their relationship to overall land-cover change. The results confirm major losses in scattered trees, mainly due to urbanization, agricultural intensification, and land abandonment. They further reveal that, while orchards have persisted in total area, they have undergone critical changes toward a simplified landscape structure and loss of the traditional land-use mosaic, which is a characterizing feature of high nature value landscapes. Multi-temporal assessment showed that most trends have been continuous and did not change directions over time, but rather accelerated during periods of rapid change (most dramatically in the 1950-1990 period). The case of orchards and scattered trees illustrates a major problem of cultural landscapes in Europe: Semi-natural landscape features of high nature value are threatened by both intensification and abandonment of land uses. This makes their conservation a potentially costly enterprise, as both opportunity costs for lost alternative land uses and for conservation management costs arise.  相似文献   

Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Tobias Siegfried  Thomas Bernauer  Renaud Guiennet  Scott Sellars  Andrew W. Robertson  Justin Mankin  Peter Bauer-Gottwein  Andrey Yakovlev 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):881-899

Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.  相似文献