Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland     

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  Mikołaj Piniewski  Abdelkader Mezghani  Tomasz Okruszko  Iwona Pińskwar  Ignacy Kardel  Øystein Hov  Mateusz Szcześniak  Małgorzata Szwed  Rasmus E. Benestad  Paweł Marcinkowski  Dariusz Graczyk  Andreas Dobler  Eirik J. Førland  Joanna O’Keefe  Adam Choryński  Kajsa M. Parding  Jan Erik Haugen 《Acta Geophysica》2018,66(6):1509-1523

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.  相似文献   

Do mowing regimes affect plant and soil biological activity in the mountain meadows of Southern Poland?     

Agnieszka Józefowska  Tomasz Zaleski  Jan Zarzycki  Krzysztof Frączek 《山地科学学报》2018,15(11):2409-2421

The soil biological activity of mountain meadows is a significant factor that determines the health and utility of these regions. The climax stage of this area is forest, but to maintain semi-natural grassland, which is characterised by high biodiversity,low-intensity land use(mowing or grazing) is necessarily required. To understand the effect of various mowing regimes on the soil biological activity and plants, the soil microbial activity(microbial biomass carbon, dehydrogenase activity and number of the cultivable fraction of soil microbial community),annelids community(density and species composition earthworms and enchytraeids) and plant species composition were investigated. The study area was located in the Pieniny National Park in the Carpathian Mountains, in a meadow belonging to the association Dactylis glomerata-Poa trivialis. The investigated variants were divided according to mowing regime:traditional scything – hand mowing(HM), mechanical mowing(MM), or the abandonment of mowing – nonmowing(NM). The microbial activities(expressed by,e.g. microbial biomass carbon and the number of phosphorus bacteria) were affected by the mowing regime. The density of earthworms was higher in the HM and MM than in the NM variants. The largest changes in plant species composition were caused by the abandonment of mowing(NM). The mean number of plant species was positively correlated with soil moisture, earthworm density, and microbial activity(expressed indirectly by dehydrogenases activity). The soil microbial community, such as vegetative bacteria forms and ammonifying bacteria,were positively associated with pH value, and the microbial and total organic carbon content. The results presented here indicate that there is no single form of optimal management for all living organisms.Decisions about mowing regimes, or abandonment of use, should be preceded by multi-aspect studies,including plants and soil biota.  相似文献   

Variations of atmospheric 14C concentrations over the Alleroød-Younger Dryas transition     

T. Goslar  B. Wohlfarth  S. Björck  G. Possnert  J. Björck 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(1):29-42

Highly variable atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations are a distinct feature during the last deglaciation. The synchronisation of two high-resolution AMS ¹⁴C-dated records, Lake Go?ci??, and a floating Late Weichselian glacial varve chronology at the Allerød-Younger Dryas transition allowed us to assess in detail atmospheric Δ¹⁴C changes between late Allerød and early Preboreal. The combined data set shows a drastic rise in Δ¹⁴C during the first 200 years or so of Younger Dryas and the two following about 500 year-long ¹⁴C plateaux. Model experiments which included variations in the geomagnetic field, atmospheric CO₂ variations and a drastic reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water flux at the onset of Younger Dryas allowed to reproduce the distinct rise in Δ¹⁴C during the first 200 years of Younger Dryas fairly well. Also the drop in Δ¹⁴C at the Younger Dryas/Holocene boundary seems reasonably explained by changes in North Atlantic Deep Water circulation. However, the reason behind the anomalous behaviour of the Δ¹⁴C signal in the middle of Younger Dryas remains an open question.  相似文献   

Forecasting sea level anomalies from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellite altimetry     

Tomasz Niedzielski  Wiesław Kosek 《Journal of Geodesy》2009,83(5):469-476

This paper aims at the prediction of both global mean sea level anomalies (SLAs) and gridded SLA data in the east equatorial Pacific obtained from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 altimetric measurements. The first prediction technique (denoted as LS) is based on the extrapolation of a polynomial-harmonic deterministic least-squares model describing a linear trend, annual and semi-annual oscillations. The second prediction method (denoted as LS + AR) is a combination of the extrapolation of a polynomial-harmonic model with the autoregressive forecast of LS residuals. In the case of forecasting global mean SLA data, both techniques allow one to compute the predictions of comparable accuracy (root mean square error for 1-month in the future is of 0.5 cm). In the case of predicting gridded SLA data, the LS + AR prediction method gains significantly better prediction accuracy than the accuracy obtained by the LS technique during El Niño 1997/1998, La Niña 1998/1999 and during normal conditions.  相似文献   

Remnants of altered meteorite in the Cretaceous‐Paleogene clay boundary in Poland          下载免费PDF全文

Krzysztof Szopa  Tomasz Brachaniec  Łukasz Karwowski  Tomasz Krzykawski 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2017,52(4):612-622

Fossil iron meteorites are extremely rare in the geological sedimentary record. The paleometeorite described here is the first such finding at the Cretaceous‐Paleogene (K‐Pg) boundary. In the boundary clay from the outcrop at the Lechówka quarry (Poland), fragments of the paleometeorite were found in the bottom part of the host layer. The fragments of meteorite (2–6 mm in size) and meteoritic dust are metallic‐gray in color and have a total weight of 1.8181 g. Geochemical and petrographic analyses of the meteorite from Lechówka reveal the presence of Ni‐rich minerals with a total Ni amount of 2–3 wt%. The identified minerals are taenite, kamacite, schreibersite, Ni‐rich magnetite, and Ni‐rich goethite. No relicts of silicates or chromites were found. The investigated paleometeorite apparently represents an independent fall and does not seem to be derived from the K‐Pg impactor. The high degree of weathering did not permit the chemical classification of the meteorite fragments. However, the recognized mineral inventory, lack of silicates, and their pseudomorphs and texture may indicate that the meteorite remains were an iron meteorite.  相似文献   

Response of a mountain‐foreland fluvial system to an advancing ice sheet,southern Poland     

Tomasz Salamon  Tomasz Zieli&#x;ski 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2019,48(3):695-712

In this paper, fluvial deposits of Middle Pleistocene age in the mountain‐foreland area of southern Poland (Eastern Sudetes and Western Carpathians) are studied in order to document the evolution of fluvial systems during the coldest stages of glacial periods when the Scandinavian Ice Sheet advanced far to the south. The focus is on fluvial response to climate change and glacial impact on river system behaviour. Also considered is the tectonic uplift of the mountain part of river catchments and its potential influence on the style of fluvial sedimentation in the fore‐mountain area. Three drainage basins that were active during the Elsterian and Saalian glaciations are investigated. Facies analyses are carried out on thick successions of braided river deposits covered with till or glaciolacustrine sediments, which result in a reconstruction of the fluvial activity synchronous with the ice‐sheet advance. The results suggest that fluvial activity declined prior to ice‐sheet advance into the fore‐mountain area. This climatically induced change is directly recorded in alluvial successions by upward‐decreasing bed thicknesses and grain sizes. River longitudinal profiles were shortened in front of the advancing ice sheet. The base level of the studied rivers, created by the ice‐sheet margin, rose in parallel with glacial advance. As a result, the successive reaches of rivers (degradational, transitional, aggradational) underwent shortening and moved upstream within the catchments. Moreover, tectonically induced local increases of river slopes may have influenced the depositional processes.  相似文献   

Seeking commonalities of community resilience to natural hazards: A cluster analysis approach     

Tomasz Opach  Sabrina Scherzer  Päivi Lujala  Jan Ketil Rød 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2020,74(3):181-199

ABSTRACT

The aim of the study on which the article is based was to identify groups of communities with similar resilience profiles, using Norwegian municipalities as a case. The authors used a set of socioeconomic and environmental indicators as measures of municipalities’ resilience and performed a cluster analysis to divide the municipalities into groups with similar multivariate resilience signatures. The results revealed six groups of municipalities that, apart from their unique combinations of indicator scores, featured certain spatial patterns, such as an “urban cluster” with urbanized municipalities and a “suburban cluster” with municipalities concentrated around major cities. The authors conclude that municipalities in each of the groups shared aspects that made them either more or less resilient to natural hazards, which could make them potential targets for shared interventions. Additionally, the authors conclude that clustering can be used to identify municipalities with similar resilience features and that could benefit from networking and sharing operational planning as a way to improve their respective communities' resilience to natural hazards.  相似文献   

On the estimation of higher-order ionospheric effects in precise point positioning     

Banville  Simon  Sieradzki  Rafal  Hoque  Mainul  Wezka  Kinga  Hadas  Tomasz 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(4):1817-1828

GPS Solutions - Higher-order ionospheric effects, if not properly accounted for, can propagate into geodetic parameter estimates. For this reason, several investigations have led to the development...  相似文献   

Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff     

Mikołaj Piniewski  Frank Voss  Ilona Bärlund  Tomasz Okruszko  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):737-754

Abstract

The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann

Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754.  相似文献   

Morphological evolution of the Guadiana estuary and intertidal zone in response to projected sea‐level rise and sediment supply scenarios     

Dissanayake M.R. Sampath  Tomasz Boski  Patricia L. Silva  Flavio A. Martins 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(2):156-170

Analysis of Holocene sediment accumulation in the Guadiana estuary (southern Portugal) during sea‐level rise since ca. 13 cal. ka BP was used to simulate the long‐term morphological evolution of the lower Guadiana estuary and the associated intertidal zone for 21st‐century predicted sea‐level rises. Three sea‐level rise scenarios given by the IPCC ( 2007 ) were used in the simulations of morphology using a large‐scale behaviour‐oriented modelling approach. Sedimentation rate scenarios were derived both from the Holocene evolution of the estuary and from a semi‐empirical estimation of present‐day sediment aggradation. Our results show that the net lateral expansion of the intertidal zone area would be about 3–5% of the present intertidal zone area for each 10 cm rise in sea level. Under constraints imposed by the lack of fluvial sediment supply, the lateral expansion of the landward boundary of the intertidal zone will occur mainly in the Portuguese margin of the Guadiana estuary, while submergence of the salt marshes will occur in the Spanish margin. Therefore the Spanish margin is highly vulnerable to both sea‐level rise and lack of sediment supply. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献