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Holger Frey Christian Huggel Yves Bühler Daniel Buis Maria Dulce Burga Walter Choquevilca Felipe Fernandez Javier García Hernández Claudia Giráldez Edwin Loarte Paul Masias Cesar Portocarrero Luis Vicuña Marco Walser 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1493-1507
The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country. 相似文献
43.
For numerical studies of geotechnical structures under earthquake loading, aiming to examine a possible failure due to liquefaction, using a sophisticated constitutive model for the soil is indispensable. Such a model must adequately describe the material response to a cyclic loading under constant volume (undrained) conditions, amongst others the relaxation of effective stress (pore pressure accumulation) or the effective stress loops repeatedly passed through after a sufficiently large number of cycles (cyclic mobility, stress attractors). The soil behaviour under undrained cyclic loading is manifold, depending on the initial conditions (e.g. density, fabric, effective mean pressure, stress ratio) and the load characteristics (e.g. amplitude of the cycles, application of stress or strain cycles). In order to develop, calibrate and verify a constitutive model with focus to undrained cyclic loading, the data from high-quality laboratory tests comprising a variety of initial conditions and load characteristics are necessary. The purpose of these two companion papers was to provide such database collected for a fine sand. The database consists of numerous undrained cyclic triaxial tests with stress or strain cycles applied to samples consolidated isotropically or anisotropically. Monotonic triaxial tests with drained or undrained conditions have also been performed. Furthermore, drained triaxial, oedometric or isotropic compression tests with several un- and reloading cycles are presented. Part I concentrates on the triaxial tests with monotonic loading or stress cycles. All test data presented herein will be available from the homepage of the first author. As an example of the examination of an existing constitutive model, the experimental data are compared to element test simulations using hypoplasticity with intergranular strain. 相似文献
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Hydrogeology Journal - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-021-02351-x 相似文献
48.
Matthias Lankhorst David Fratantoni Michel Ollitrault Philip Richardson Uwe Send Walter Zenk 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(10):1615-1632
A comprehensive analysis of velocity data from subsurface floats in the northwestern tropical Atlantic at two depth layers is presented: one representing the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW, pressure range 600–1050 dbar), the other the upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW, pressure range 1200–2050 dbar). New data from three independent research programs are combined with previously available data to achieve blanket coverage in space for the AAIW layer, while coverage in the uNADW remains more intermittent. Results from the AAIW mainly confirm previous studies on the mean flow, namely the equatorial zonal and the boundary currents, but clarify details on pathways, mostly by virtue of the spatial data coverage that sets float observations apart from e.g. shipborne or mooring observations. Mean transports in each of five zonal equatorial current bands is found to be between 2.7 and 4.5 Sv. Pathways carrying AAIW northward beyond the North Brazil Undercurrent are clearly visible in the mean velocity field, in particular a northward transport of 3.7 Sv across 16°N between the Antilles islands and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. New maps of Lagrangian eddy kinetic energy and integral time scales are presented to quantify mesoscale activity. For the uNADW, mean flow and mesoscale properties are discussed as data availability allows. Trajectories in the uNADW east of the Lesser Antilles reveal interactions between the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) and the basin interior, which can explain recent hydrographic observations of changes in composition of DWBC water along its southward flow. 相似文献
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Samples of the Mt Isa formation (Australia, c, 1.5 Ga), and the Shungit formation (U.S.S.R., c. 2.3 Ga) were studied by organic geochemical means. All samples were freed of any low-molecular-weight solvent soluble organic material in order to insure the authenticity of the analysed material. The isolation of biochemical compounds entrapped in sulfides was the major goal of this work.Organic compounds that were entrapped during the early stages of sulfide formation may obviously survive extended periods of time and can be released by a mild hydrogenation of the sulfides. Preliminary investigations of the hydrocarbon fraction indicate n-alkanes, monomethylalkanes, cycloalkanes, and an unknown series of branched alkanes as major constituents. Their distribution patterns show great selectivity with respect to structures and chain lengths of individual compounds. Differences between the hydrogenation reaction product and the sample extract may arise from the release of a different kind of lipid material through dissolution of the sulfides. 相似文献
50.
Samuel J. Oltmans Wolfgang E. Raatz Walter D. Komhyr 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1989,9(1-3):245-253
A series of nearly daily ozone vertical profiles obtained at station T-3 on Fletcher's Ice Island (85°N, 90°W) during the period January-March 1971 shows several significant ozone intrusions into the troposphere. These intrusions are not only associated with enhanced ozone amounts in the stratosphere but also require tropopause folding events to transport ozone into the troposphere. These folds in the Arctic tropopause appear to be capable of contributing significantly to the ozone budget of the Arctic troposphere during the late winter and spring seasons. The importance of tropopause folding for bringing ozone into the troposphere seen in the daily ozone profiles confirms the results found in the Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program aircraft flights. 相似文献