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31.
This paper presents a novel dynamical model to analyze the long‐term response of a percussive drilling system. This departs from existing approaches that usually consider a single activation and bit/rock interaction cycle for the analysis of the process performance. The proposed model integrates the axial dynamics of an elastic piston and an elastic drill bit, a motion‐dependent pressure law to drive the piston, and a generalized bit/rock interaction law representative of the dynamic indentation taking place at the bit/rock interface. It applies to down‐the‐hole percussive drilling as well as top‐hole, with minor modifications. The model does not account for the angular motion or the hole cleaning, however. The model is first formulated mathematically; then, a finite‐dimensional approximation is proposed for computations. Numerical analyses of the model response, for a low‐size down‐the‐hole percussive system, follow. The period‐1 stationary response for the reference configuration is studied in detail, and parametric analyses assessing the influence on the rate of penetration of the bit/rock interaction parameters, the feed force, and the percussive activation parameters are conducted. These analyses reveal that the multiscale nature of the process is well captured by the model and recover expected trends for the influence of the parameters. They also suggest that a significant increase of the penetration rate can be achieved by increasing the percussive frequency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
32.
Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 106 m3 year?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
33.
Direct measurements of plasma motions in the photosphere are limited to the line-of-sight component of the velocity. Several algorithms have therefore been developed to reconstruct the transverse components from observed continuum images or magnetograms. We compare the space and time averages of horizontal velocity fields in the photosphere inferred from pairs of consecutive intensitygrams by the LCT, FLCT, and CST methods and the DeepVel neural network in order to identify the method that is best suited for generating synthetic observations to be used for data assimilation. The Stein and Nordlund (Astrophys. J. Lett.753, L13, 2012) magnetoconvection simulation is used to generate synthetic SDO/HMI intensitygrams and reference flows to train DeepVel. Inferred velocity fields show that DeepVel performs best at subgranular and granular scales and is second only to FLCT at mesogranular and supergranular scales.  相似文献   
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Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO2 emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.  相似文献   
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Hydrogeology Journal - Thanks to recent technological advances, hydrogeologists now have access to large amounts of data acquired in real time. Processing these data using traditional modelling...  相似文献   
38.
Abstract

Trends in Canadian temperature and precipitation during the 20th century are analyzed using recently updated and adjusted station data. Six elements, maximum, minimum and mean temperatures along with diurnal temperature range (DTR), precipitation totals and ratio of snowfall to total precipitation are investigated. Anomalies from the 1961–1990 reference period were first obtained at individual stations, and were then used to generate gridded datasets for subsequent trend analyses. Trends were computed for 1900–1998 for southern Canada (south of 60°N), and separately for 1950–1998 for the entire country, due to insufficient data in the high arctic prior to the 1950s.

From 1900–1998, the annual mean temperature has increased between 0.5 and 1.5°C in the south. The warming is greater in minimum temperature than in maximum temperature in the first half of the century, resulting in a decrease of DTR. The greatest warming occurred in the west, with statistically significant increases mostly seen during spring and summer periods. Annual precipitation has also increased from 5% to 35% in southern Canada over the same period. In general, the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation has been increasing due mostly to the increase in winter precipitation which generally falls as snow and an increase of ratio in autumn. Negative trends were identified in some southern regions during spring. From 1950–1998, the pattern of temperature change is distinct: warming in the south and west and cooling in the northeast, with similar magnitudes in both maximum and minimum temperatures. This pattern is mostly evident in winter and spring. Across Canada, precipitation has increased by 5% to 35%, with significant negative trends found in southern regions during winter. Overall, the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation has increased, with significant negative trends occurring mostly in southern Canada during spring.

Indices of abnormal climate conditions are also examined. These indices were defined as areas of Canada for 1950–1998, or southern Canada for 1900–1998, with temperature or precipitation anomalies above the 66th or below the 34th percentiles in their relevant time series. These confirmed the above findings and showed that climate has been becoming gradually wetter and warmer in southern Canada throughout the entire century, and in all of Canada during the latter half of the century.  相似文献   
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40.
A study of inertial scale gravity wave motions in the region of the atmosphere between 30 and 60 km has been undertaken, using wind and temperature data derived from rocket-borne falling sphere density experiments performed over Woomera, Australia between 1962 nad 1976. The gross features of the wave field compare favorably with those found in similar northern hemispheric studies. Wave propagation is found to be both vertically and horizontally anisotropic. A rotary spectral analysis indicates predominately upgoing wave energy, suggesting that the majority of sources of these waves lie below 30 km. A detailed statistical investigation of the waves, made using the Stokes parameters technique, reveals that phase progression is also highly directional in the horizontal, with a significant zonal component in summer, but with a strong meridional component in winter. Propagation towards the southeast is inferred in summer, with the waves possibly emanating from tropospheric sources in equatorial regions to the north of Australia. The technique also shows that, on average, the waves appear to have mean ellipse eccentricities (=f/) around 0.4–0.45. Indirect estimates of a number of important wave parameters are made. In particular,v andw flux estimates are made over several height intervals. The vertical gradient of density weighted flux implies wave-induced mean flow accelerations of the order 0.1–1 ms–1day–1. This suggests that dissipating gravity waves are a significant source of the momentum residuals that are encountered in studies of satellite data from this region.  相似文献   
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