Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*     

Dryer  M.  Fry  C.D.  Sun  W.  Deehr  C.  Smith  Z.  Akasofu  S.-I.  Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867  相似文献   

A detailed abundance analysis of the hot post-AGB star ZNG-1 in M10     

C.J. Mooney  W.R.J. Rolleston  F.P. Keenan  P.L. Dufton  D.L. Pollacco  H.R. Magee 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,326(3):1101-1109

We present a model-atmosphere analysis for the bright ( V ∼13) star ZNG-1, in the globular cluster M10. From high-resolution ( R ∼40 000) optical spectra we confirm ZNG-1 to be a post-asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) star. The derived atmospheric parameters are T _eff=26 500±1000 K and log  g =3.6±0.2 dex . A differential abundance analysis reveals a chemical composition typical of hot post-AGB objects, with ZNG-1 being generally metal poor, although helium is approximately solar. The most interesting feature is the large carbon underabundance of more than 1.3 dex. This carbon deficiency, along with an observed nitrogen enhancement relative to other elements, may suggest that ZNG-1 evolved off the AGB before the third dredge-up occurred. Also, iron depletions observed in other similar stars suggest that gas–dust fractionation in the AGB progenitor could be responsible for the observed composition of these objects. However, we need not invoke either scenario since the chemical composition of ZNG-1 is in good agreement with abundances found for a Population II star of the same metallicity.  相似文献   

Cosmic‐ray exposure history of two Frontier Mountain H‐chondrite showers from spallation and neutron‐capture products     

K. C. WELTEN  K. NISHIIZUMI  J. MASARIK  M. W. CAFFEE  A. J. T. JULL  S. E. KLANDRUD  R. WIELER 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2001,36(2):301-317

Abstract— We measured the concentrations of ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, ³⁶Cl, ⁴¹Ca and ¹⁴C in the metal and/or stone fractions of 27 Antarctic chondrites from Frontier Mountain (FRO), including two large H‐chondrite showers. To estimate the pre‐atmospheric size of the two showers, we determined the contribution of neutron‐capture produced ³⁶Cl (half‐life = 3.01 times 10⁵ years) and ⁴¹Ca (1.04 times 10⁵ years) in the stone fraction. The measured activities of neutron‐capture ³⁶Cl and ⁴¹Ca, as well as spallation produced ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al, were compared with Monte Carlo‐based model calculations. The largest shower, FRO 90174, includes eight fragments with an average terrestrial age of (100 ± 30) × 10³ years; the neutron‐capture saturation activities extend to 27 dpm/kg stone for ³⁶Cl and 19 dpm/kg stone for ⁴¹Ca. The concentrations of spallation produced ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al and ³⁶Cl constrain the radius (R) to 80–100 cm, while the neutron‐capture ⁴¹Ca activities indicate that the samples originated from the outer 25 cm. With a pre‐atmospheric radius of 80–100 cm, FRO 90174 is among the largest of the Antarctic stony meteorites. The large pre‐atmospheric size supports our hypothesis that at least 50 of the ～150 classified H5/H6‐chondrites from the Frontier Mountain stranding area belong to this single fall; this hypothesis does not entirely account for the high H/L ratio at Frontier Mountain. The smaller shower, FRO 90001, includes four fragments with an average terrestrial age of (40 ± 10) × 10³ years; they contain small contributions of neutron‐capture ³⁶Cl, but no excess of ⁴¹Ca. FRO 90001 experienced a complex exposure history with high shielding conditions in the first stage (150 < R < 300 cm) and much lower shielding in the second stage (R < 30 cm), the latter starting ～1.0 million years (Ma) ago. Based on the measured ¹⁰Be/²¹Ne and ²⁶Al/²¹Ne ratios, the cosmic‐ray exposure ages of the two showers are 7.2 ± 0.5 Ma for FRO 90174 and 8 ± 1 Ma for FRO 90001. These ages coincide with the well‐established H‐chondrite peak and corroborate the observation that the exposure age distribution of FRO H‐chondrites is similar to that of non‐Antarctic falls. In addition, we found that corrections for neutron‐capture ³⁶Ar (from decay of ³⁶Cl) result in concordant ²¹Ne and ³⁸Ar exposure ages.  相似文献   

The EVN-MarkIV VLBI Data Processor     

R. T. Schilizzi  W. Aldrich  B. Anderson  A. Bos  R. M. Campbell  J. Canaris  R. Cappallo  J. L. Casse  A. Cattani  J. Goodman  H. J. van Langevelde  A. Maccafferri  R. Millenaar  R. G. Noble  F. Olnon  S. M. Parsley  C. Phillips  S. V. Pogrebenko  D. Smythe  A. Szomoru  H. Verkouter  A. R. Whitney 《Experimental Astronomy》2001,12(1):49-67

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On model predictions of the power spectral density of radial solar p modes     

W. J. Chaplin  G. Houdek  Y. Elsworth  D. O. Gough  G. R. Isaak  R. New 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,360(3):859-868

We investigate the frequency dependence of the power spectral density of low-degree solar p modes by comparing measurements with the results of a stochastic-excitation model. In the past it was common practice to use the total power in such investigations. Using the maximum of the power spectral density instead provides a direct comparison with the measured mode heights in the observed power spectrum. This method permits a more careful calibration of the adjustable parameters in the excitation model, a model which we present here, for the first time, in a format that precisely and unambiguously relates the amplitudes of the modes of oscillation to the Reynolds stress in the equilibrium model. We find that errors in the theory of the linear mode damping rates, particularly at low frequency, have a dramatic impact on the predictions of the mode heights in the spectral density, whereas parameter changes in the stochastic excitation model, within a plausible domain of parameter space, have a comparatively small effect.  相似文献   

A 2000-YEAR CONTEXT FOR MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE     

K.A. MAASCH  P.A. MAYEWSKI  E.J. ROHLING  J.C. STAGER  W. KARLEN  L.D. MEEKER  E.A. MEYERSON 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(1):7-15

ABSTRACT. Although considerable attention has been paid to the record of temperature change over the last few centuries, the range and rate of change of atmospheric circulation and hydrology remain elusive. Here, eight latitudinally well-distributed (pole-equator-pole), highly resolved (annual to decadal) climate proxy records are presented that demonstrate major changes in these variables over the last 2000 years. A comparison between atmospheric ¹⁴C and these changes in climate demonstrates a first-order relationship between a variable Sun and climate. The relationship is seen on a global scale.  相似文献   

A comparison of artificial solar granules with real solar granules     

H. Wöhl  Å. Nordlund 《Solar physics》1985,97(2):213-221

The lifetimes, characteristics of the shapes as well as lengths and perimeters of artificial solar granules (Nordlund, 1982, 1984a) are compared with data from the literature and parameters determined from two different sets of observed granules. No significant differences of the parameters for these sets of granules are detectable.Mitteilungen aus dem Kiepenheuer-Institut Nr. 251.  相似文献   

Arsenic incorporation in a salt marsh ecosystem     

James G. Sanders  Richard W. Osman 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,20(4):387-392

Replicate portions of a Delaware salt marsh were enclosed in cylindrical microcosms and exposed to elevated levels of inorganic arsenic (arsenate). All biotic and abiotic components in dosed cylinders rapidly incorporated arsenic. Spartina blades showed the greatest arsenic enrichment, with dosed plants incorporating arsenic concentrations an order of magnitude higher than controls. Spartina detritus and sediments also exhibited greatly elevated arsenic concentrations. Virtually all of the arsenic was incorporated into plant tissue or strongly sorbed to cell surfaces. Thus, elevated arsenic concentrations in estuarine waters will be reflected in living and non-living components of a salt marsh ecosystem, implying that increased arsenic will be available to organisms within the marsh ecosystem.  相似文献   

Book reviews     

I. W. Farmer 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1985,3(4):327-329

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The determination and analysis of the orbit of NIMBUS 1 ROCKET, 1964-52B: Part 2: Variations in orbital eccentricity     

W.J. Boulton 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(6):735-756

The influence of aerodynamic drag and the geopotential on the motion of the satellite 1964-52B is considered. A model of the atmosphere is adopted that allows for oblateness, and in which the density behaviour approximates to the observed diurnal variation. A differential equation governing the variation of the eccentricity, e, combining the effects of air drag with those of the Earth's gravitational field is given. This is solved numerically using as initial conditions 310 computed orbits of 1964-52B.The observed values of eccentricity are modified by the removal of perturbations due to luni-solar attraction, solid Earth and ocean tides, solar radiation pressure and low-order long-periodic tesseral harmonic perturbations. The method of removal of these effects is given in some detail. The behaviour of the orbital eccentricity predicted by the numerical solution is compared with the modified observed eccentricity to obtain values of atmospheric parameters at heights between 310 and 430 km. The daytime maximum of air density is found to be at 14.5 hours local time. Analysis of the eccentricity near 15th order resonance with the geopotential yielded values of four lumped geopotential harmonics of order 15, namely: $\text{10}{}^9\text{C}{}^{\mathrm{1,0}}{}_{15}\text{= ?78.8 ± 7.0}$, $\text{10}{}^9\text{S}{}^{\mathrm{1,0}}{}_{15}\text{= ?69.4 ± 5.3}$, $\text{10}{}^9\text{C}{}^{\mathrm{?1,2}}{}_{15}\text{= ?41.6 ± 3.5}$$\text{10}{}^9\text{S}{}^{\mathrm{?1,2}}{}_{15}\text{= ?26.1 ± 8.9}$, at inclination 98.68°.  相似文献