DO-Process Models for Shallow Systems. Part 1: Ponds and Lakes     

A. Gnauck  W. Winkler 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1983,11(1):109-124

Model statements are presented for describing the oxygen concentration in dependence on various system quantities and five different shallow water bodies. A nonlinear model in the form of a polynomial and with parameter estimation by means of recursive regression proves suitable. It is a blackbox model in which the water temperature, the biomass of phytoplankton and zooplankton and the solar irradiation are the most important input quantities. The model applications to the five water bodies reach measures of determinateness of 0.6 … 0.74 and mean square deviations between the measured and calculated oxygen concentrations of 3 … 4 mg/l O₂. Simulations of the model output by changed input data are discussed.  相似文献   

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions     

Elmar Kriegler  Jae Edmonds  Stéphane Hallegatte  Kristie L. Ebi  Tom Kram  Keywan Riahi  Harald Winkler  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):401-414

The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key policy attributes such as the goals, instruments and obstacles of mitigation and adaptation measures, and introduce an important additional dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. They can be used to improve the comparability of scenarios in the scenario matrix. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.  相似文献   

Unexpected records of ‘deep‐sea’ carnivorous sponges Asbestopluma hypogea in the shallow NE Atlantic shed light on new conservation issues          下载免费PDF全文

Pierre Chevaldonné  Thierry Pérez  Jean‐Michel Crouzet  Wilfried Bay‐Nouailhat  Anne Bay‐Nouailhat  Maïa Fourt  Bruno Almón  Jacinto Pérez  Ricardo Aguilar  Jean Vacelet 《Marine Ecology》2015,36(3):475-484

Marine cave communities have been a continued source of ecological surprises, among other things because of their close ecological and evolutionary ties with the deep sea. The discovery of cladorhizid sponges, the deepest occurring poriferan family, in shallow Mediterranean caves in the 1990s was one such surprise, leading to the generally accepted hypothesis that the whole family was carnivorous, an unprecedented feeding mode for sponges. The recent observation of the cave species Asbestopluma hypogea in the Mediterranean bathyal, confirmed the view that some shallow caves can occasionally shelter otherwise deep‐dwelling species. Here we present new distribution data of A. hypogea, from deep Mediterranean locations, and for the first time from Atlantic locations. Among the new Atlantic records, the most surprising ones are located in three different geographic areas (Ria de Arousa, Groix Island and Cherbourg) of the NW European coasts, from the Iberian Peninsula to the English Channel, where A. hypogea reaches SCUBA depths (5–50 m), while not sheltered in marine caves. The carnivorous sponge however reaches its shallowest occurrence (5 m), in a small cave at Groix Island. The ecological significance of these discoveries, particularly the very patchy distribution and peculiar dynamics, are noteworthy, and the shallow occurrence of A. hypogea, together with other deep‐water or uncommon species, constitute unique assemblages that must be considered in conservation plans.  相似文献   

Future mitigation commitments: differentiating among non-Annex I countries     

Harald Winkler  Bernd Brouns  Sivan Kartha 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):469-486

Abstract

In the long term, any definition of adequacy consistent with UNFCCC Article 2 will require increased mitigation efforts from almost all countries. Therefore, an expansion of emission limitation commitments will form a central element of any future architecture of the climate regime. This expansion has two elements: deepening of quantitative commitments for Annex B countries and the adoption of commitments for those countries outside of the current limitation regime. This article seeks to provide a more analytical basis for further differentiation among non-Annex I countries. To be both fair and reflective of national circumstances, it is based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate. Altogether, non-Annex I countries were differentiated in four groups, each including countries with similar national circumstances: newly industrialized countries (NICs), rapidly industrializing countries (RIDCs), ‘other developing countries’, and least developed countries (LDCs). Based on the same criteria that were used for differentiating among non-Annex I countries, a set of decision rules was developed to assign mitigation and financial transfer commitments to each group of countries (including Annex I countries). Applying these decision rules results in (strict) reduction commitments for Annex I countries, but also implies quantifiable mitigation obligations for NICs and RIDCs, assisted by financial transfers from the North. Other developing countries are obliged to take qualitative commitments, but quantifiable mitigation commitments for these countries and the LDC group would be not justifiable. As national circumstances in countries evolve over time, the composition of the groups will change according to agreed triggers.  相似文献   

Equitable access to sustainable development: operationalizing key criteria     

Harald Winkler  Thapelo Letete  Andrew Marquard 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):411-432

Equitable access to sustainable development (EASD) is crucial for the future of the climate regime as it applies to adaptation, mitigation, and the means of implementation. An approach to allocating effort and deriving carbon budgets is presented here based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) principles of responsibility, capability, and sustainable development. A transparent model to operationalize EASD is applied by applying quantitative proxies for these criteria, and results for selected countries and groups are presented. A robust result is that the mitigation burden calculated by the model is significantly greater for developed than developing countries. For individual countries the results vary depending on the parameters chosen. A middle value of the mitigation burden for South Africa of 15 GtCO₂e over the first half of the 21st century is reported, with the greatest effort required when a starting year of 1970 is chosen and historical land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions are excluded when accounting for responsibility. In a regime applicable to all, it is clear that although all countries must do more, some must do more than others.

Policy relevance

Equitable access to sustainable development is crucial to the climate negotiations. Quantified allocations are presented for South Africa and other countries, based on the UNFCCC principles of responsibility, capability, and sustainable development. It is shown that the mitigation burden given these principles must be significantly greater for developed than developing countries. The results are relevant to, inter alia, the upcoming 2013–2015 review and the negotiations under the Durban Platform.  相似文献