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141.
142.
高时空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以业务应用为目标,开展高时、空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究。运用北京快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统集成子系统(RMAPS-IN,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration),对雷达四维变分分析系统(VDRAS)30 min临近预报的高时、空分辨率三维风场作为数据源与自动气象站风场观测进行快速融合处理。结果表明,以VDRAS临近预报风场取代数值模式预报场作为融合初猜场后形成的分析结果对于风场有明显的改善:(1)长时间序列客观检验结果表明,地面10 m高风场U/V分量绝对误差分别为0.05和0.06 m/s。实时融合对未来预报的影响随着预报时效的延长,U/V分量的绝对误差不断增大。(2)对于11个强对流个例,地面10 m高风场风速均方根误差降低0.3 m/s,风向均方根误差降低13°;边界层三维风场,风速均方根误差降低0.8 m/s,风向均方根误差降低10°。平原站点融合以后风速、风向预报效果有较大改善,山区站点融合以后改善相对较小。(3)通过对2017年7月20日暴雨和7月7日雷暴大风个例的详细分析,发现融合基于雷达资料四维变分同化获得的高分辨率临近预报风场对各对流系统中的中尺度结构特征给出了更加细致准确的描述。 相似文献
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AbstractThe potential influence of a developing La Niña on Arctic sea-ice annual variability is investigated using both observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model. It is found that during the developing phase of an eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña event in June, July, and August (JJA) and September, October, and November (SON), the sea-ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents–Kara Seas declines more than 15%. The local atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the EP La Niña is characterized as a weak decrease in geopotential height over the Barents–Kara Seas, combined with an anticyclone in the North Atlantic. The corresponding southerly winds push warm waters northward into the key sea-ice reduction region and directly accelerate sea-ice melt. Meanwhile, the abundant moisture contained in the lower troposphere is transported into the Arctic region by winds resulting from the local barotropic structure. The humid atmosphere contributes to both net shortwave and longwave radiation and thus indirectly accelerates the decline in sea ice. Simulations by the European Centre Hamburg Model, version 5.4, are forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies associated with EP La Niña events. The results of the simulations capture the North Atlantic anticyclone and reproduce the moisture transport, which supports the premise that an EP La Niña plays a crucial role in sea-ice reduction over the Barents–Kara sector from the perspective of atmospheric circulation and net surface heat flux. 相似文献
145.
Lead isotopic ratios of bulk sulphides from eleven stratigraphically equivalent deposits from the Köli Nappe sequence in the Trondheim district, and eleven from the Köli sequence at Sulitjelma Norway, have been determined. When plotted on 207Pb/204Pb-206Pb/204Pb diagrams, the data define a linear trend extending from the mantle to the upper crustal model growth curves of Doe and Zartman (1979). Moreover, the data from both districts lie on the same trend. This isotopic trend is interpreted as resulting from the mixing of lead from a mantle source (probably the host basalts) with that of an upper-crustal end member (either sialic basement or the terrigenous sediments surrounding the host basalts). It is also concluded that the deposits in both camps formed more or less contemporaneously. The isotopic mixing line is comparable with that obtained from Besshi ore pyrites in Japan, for which an aulacogenic depositional environment, similar to that found today in the Gulf of California, has been proposed (Fox 1984). It is concluded that a similar depositional environment was responsible for the Trondheim and Sulitjelma ores, although an ensialic back-arc basin, or other possible environments, cannot be entirely ruled out. 相似文献
146.
本文详细介绍了笔者所建议的运用模糊图理论和方法进行城市输水管网的地震可靠性分析途径和计算程序。对于输水管网中每段管道的震害预测,建立了相应的专家系统。在此基础上,定义了管网系统的模糊可靠性,更好地反映了人们对于管道损坏状态估计的模糊性和对可靠性要求上的模糊性。以模糊矩阵来描述输水管网的状态是十分方便的。通过计算模糊矩阵的传递闭包,极易找出最短路、关键段等。由于地震作用和管道抗震能力都是随机的,因此整个管网系统的可靠性分析是藉助Monle Carlo法进行的。以Monle Carlo法对模糊图进行分析,从而得到管网的地震可靠性,这还是首次。用PASCAL和PROLOG编制了在微机上实用的计算机程序,特别是以智能语言PROLOG编制的程序,更有许多特色。由于采用了一些技巧,使在微机上可以分析相当大的系统,为城市抗震防灾工作提供了一个有力的工具。 相似文献
147.
Rui Feng Jun Wang Shuzhen Zheng Guifang Huang Huifen Yan Hainan Zhou Ruoshui Zhang 《地震学报(英文版)》1988,1(4):73-84
Following Airy and Pratt principles, five kinds of local-compensation models are analysed and a rapid 3-D gravity formula
is utilized to calculate isostatic anomalies for 66 models with different parameters. It is noted that isostatic gravity maps
appear nearly identical in their main patterns and features. The optimum compensation model in North China is one of modified
Airy models in which the different density distribution in the surface, upper crust and lower crust is taken into account
and the standard crustal thickness is about 50km. The position of the complete compensation interface is located in the upper
mantle. The North China platform as a whole is under sub-isostatic equilibrium status with an isostatic anomaly of about 18·10−5 m/s2 on an average. The distribution of isostatic gravity anomaly shows an obvious blockwise pattern. Most positive anomaly areas
occur over the eastern part, the Jiao-Liao Block, Mt. Yan block and northern margin of the Hebei-Shandong block, whereas a
negative area occurs in the Shanxi graben. The comparison of models indicates that the Moho discontinuity is not suitable
to be taken as a compensation interface, and the compensation effects in Airy model are better than that in Pratt model, which
is consistent with the feature of dominant layered structure and less lateral inhomogeneity in crust. Some results about composite
compensation, the basic characteristics of isostatic anomaly and deep stucture will be published later in the second part
of this paper.
Wang Bowen took part in some work in this paper. 相似文献
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149.
The Rapid Inversion of 3-D Potential Field and Program Design 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The application of three-dimensional inversion of gravity and magnetic fields is very important not only in geophysical researches, but also in the study of geological structures. A formula of potential field in frequency-domain, developed by Parker in 1973, can be used as a rapid and effective algorithm in gravity and magnetic inversion. The technique has been improved then by Oldenburg, Sprenke, Feng and others.In addition to a brief introduction of Parker's algorithm and its applications, this paper includes the following five parts: basic computational techniques, inversion of single layer, convergence and constraints, simultaneous inversion for density and topography as well as inversion of multilayers. The authors present relevant practical iterative formulas and its varieties when density distribution varies with depth in linear or exponential relation. In order to maintain computation stability and speed up iteration convergence, some approaches are taken in the program design, for instance shifting lower interface of the studied layer, inverting corrections of topography, reducing grid boundary effects and utilizing low-pass filter. With the consideration of the nonuniqueness of the inversion, a method of using seismic data to constrain the range ofpossible models is discussed. It is pointed out that the density variation generates less effects than those of topography on the spectrum of gravity anomaly in second order. Therefore density contrast and topography can be inverted simultaneously by an alternative weighting iteration. By analogy, the inversion of multilayer model can be done in the above procedure. An approach of model decomposition is useful in the computation of multilayer model. The techniques discussed in the present paper for gravitational field are also valid for magnetic field. 相似文献
150.
本文分析了威海市杨家滩不源地第四系冲洪积-海相沉积物分规律和水文地质特征;在此基础上,应用有限单元方法进行了地下水量评价和预测水源地地下水位的变化趋势;提出了最优开采方案。 相似文献