A numerical study of the wintertime double-warm-tongue structure in the Huanghai(Yellow) Sea   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

SHAN Feng  QIAO Fangli  L&#; Xingang  XIA Changshui 《海洋学报(英文版)》2009,28(4):8-15

Satellite remote sensing observations show that during winter, sea surface temperature (SST) presents the structure of double warm tongues in the Huanghai Sea trough:the western and the eastern warm tongues. Numerical experiments based on POM are carried out to study the forming mechanism of this thermal structure and its relation to the Huanghai Sea Warm Current (HSWC). The control experiment reproduces this phenomenon quite well, and comparing experiments investigate the effect of wind and tide. It is found that the western warm tongue is mainly caused by the HSWC, which can be strengthened by wintertime southward wind. The eastern warm tongue develops under the influence of an anti-clockwise circulation which is induced by the temperature front of the Huanghai Sea Cold Water Mass (HSCWM) in summer and autumn. In the eastern portion of this circulation, the northward current carries warm water to the north, forming the eastern warm tongue, which remains till winter.  相似文献   

CMIP5模式降水订正法及未来30年中国降水预估     

杨阳  戴新刚  唐恒伟  张蓓 《气候与环境研究》2019,24(6):769-784

借助英国气候研究所（Climate Research Unit, CRU）全球陆地格点分析数据集（CRU TS v4.0）月降水资料和24个国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5）模式历史气候模拟及RCP4.5情景下的降水预估数据,设计了多种回归方案并对模式降水预估偏差进行订正。这些方案包括一元回归、一元对数回归、一元差分回归、一元对数差分回归、多元回归、多元对数回归、多元差分回归、多元对数差分回归和简单移除气候漂移等。2006～2015年中国大陆模式降水预估的订正结果表明,一元回归订正法普遍优于多元回归订正和扣除气候漂移订正法,其中一元对数回归法的效果最好,其降水距平同号率（Anomaly Rate, AR）和降水距平百分率相关系数（Anomaly Percentage Correlation Coefficient, APCC）最高,分别达到69%和0.5;而降水距平相关系数（Anomaly Correlation Coefficient, ACC）最高的是一元对数差分回归法。不同回归订正法所得预估结果的距平同号格点分布显示,一元对数回归法在北方优于南方,而一元差分（年际增量）或对数差分回归法在南方优于北方。这直接导致在中国南方区域（95°E以东,35°N以南）一元对数回归或多元对数回归订正结果的AR、ACC和APCC均低于对应的差分/对数差分回归法,在北方和西部地区则与此相反。因此,模式降水的回归订正方案具有区域性,这可能源于不同区域降水序列统计性质的差异。用区域组合回归订正法,即在南方用一元差分回归订正,其余地区用一元对数回归订正,其降水预估场的AR提高到72%,但ACC和APCC均略有下降,原因是差分回归订正增加了预估降水场的方差。对RCP4.5情景下2016～2045年24个模式集合平均降水预估的组合回归订正结果显示,相对于1976～2005年平均,未来30年降水异常大致呈南北少,中间多的格局,其中长江中下游、江南中西部、西南东北部、华南沿海和海南省等地降水偏少10%～20%,淮河流域、三江源区和台湾省降水偏多10%～40%,西北东部、华北和东北大部降水正常或略偏少。从降水百分率方差看,模式群的离散度（不确定度）呈现东部小,西部大的分布特征,说明模式预估的西北中部和青藏高原西部等降水偏少区的不确定性较大;而河套北部、华北南部和江南东部等地对应于2006～2015年检验期的“盲区”（模式与观测降水距平反号）,其降水预估参考价值可能不大,需要引入他法加以改进。  相似文献   

怀山药生育期气象条件与气象灾害分析     

张新刚  刘佳  卢学峰  黄克磊  杜子璇  冯晓科 《气象与环境科学》2012,35(Z1)

怀山药主产于河南焦作的温县、沁阳、武陟等县市.整个生育期内,气候条件复杂多变,冷热无常,旱涝极难掌握,干旱、晚霜冻、低温等气象灾害严重影响怀山药的生长发育.本文在研究怀山药生产现状和生态适宜性的基础上,密切结合怀山药生产地的光、温、水等农业气候资源,筛选出怀山药各生育期气象指标及常见的气象灾害,并据此提出防御措施和建议,为大力发展怀山药产业提供参考.  相似文献   

从激光点云中提取古建筑线性和圆形特征的比较   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

詹庆明  周新刚  肖映辉  喻亮 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2011,(6):674-677,682

对古建筑激光扫描点云进行分割、识别,并利用Hough变换和最小二乘法从点云中提取直线和圆,取得了较满意的结果。对两种算法的提取效果进行了比较。  相似文献   

对流温度的数值计算及热力对流云预报应用     

吕新刚  高超  鲁才学  王健  肖涛 《气象》2022,48(1):14-27

对流温度(Tc)可用于估计局地热对流发展的可能性,但在实际业务中囿于有限的探空时次和诸多前提假设,其实用性受到限制.针对此问题,首先给出Tc的一种数值计算方案,进而提出基于模式探空制作热力对流云预报的思路,即:利用数值预报输出的2 m露点温度、地表气压和等压面温度计算各预报时刻的Tc,结合2 m高度气温(T2 m),构...  相似文献   

Endogenous viral elements in algal genomes   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

WANG Liang  WU Shuangxiu  LIU Tao  SUN Jing  CHI Shan  LIU Cui  LI Xingang  YIN Jinlong  WANG Xumin  YU Jun 《海洋学报(英文版)》2014,33(2):102-107

Endogenous viral elements （EVEs） are host-genomic fragments originated from viral genomes. They have been found universally in animal and plant genomes. Here we carried out a systematic screening and analy-sis of EVEs in algal genomes and found that EVEs commonly exist in algal genomes. We classified the EVE fragments into three categories according to the length of EVE fragments. Due to the probability of sequence similarity by chance, we ignored the potential function of medium-length EVE fragments. However, long-length EVE fragments probably had capability to encode protein domains or even entire proteins, and some short-length EVE fragments had high similarity with host＇s siRNA sequences and possibly served functions of small RNAs. Therefore, short and long EVE fragments might provide regulomic and proteomic novelty to the host＇s metabolism and adaptation. We also found several EVE fragments shared by more than 3 algal genomes. By phylogenetic analysis of the shared EVEs and their corresponding species, we found that the integration of viral fragments into host genomes was an ancient event, possibly before the divergence of Chlorophytes and Ochrophytes. Our findings show that there is a frequent genetic flow from viruses to algal genomes. Moreover, study on algal EVEs shed light on the virus-host interaction in large timescale and could also help us understand the balance of marine ecosystems.  相似文献   

近50年新疆温度降水配置演变及其尺度特征   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

戴新刚  任宜勇  陈洪武 《气象学报》2007,65(6):1003-1010

用小波多分辨分析方法研究近20年新疆出现的高温多雨型气候的时间尺度特征及其演变趋势。新疆近55年温度和降水的小波功率谱分析显示,二者在年际尺度上都有2—4和6—8 a的显著周期分量,在年代际尺度上有准16 a周期;但它们的时间演变和时间平均谱都存在差异,导致温度和降水配置演变比较复杂,呈现非平稳性。正交小波分解证实,温度和降水年际变化的高频部分具有显著的负相关,除个别几年外几乎都是高温少雨或低温多雨配置;在年际变化的低频部分,即6—8 a尺度部分,高温少雨/低温多雨及高温多雨/低温少雨配置交替出现,55a平均而言二者相关性不显著。在年代际以上尺度,二者的能量主要集中在约50 a以上尺度部分,16—32 a尺度部分方差贡献很小。在降水和温度时间序列中去除趋势后发现,50 a以上尺度部分具有稳定的高温多雨/低温少雨配置。因此,近20年新疆高温多雨型气候的出现主要是二者50—60 a尺度成分的正位相和线性增加趋势部分叠加形成的,其中降水主要是年代际尺度成分的贡献,温度主要是线性增暖趋势即全球变暖的影响结果。  相似文献   

天文古气候理论及其进展—从米兰柯维奇到贝尔杰   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

戴新刚  尚可政 《地球科学进展》1997,12(5):488-491

扼要介绍了天文古气候学的创立和发展简史。太阳是地球大气运动的第一驱动力，地球气候的长期演变在很大程度上受到入射太阳辐射变化的影响。入射太阳辐的变化主要和三个地球轨道参数有关，即地球绕太阳运行的椭圆轨道偏心率，地球自转轴倾角及岁差。太阳辐射的长期振荡主要集中在与这三个参数有关的频率上，这些频率通常被称为米兰柯维奇频率，数值模拟和地学记录都证实地质时间尺度的古气候的演化大多位于米兰柯维奇频率带上。  相似文献   

区域生态服务价值约束的可持续经济规模量化方法构建     

樊新刚  Yelao Yiachong  马振宁  杨美玲  米文宝 《地理科学》2021,41(12):2186-2195

The article conducts a research through theoretical carding, framework construction, and calculation path selection, and concludes that the contribution of ecosystems to human activities mainly comes from the ecological service function. Therefore, based on the relationship between the natural capital stock and flow, ecological services value (ESV for short) or eco-exergy services value (EEV) reflects the output capacity of ecological services. Regional ecological services value is connected to GDP through property ownership and main pressure sources. GDP or the ecological services value reflects the pressure of man-made capital on natural capital. The article attempts to use the ecological services value, eco-exergy services value, and GDP to construct the ecological service output capacity index (R) and pressure index (U), and by introducing the decoupling theory, it proposes a method to “return” the re-coupling GDP to a decoupling state and calculate the sustainable economic scale. It takes Ningdong Energy-Chemical Industry Base in Ningxia as the subject, and has three findings. Firstly, from 2007 to 2017, the economic development and ecological services were in a re-coupling state and the sustainable economic scale was 2.33×10⁹ to 64.3×10⁹ yuan, which was significantly lower than the total industrial output value in the corresponding year. Although the base deploys protection during construction, the R index began to decline after 2015, and there exists a risk of degradation. Secondly, the method uses the “declining turning point” of the R index to mark the bottom line, and attempts to put forward a quantitative method of regional sustainable economic scale from the perspective of the internal generation principle of the ecological contribution of capital value, which is helpful to the analysis method of reasonable population size, green GDP and ecological compensation. Thirdly, combined with the decoupling theory, the method can analyze the boundary of economic scale under regional ecological constraints, which has certain application value to enrich evaluations methods on sustainability.  相似文献   

中国降水回归模型设计策略与回报检验          下载免费PDF全文

张凯静  汪萍  戴新刚  程智 《山东气象》2017,37(3):27-35

利用中国160站降水记录及欧洲中心ERA-Interim再分析数据等构建了16种线性回归降水预测模型,包括“站点”降水直接/间接预测模型（间接模型是指先预测东亚季风指数,再以此估计站点降水）, 以及“区域-站点”降水直接/间接预测模型,即先预测一个区域的降水再分配到站点。此外,还构建了所有模型集合的降水预测模型。预报因子包括两种ENSO指数、北大西洋涛动（NAO）指数和青藏高原积雪深度等4个因子。模型亦分为3因子和4因子（包括积雪因子）组及对降水取/不取对数组等前处理。2005—2016年的回报试验表明,“站点”模型优于“区域-站点”模型,对降水取对数模型优于不取对数模型。另外,“站点”模型组中的间接降水预测模型优于直接模型,但“区域-站点”组却相反。ERA-Interim积雪深度资料不确定性带来的偏差超过该因子对降水预测的贡献。平均PS评分最高的是3因子的直接站点降水取对数模型（MDS-3Ln）,平均达到71分,高于集合模型（MEM）得分。这些结果表明,线性回归降水模型的设计理念与实际预测效果可能并不一致,其原因是因子的选取或数学处理过程会引入新的不确定性或偏差,必须综合评估各种设计方案的“成本-效益”关系。  相似文献