Consequences of implementing a reservoir operation algorithm in a global hydrological model under multiple meteorological forcing     

Yoshimitsu Masaki  Naota Hanasaki  Kiyoshi Takahashi  Yasuaki Hijioka 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(7):1047-1061

We investigated dam behaviours during high-flow events and their robustness against perturbations in meteorological conditions using the H08 global hydrological model. Differences in these behaviours were examined by comparing simulation runs, with and without dams and using multiple meteorological datasets, at a case-study site, Fort Peck Dam on the Missouri River, USA. The results demonstrated that dam-regulated river flow reduced temporal variability over large time periods and also dampened inter-forcing discrepancies in river discharge (smoothing effects). However, during wet years, differences in peak flow were accentuated downstream of the dam, resulting in divergence in simulated peak flow across the meteorological forcing (pulsing effect). The pulsing effect was detected at other major dams in global simulations. Depending upon the meteorological forcing, the dams act as a selective filter against high-flow events. Synergy between a generic dam scheme and differences in meteorological forcing data might introduce additional uncertainties in global hydrological simulations.  相似文献   

Quasiperiodic small meanders of the Kuroshio off Cape Ashizuri and their inter-annual modulation caused by quasiperiodic arrivals of mesoscale eddies     

Motohiko Kashima  Shin-Ichi Ito  Kaoru Ichikawa  Shiro Imawaki  Shin-Ichiro Umatani  Hiroshi Uchida  Takashi Setou 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(1):73-80

A quasiperiodic variation of 100–110 days in the Kuroshio path off Cape Ashizuri, resulting from the passage of small meanders, was detected by observation with moored current meters during 1993–1995. TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data covering 9 years showed that the quasiperiodic variation period was not persistent and modulated twice, with a ∼110-day period from mid-1993 to late 1996, a ∼150-day period from late 1996 to mid-1999, and a ∼110-day period from mid-1999 to late 2001. The quasiperiodic variations of the Kuroshio path migration were contemporaneous with the quasiperiodic arrivals of mesoscale eddies from the east along 27–32°N over the same ∼110- and ∼150-day period quasiperiodic variations. The periodic arrivals of the eddies configure the periodic variations of the Kuroshio path and its inter-annual modulation.  相似文献   

Effects of dust abundance on the far-infrared colours of blue compact dwarf galaxies     

Hiroyuki Hirashita  Tomohiro T. Ichikawa 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(1):500-510

We investigate the far-infrared (FIR) properties of a sample of blue compact dwarf galaxies (BCDs) observed by AKARI . By utilizing the data at wavelengths of  λ= 65  , 90 and 140 μm, we find that the FIR colours of the BCDs are located at the natural high-temperature extension of those of the Milky Way and the Magellanic Clouds. This implies that the optical properties of dust in BCDs are similar to those in the Milky Way. Indeed, we explain the FIR colours by assuming the same grain optical properties, which may be appropriate for amorphous dust grains, and the same size distribution as those adopted for the Milky Way dust. Since both interstellar radiation field and dust optical depth affect the dust temperature, it is difficult to distinguish which of these two physical properties is responsible for the change of FIR colours. Then, in order to examine if the dust optical depth plays an important role in determining the dust temperature, we investigate the correlation between FIR colour (dust temperature) and dust-to-gas ratio. We find that the dust temperature tends to be high as the dust-to-gas ratio decreases but that this trend cannot be explained by the effect of dust optical depth. Rather, it indicates a correlation between dust-to-gas ratio and interstellar radiation field. Although the metallicity may also play a role in this correlation, we suggest that the dust optical depth could regulate the star formation activities, which govern the interstellar radiation field. We also mention the importance of submillimetre data in tracing the emission from highly shielded low-temperature dust.  相似文献   

Emission scenario dependencies in climate change assessments of the hydrological cycle   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Hideo Shiogama  Naota Hanasaki  Yuji Masutomi  Tatsuya Nagashima  Tomoo Ogura  Kiyoshi Takahashi  Yasuaki Hijioka  Toshihiko Takemura  Toru Nozawa  Seita Emori 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):321-329

Anthropogenic global warming will lead to changes in the global hydrological cycle. The uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming across coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) has been actively examined. On the other hand, the uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity in different emission scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols has received little attention. Here we show a robust emission-scenario dependency (ESD); smaller global precipitation sensitivities occur in higher GHG and aerosol emission scenarios. Although previous studies have applied this ESD to the multi-AOGCM mean, our surprising finding is that current AOGCMs all have the common ESD in the same direction. Different aerosol emissions lead to this ESD. The implications of the ESD of precipitation sensitivity extend far beyond climate analyses. As we show, the ESD potentially propagates into considerable biases in impact assessments of the hydrological cycle via a widely used technique, so-called pattern scaling. Since pattern scaling is essential to conducting parallel analyses across climate, impact, adaptation and mitigation scenarios in the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, more attention should be paid to the ESD of precipitation sensitivity.  相似文献   

An attenuating structure beneath the Aso Caldera determined from the propagation of seismic waves     

Yasuaki Sudo 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1991,53(2):99-111

The attenuation of amplitude is seen in seismic waves which pass through the central region of the Aso caldera, in Kyushu, Japan. It is also recognized from spectral analysis of seismic waves that the higher frequencies of the P-wave are reduced in the waves which pass through the central region of the caldera. It is shown that the relative attenuation increases remarkably for the frequency range of 5 to 10 Hz. The specific attenuation factor Q of the P-wave train is about 100. From the surface projection of the ray paths with low Q values through the Aso caldera to each station, the attenuating region is located beneath the center of the caldera, extending to the north of the central cones. In conjunction with the low Q value of the P-wave and the decreases of S-wave amplitudes, the relative P-wave residual times have comparatively large values for seismic waves passing through the central region beneath the caldera. In order to attempt to provide additional information on the depth configuration of the attenuating material, the ray paths of P-wave's first arrivals are located in three-dimensional space. It indicates that the low-velocity material is located beneath the center of the caldera at depths of about 6 to 9 km. However, lowvelocity anomalies above the depth of 6 km and below the depth of 15 km were not able to be detected, because most of the available seismic ray paths had crossed the caldera at depths of about 6 to 15 km. Furthermore, the relative residual times have numerous errors resulting from incorrect hypocenter locations, origin times, inhomogeneities in the structure and uncertainty of the velocity structure. At shallow depths in the Aso caldera, refraction or reflection studies are required for an accurate estimate of the structure and more detailed properties of the attenuating material.  相似文献   

Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation     

Qian Zhou  Naota Hanasaki  Shinichiro Fujimori  Yoshimitsu Masaki  Yasuaki Hijioka 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):77-90

Hydropower generation plays a key role in mitigating GHG emissions from the overall power supply. Although the maximum achievable hydropower generation (MAHG) will be affected by climate change, it is seldom incorporated in integrated assessment models. In this study, we first used the H08 global hydrological model to project MAHG under two physical climate change scenarios. Then, we used the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium integrated assessment model to quantify the economic consequences of the presence or absence of mitigation policy on hydropower generation. This approach enabled us to quantify the physical impacts of climate change and the effect of mitigation policy—together and in isolation—on hydropower generation and the economy, both globally and regionally. Although there was little overall global change, we observed substantial differences among regions in the MAHG average change (from ??71% in Middle East to 14% in Former Soviet Union in RCP8.5). We found that the magnitude of changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) was small negative (positive) in Brazil (Canada) by 2100, for the no mitigation policy scenario. These consequences were intensified with the implementation of mitigation policies that enhanced the price competitiveness of hydropower against fossil fuel-powered technologies. Overall, our results suggested that there would be no notable globally aggregated impacts on GDP by 2100 because the positive effects in some regions were canceled out by negative effects in other regions.  相似文献   

Effects of the copepod community structure on fecal pellet flux in Kagoshima bay,a deep,semi-enclosed embayment     

Toru Kobari  Hiroyasu Akamatsu  Masato Minowa  Toshihiro Ichikawa  Kazuo Iseki  Ryuji Fukuda  Masataka Higashi 《Journal of Oceanography》2010,66(5):673-684

Seasonal changes in the shape and size composition of fecal pellets were investigated with sediment trap samples from 50 and 150 m in Kagoshima Bay to evaluate how the mesozooplankton community affects fecal pellet flux. Deep vertical mixing was evident in March, and thermal stratification was developed above 50 m in June, August and November. Chlorophyll a, suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) and copepod abundance were uniform throughout the water column during the seasonal mixing and concentrated above 50 m in the stratified seasons. Calanoids were the most predominant copepods in March and poecilostomatoids composed more than 45% of the copepod community in June, August and November. Fecal pellet fluxes at 50 and 150 m were the highest in March, nearly half of POC flux. The relative contribution declined considerably in the other months, especially for less than 4% of POC flux in August. The decline was corresponded to the predominance of cyclopoids and poecilostomatoids. Cylindrical pellets dominated the fecal matters at both depths throughout the study period, while larger cylindrical pellets nearly disappeared at 150 m in June, August and November. Copepod incubation revealed that cylindrical and oval pellets were egested by calanoids and the other copepods, respectively. We suggest that cylindrical fecal pellets produced by calanoid copepods contribute to feces flux but the predominance of poecilostomatoids and/or cyclopoids decreases feces flux via the increase of oval pellets and fragmentation of larger cylindrical pellets.  相似文献   

High‐resolution national land use scenarios under a shrinking population in Japan     

Haruka Ohashi  Keita Fukasawa  Toshinori Ariga  Tetsuya Matsui  Yasuaki Hijioka 《Transactions in GIS》2019,23(4):786-804

In sharp contrast with the global trend in population growth, certain developed countries are expected to experience rapid national population declines. Considering future land use scenarios that include depopulation is necessary to evaluate changes in ecosystem services that affect human well‐being and to facilitate comprehensive strategies for balancing rural and urban development. In this study, we applied a population‐projection‐assimilated predictive land use modeling (PPAP‐LM) approach, in which a spatially explicit population projection was incorporated as a predictor in a land use model. To analyze the effects of future population distributions on land use, we developed models for five land use types and generated projections for two scenarios (centralization and decentralization) under a shrinking population in Japan during 2015–2050. Our results suggested that population centralization promotes the compaction of built‐up areas and the expansion of forest and wastelands, while population decentralization contributes to the maintenance of a mixture of forest and cultivated land.  相似文献   

琵琶湖中浊度的季节变化     

远藤修一  Kunihiko SAGI  Naonori FUKUYAMA  Munetsugu KAWASHIMA  奥村康召 《湖泊科学》1998,10(S1):267-273

Seasonal variation of the turbidity (suspended substance) has been investigated in Lake Biwa. During the last five years, vertical and horizontal distributions of water temperature, turbidity, electric conductivity and chlorophyll-a have been obtained both in the south basin and the southern part of the north basin of Lake Biwa. The benthic nepheloid layer (BNL) developed in the seasons of thermal stratification, and is not detectable in the non-stratification period (winter). The BNL is mainly maintained by the organic matter such as phytoplankton under decomposition. However, the turbidity in the nepheloid layer was much affected by the turbid water from rivers after heavy rainfall. In this case, the major component of the suspended substance (SS) in the nepheloid layer was inorganic soil. The particulate P concentration, which is originated from phytoplankton, also increased after a rain fall. This suggests that phytoplankton in the surface layer sinks with clay and silt coming through rivers. From summer to the end of the stratification period, another kind of turbidity appeared in the bottom layer. This is caused by the chemical reaction of manganese under the anoxic condition. The resuspension of bottom sediment by strong currents also occurred, but it is not a major process for maintaining the BNL.  相似文献   

Direct measurements of mid-depth circulation in the Shikoku basin by tracking SOFAR floats   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Keisuke Taira  Shoji Kitagawa  Katsuto Uehara  Hiroshi Ichikawa  Hiroyuki Hachiya  Toshihiko Teramoto 《Journal of Oceanography》1990,46(6):296-306

Mid-depth circulation of the Shikoku Basin was measured by tracking four SOFAR floats drifting at the 1,500 m layer. Two floats were released on 17 April 1988 at 30°N, 135°59E and tracked for 433 days. Another two were released on 3 November 1988 at 29°52N and 133°25E, and tracked for 234 days. Two floats flowed clockwise around the Shikoku Warm Water Mass with a diameter of 400 km centered at 31°N and 136°E and a mean drift speed of 4.5 cm sec^–1. One of the floats showed about ten counterclockwise rotations with a period of about 8 days and a maximum speed of 80 cm sec^–1 in the sea area west to the Izu Ridge. In the east to Kyushu, a southward flow was observed under the northward flowing Kuroshio. The southward flow of 4 cm sec^–1 drift speed was considered to be a part of the counterclockwise circulation at deep layers along the perimeter of the Shikoku Basin. One float remained for 234 days in a limited area of 100 km by 150 km in the western part of the basin.  相似文献