A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Serkan Öztürk  Yusuf Bayrak  Hakan Çınar  George Ch. Koravos  Theodoros M. Tsapanos 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):471-495

Useful information concerning the earthquake hazard parameters distributed in Turkey and the adjacent areas are estimated in the present work. Based on Gumbel’s I distribution parameters we are able to estimate the hazard values of the investigated area which are the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence of magnitude ≥M during a time span of t-years. Figures concerning the spatial distribution of probabilities and the return periods are plotted and we considered them of particular interest for mapping the earthquake hazard in Turkey and the surrounding areas. These figures effectively produce a brief earthquake hazard atlas. The quantitative appraisal of the hazard parameters is useful for engineers, planners, etc., because it provides a tool for earthquake resistant design.  相似文献   

An Evaluation of Earthquake Hazard Potential for Different Regions in Western Anatolia Using the Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Data     

Yusuf Bayrak  Erdem Bayrak 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(10):1859-1873

We applied the maximum likelihood method produced by Kijko and Sellevoll (Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654, 1989; Bull Seismol Soc Am 82:120–134, 1992) to study the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for the different regions in western Anatolia (WA). Since the historical earthquake data are very important for examining regional earthquake hazard parameters, a procedure that allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two has been applied in this study. By using this method, we estimated the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude $ \hat{M}_{\max } , $ the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known $ \hat{b} $ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The whole examined area is divided into 15 different seismic regions based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The probabilities, return periods of earthquakes with a magnitude M?≥?m and the relative earthquake hazard level (defined as the index K) are also evaluated for each seismic region. Each of the computed earthquake hazard parameters is mapped on the different seismic regions to represent regional variation of these parameters. Furthermore, the investigated regions are classified into different seismic hazard level groups considering the K index. According to these maps and the classification of seismic hazard, the most seismically active regions in WA are 1, 8, 10 and 12 related to the Alia?a Fault and the Büyük Menderes Graben, Aegean Arc and Aegean Islands.  相似文献   

A Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard Parameters in NW Himalaya and the Adjoining Regions     

R. B. S. Yadav  Yusuf Bayrak  J. N. Tripathi  S. Chopra  A. P. Singh  Erdem Bayrak 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(9):1619-1639

The maximum likelihood estimation method is applied to study the geographical distribution of earthquake hazard parameters and seismicity in 28 seismogenic source zones of NW Himalaya and the adjoining regions. For this purpose, we have prepared a reliable, homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1500–2010. The technique used here allows the data to contain either historical or instrumental era or even a combination of the both. In this study, the earthquake hazard parameters, which include maximum regional magnitude (M _max), mean seismic activity rate (λ), the parameter b (or β?=?b/log e) of Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) frequency-magnitude relationship, the return periods of earthquakes with a certain threshold magnitude along with their probabilities of occurrences have been calculated using only instrumental earthquake data during the period 1900–2010. The uncertainties in magnitude have been also taken into consideration during the calculation of hazard parameters. The earthquake hazard in the whole NW Himalaya region has been calculated in 28 seismogenic source zones delineated on the basis of seismicity level, tectonics and focal mechanism. The annual probability of exceedance of earthquake (activity rate) of certain magnitude is also calculated for all seismogenic source zones. The obtained earthquake hazard parameters were geographically distributed in all 28 seismogenic source zones to analyze the spatial variation of localized seismicity parameters. It is observed that seismic hazard level is high in Quetta-Kirthar-Sulaiman region in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya region and Uttarkashi-Chamoli region in Himalayan Frontal Thrust belt. The source zones that are expected to have maximum regional magnitude (M _max) of more than 8.0 are Quetta, southern Pamir, Caucasus and Kashmir-Himanchal Pradesh which have experienced such magnitude of earthquakes in the past. It is observed that seismic hazard level varies spatially from one zone to another which suggests that the examined regions have high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonic complexity.  相似文献   

The great Sumatra–Andaman earthquakes — Imaging the boundary between the ruptures of the great 2004 and 2005 earthquakes     

Dieter Franke  Michael Schnabel  Stefan Ladage  David R. Tappin  S  nke Neben  Yusuf S. Djajadihardja  Christian Mü  ller  Heidrun Kopp  Christoph Gaedicke 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,269(1-2):118-130

Segmentation along convergent margins controls earthquake magnitude and location, but the physical causes of segment boundaries, and their impact on earthquake rupture dynamics, are still poorly understood. One aspect of the 2004 and 2005 great Sumatra–Andaman earthquakes is their abrupt termination along a common boundary. This has led to speculation on the nature of the boundary, its origin and why it was not breached.

For the first time the boundary has been imaged and, with newly acquired marine geophysical data, we demonstrate that a ridge on the subducting Indo-Australian oceanic crust may exert a control on margin segmentation. This suggests a lower plate influence on margin structure, particularly its segmentation. The ridge is masked by the sedimentary cover in the trench. Its most likely trend is NNE–SSW. It is interpreted as a fracture zone on the subducting oceanic plate. A ramp or tear along the eastern flank of the subducting fracture zone beneath Simeulue Island may be considered as an intensification factor in terms of rupture propagation barrier.  相似文献   

Anisotropic thermo-convective effects on the stability of the thermo-diffusive equilibrium through a porous medium     

Mohammad Yusuf  A. K. Singh 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1991,175(1):125-134

An analytical study is performed to examine the mass-transfer characteristics on the free-convection flow of an incompressible viscous fluid past an exponentially accelerated infinite vertical plate under the action of constant heat flux. The effects of various parameters occurring into the problem, is extensively discussed.  相似文献   

Relationships Between Fundamental Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Different Source Regions in Turkey     

Yusuf?BayrakEmail author  Ahmet?Yilmaztürk  Serkan??ztürk 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(3):445-462

Turkey has been divided into eight different seismic regions taking into consideration the tectonic environments and epicenters of the earthquakes to examine relationships of the modal values (a/b), the expected maximum magnitudes (M_max) and the maximum intensities (I_max). For this purpose, the earthquakes for the time period 1900–1992 from the Global Hypocenter Data Base CD-ROM prepared by USGS, and for the time period 1993–2001 from the PDE data and IRIS data are used. Concerning the relationships developed between different magnitude scales and between surface wave magnitudes (M_S) and intensity for different source regions in Turkey, we have constructed a uniform catalog of M_S. We have estimated the values of M_max and I_max using the Gumbel III asymptotic distribution. Highest a-values are observed in the Aegean region and the lowest b-values are estimated for the North Anatolian Fault. Maximum values of a/b, M_max and I_max are related to the eastern and western part of the North Anatolian Fault and the Aegean Arc. The lowest values of all parameters are observed near the Mid Anatolian Fault system. Linear relationships have been calculated between a/b, M_max and I_max using orthogonal regression. If one of the three parameters is computed, two other parameters can be calculated empirically using these linear relationships. Hazard maps of M_max and I_max values are produced using these relationships for a grid of equally spaced points at 1°. It is observed that the maps produced empirically may be used as a measure of seismic hazard in Turkey.  相似文献   

A continuum damage concrete model for earthquake analysis of concrete gravity dam–reservoir systems     

Yusuf Calayir  Muhammet Karaton 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2005,25(11):857-869

In this study, the earthquake damage response of the concrete gravity dams is investigated with considering the effects of dam–reservoir interaction. A continuum damage model which is a second-order tensor and includes the strain softening behavior is selected for the concrete material. The mesh-dependent hardening technique is adopted such that the fracture energy dissipated is not affected by the finite element mesh size. The dynamic equilibrium equations of motion are solved by using the improved form of the HHT-α time integration algorithm. Two dimensional seismic analysis of Koyna gravity dam is performed by using the 1967 Koyna earthquake records. The effects of damage on the earthquake response of concrete gravity dams are discussed. Comparison of the Westergaard and Lagrangian dam–reservoir interaction solutions is made. The effects of viscous damping ratio on the damage response of the dam are also studied.  相似文献   

Performance of structures in the rural area during the March 8, 2010 Elazığ-Kovancılar earthquake     

Calayır  Yusuf  Sayın  Erkut  Yön  Burak 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):703-713

Numerous studies demonstrated the possibility of utilizing fly ash in the construction of embankments, road subgrades and stabilization of a wide range of soils. The present investigation aims at determining the optimum fly ash (OFA) for mechanical stabilization of expansive soils. Four different soils were tested for compaction characteristics and unconfined compressive strength with and without the addition of fly ash to determine the OFA. The liquid limit (LL) and the fraction coarser than 425 μ (CF) of these soils range from 50 to 120 and 25 to 70%, respectively. An experimental strategy called two-factor factorial design was adopted in the conducting experiments. LL and CF present in the soil are the two factors considered to influence the OFA content. Factorial experimentation enables relative quantification of the effect of each factor as well as their interaction with the OFA. The OFA was found to range from 5 to 40% depending upon the two factors. The LL and the CF were found to have dominating influence on OFA content in that order, whereas the interaction effect of these two factors was marginal to fair. A statistical regression model was developed for determination of the OFA in terms of the influencing factors. The validity of the model developed was verified by conducting laboratory tests on two more soils that were not used in the development of the model. Swell potential and swelling pressure of expansive soils were reduced to non-critical levels when treated with OFA.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal Assessment of Urban Heat Island Effects in Kuala Lumpur Metropolitan City Using Landsat Images     

Yusuf Ahmed Yusuf  Biswajeet Pradhan  Mohammed O. Idrees 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2014,42(4):829-837

Alteration in climatic pattern has resulted to a steady decline in quality of life and the environment, especially in and around urbanized areas. These areas are faced with increasing surface temperature arising mostly from human activities and other natural sources; hence land surface temperature has become an important variable in global climate change studies. In this paper, Landsat TM/ETM imagery acquired between 1997 and 2013 were used to extract ground brightness temperature and land use/land cover change in Kuala Lumpur metropolis. The main objective of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of quantifying UHI effects, in space and time, using remote sensing data and, also, to find the relationship between UHI and land use change. Four land use types (forest, farmland, built-up area and water) were classified from the Landsat images using maximum likelihood classification technique. The result reveals that Greater KL experienced an increase in average temperature from 312.641°K to 321.112°K which was quite eminent with an average gain in surface temperature of 8.4717°K. During the period of investigation (1997–2013), generally high temperature is been experienced mostly in concentrated built-up areas, the less concentrated have a moderate to intermediate temperature. Again, the study also shows that low and intermediate temperature classes loss more spatial extent from 2,246.89 Km² to 1,164.53 Km² and 6,102.42 Km² to 3,013.63 Km² and a gain of 4,165.963 Km² and 307.098 Km² in moderate and high temperature respectively from 1997 to 2013. The results of this study may assist planners, scientists, engineers, demographers and other social scientists concerned about urban heat island to make decisions that will enhance sustainable environmental practices.  相似文献