Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European‐scale context          下载免费PDF全文

Mikołaj Piniewski  Mateusz Szcześniak  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  Abdelkader Mezghani  Øystein Hov 《水文研究》2017,31(12):2210-2225

A number of extensive droughts and destructive floods have occurred in Poland in the last 25 years; hence, projections of low and high river flows are of considerable interest and importance. In the first part of this paper, projections of low and high flows in the rivers of the Vistula and the Odra basins (VOB region), for two future time horizons, are presented. Projections are based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model simulations driven by results of the EURO‐CORDEX experiment under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The VOB region covers most of Poland and parts of five neighboring countries, giving this study an international relevance. In the second part of the paper, a review of projections of low and high flows in rivers in Central and Eastern Europe is presented. Despite a substantial spread of flow projections, the main message of the modelling part is that increases of both low and high flows are dominating. The magnitude of increase of low flow is considerably higher than that of high flow. In other words, future streamflow droughts are projected to be less severe, whereas, in contrast, river floods are projected to increase, which is a challenge for flood risk reduction, water management, and climate change adaptation. There is an overall agreement of our findings for the VOB region with projections of hydrological extremes from large‐scale models forced by EURO‐CORDEX results in the European‐scale studies.  相似文献   

Linear and non‐linear scaling of the Yangtze River flow     

Guojie Wang  Buda Su  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  Tong Jiang 《水文研究》2008,22(10):1532-1536

Power law correlation properties of sign and magnitude series have been studied based on the series of observation records of flow of the River Yangtze. The results obtained give improved insight into and understanding of the linear and non‐linear processes of the water cycle. With the newly developed Delayed Vector Variance method and the surrogate test, the documented linkage between the sign series and the linear process, and that between the magnitude series and non‐linear process can be verified. The spectra estimated by detrended fluctuation analysis method show different properties of intra‐annual and inter‐annual correlations in both sign and magnitude series. The linear process behaves as an 1/f noise at a time scale less than about 60 days, but shows features of anti‐persistence in terms of long‐term fluctuation. The magnitudes are clustered in three ways mainly caused by non‐linear processes, i.e. periodic clustering, strong short‐term clustering of 1/f noise at time scales less than 20 days, and long‐term clustering with weak persistence. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Recent topics in boundary-layer meteorology     

Zbigniew Sorbjan 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(1):1-1

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Statistics of Turbulence in the Stable Boundary Layer Affected by Gravity Waves   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Zbigniew Sorbjan  Agnieszka Czerwinska 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,148(1):73-91

In order to investigate effects of interactions between turbulence and gravity waves in the stable boundary layer on similarity theory relationships, we re-examined a dataset, collected during three April nights in 1978 and in 1980 on the 300-m tower of the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO). The BAO site, located in Erie, Colorado, USA, 30 km east of the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, has been known for the frequent detection of wave activities. The considered profiles of turbulent fluxes and variances were normalized by two local, gradient-based scaling systems, and subsequently compared with similarity functions of the Richardson number, obtained based on data with no influence of gravity currents and topographical factors. The first scaling system was based on local values of the vertical velocity variance $\sigma _\mathrm{w}$ and the Brunt–Väisäla frequency $ N,$ while the second one was based on the temperature variance $\sigma _{\theta }$ and $N.$ Analysis showed some departures from the similarity functions (obtained for data with virtually no influence of mesoscale motions); nonetheless the overall dependency of dimensionless moments on the Richardson number was maintained.  相似文献   

X-ray Flare Spectra from the DIOGENESS Spectrometer and Its Concept Applied to ChemiX on the Interhelioprobe Spacecraft     

Janusz Sylwester  Zbigniew Kordylewski  Stefan Płocieniak  Marek Siarkowski  Mirosław Kowaliński  Stanisław Nowak  Witold Trzebiński  Marek Śtęślicki  Barbara Sylwester  Eugeniusz Stańczyk  Ryszard Zawerbny  Żaneta Szaforz  Kenneth J. H. Phillips  František Fárník  Anatolyi Stepanov 《Solar physics》2015,290(12):3683-3697

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Upper Permian Main Dolomite microbial carbonates as potential source rocks for hydrocarbons (W Poland)     

Miros?aw S?owakiewicz  Zbigniew Miko?ajewski 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2011,28(8):1572-1591

Various microbialite lithofacies were common in the shallow-water environments which flourished under highly saline and arid climate conditions in the Polish part of the Zechstein (Upper Permian) Main Dolomite (Ca2) carbonates. Data came from detailed analysis of 78 cores from wells located at the southern and northern margins of the Main Dolomite basin in west Poland. Microbialite lithofacies are represented by columnar, planar and domal stromatolites, clotted thrombolites and biolaminites developed in high-to-low energy environments within the upper slope, lower parts of oolitic barrier/shoal, restricted lagoon, and tidal flat and tidal channel zones. In barrier environments ooids were predominant whereas in lagoonal settings microbial oncoids and peloids were common. In basinal settings laminated dolomudstones formed which are regarded as hemipelagic and are partly pelagic microbial in origin. Microbial communities coexisted with algae and developed mainly within shallow marine environments. Microbialites are built of cyanobacterial filaments and organo-mineral coccoidal forms possibly of bacterial origin. Organic geochemistry data confirm that organic matter was transformed by cyanobacteria and bacteria which may have played a main role in hydrocarbon generation. This is confirmed by C₂₉ to C₃₅ hopanes, Pr/Ph ratio below 1.0, and the presence of gammacerane as typical for Ca2 profiles. The role and occurrence of algae, as confirmed by C₂₉-steranes, in hydrocarbon generation was possibly minor. Thus it is concluded that the Main Dolomite microbialites could be the likely source rocks for hydrocarbons, with calculated original TOC values from 0.8 to ca 2.0 wt. %. These units also form the reservoir rocks, with porosities reaching 20%.  相似文献   

A numerical study of daily transitions in the convective boundary layer     

Zbigniew Sorbjan 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,123(3):365-383

We examine daily (morning–afternoon) transitions in the atmospheric boundary layer based on large-eddy simulations. Under consideration are the effects of the stratification at the top of the mixed layer and of the wind shear. The results describe the transitory behaviour of temperature and wind velocity, their second moments, the boundary-layer height Z _m (defined by the maximum of the potential temperature gradient) and its standard deviation σ _m , the mixed-layer height z _i (defined by the minimum of the potential temperature flux), entrainment velocity W _e, and the entrainment flux H _i . The entrainment flux and the entrainment velocity are found to lag slightly in time with respect to the surface temperature flux. The simulations imply that the atmospheric values of velocity variances, measured at various instants during the daytime, and normalized in terms of the actual convective scale w_*, are not expected to collapse to a single curve, but to produce a significant scatter of observational points. The measured values of the temperature variance, normalized in terms of the actual convective scale Θ_*, are expected to form a single curve in the mixed layer, and to exhibit a considerable scatter in the interfacial layer.  相似文献   

Fuzzy logic circulation types based on the Osuchowska-Klein classification system created for Poland     

Jadwiga Woyciechowska  Zbigniew Ustrnul 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,104(3-4):543-549

Fuzzy logic was applied as a methodology to create an objective calendar of daily atmospheric circulation based on an existing atmospheric circulation classification system for Poland called the Osuchowska-Klein method, which includes 13 circulation patterns. In this study, circulation patterns given by Osuchowska-Klein were expressed as normalized values of sea level pressure in a regular 5°?×?5° grid over the area of interest. Cases of daily atmospheric circulation (i.e., normalized values for the same domain) observed from January 1948 to December 2007 were defined in the same manner. The pattern-matching procedure employed in the study was made objective with the application of fuzzy logic sets in a few steps as follows: (1) discrimination and grouping of grid points as well as their classification in order to clearly define each Osuchowska-Klein circulation pattern, (2) calculation of the similarity between observed normalized pressure and that of the pattern at each selected grid point using a membership function, (3) determination of the degree of fulfillment for every class of grid points, (4) determination of the degree of a case and pattern, (5) selection of the circulation type for a particular day based on the degree of fulfillment for each pattern. The largest value of the degree of fulfillment indicates the type of circulation pattern on any given day. Finally, a validation of the obtained results is discussed. This was accomplished using the chi-square test and a comparison of consistency between the traditional and objective approach types. The results do show some differences between the subjective and objective methods, however, they are not major differences, especially when taking into account the fact that the two methods are quite different, as well as the complex nature of pressure systems.  相似文献   

Advances in geophysical processes — Models and methods     

Mariusz Białecki  Zbigniew Czechowski 《Acta Geophysica》2013,61(6):1323-1324

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U‐Pb zircon dating of metaigneous rocks from the Nordbreen Nappe of Svalbard’s Ny‐Friesland suggests their affinity to Northeast Greenland     

Jakub Bazarnik  Jaros&#x;aw Majka  William C. McClelland  Justin V. Strauss  Karolina Komi&#x;ska  Karsten Piepjohn  Synnve Elvevold  Zbigniew Czupyt  Tom&#x; Miku&#x; 《地学学报》2019,31(6):518-526

SIMS U‐Pb zircon dating of metaigneous rocks of the Nordbreen Nappe from the West Ny‐Friesland terrane (Eastern Basement Province of Svalbard) yields crystallization ages of 1,761 ± 4 Ma for a felsic metatuff and 1,373 ± 4 Ma for a metagabbro dyke. The Palaeoproterozoic age of the metatuff is similar to previously obtained ages for various felsic rocks from the study area, whereas the Mesoproterozoic age of the metagabbro has not been thus far documented on Svalbard. However, a similar age pattern has been reported from Northeast Greenland. Therefore, we conclude that the West Ny‐Friesland terrane can be correlated with age equivalent units of Northeast Greenland. We also explore similarities and dissimilarities between the study area and other terranes of Svalbard and speculate on regional‐scale correlations. Together, the presented new ages provide critical piercing points in palaeogeographic reconstructions of the relatively poorly understood circum‐Arctic region.  相似文献