Development of 1km-Scale Operational Model in South China     

陈子通  戴光丰  吴凯昕  钟水新  徐道生 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):319-329

To support short-range weather forecast, a high-resolution model (1km) is developed and technicallyupgraded in the South China Regional Center, including the improvement of the 3D reference scheme and predictor-corrector method for Semi-Implicit and Semi-Lagrangian (SISL) in model dynamical core, as well as the improvementof physical parameterization. Furthermore, the multi-process parallel I/O and parallel nudging techniques are developedand have facilitated rapid updating in the assimilation prediction system and fast-output post processing process. Theexperimental results show that the improved 3D reference scheme and upgraded physic schemes can effectively improvethe prediction accuracy and stability with a longer integration time step. The batch test shows that the precipitationforecast performance of 1-km model is significantly better than that of 3-km model. The 1-km model is in operation withrapidly updating cycle at 12-minute intervals, which can be applied to short-range forecast and nowcasting application.  相似文献   

THE APPLICATION OF ASSIMILATED AIRCRAFT DATA IN SIMULATING A HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTH CHINA IN JUNE 2005   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

梁科  万齐林  丁伟钰  陈子通  黄燕燕 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(2):160-164

Regular and irregular observational data are used to analyze and simulate a torrential rain over the south of China on 18 – 24 June 2005. Since the regular data cannot depict the rainfall system fully, GRAPES model is used to simulate this process. Different data are assimilated for 12 hours by its simulating system and different analysis data are obtained. In order to analyze how well the model forecast has been improved with the addition of assimilated aircraft data, these different analysis data are used as the first-guess data to conduct two control numerical simulation tests. From these tests, it is proved that the model that adds aircraft assimilation data can simulate the main region of precipitation, which is more consistent with the observed precipitation than the model that does not, and that the accuracy rate is also improved. These numerical simulation tests not only show that it is necessary and capable to improve the modeling of this torrential rain process by using aircraft data, but also lays the foundation for forecasting heavy rains in the south of China based on aircraft data.  相似文献   

中尺度数值模式的资料同化系统——(一)伴随模式的设计          下载免费PDF全文

陈子通  沈桐立  丁一汇  孙麟平 《大气科学学报》1998,21(2):165-172

以一个有限区域的中尺度模式为基础,采用伴随模式技术进行有限区域气象资料的同化。伴随模式的方法是以数值天气预报的动力模式作为约束条件的变分方法,比传统的变分方法有了很大的改进。本文初步探讨了伴随模式系统的设计方法,特别是伴随模式的构造问题;用共轭码的方法导出伴随模式;初步试验表明该系统有较强的同化能力。  相似文献   

对流参数化方案的改进对GRAPES模式台风预报的影响研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐道生  陈子通  戴光丰  钟水新  杨兆礼 《热带气象学报》2014,(2):210-218

将由NCEP改进之后的SAS(Simplified Arakawa-Shubert Scheme)对流参数化方案（NSAS方案）应用到GRAPES模式中,并对“启德”台风进行模拟,通过和原来SAS方案的预报结果进行比较,发现新方案对台风路径预报有显著改进。通过对NSAS方案中几个新增加的因素进行敏感性试验,发现其中对由于对流引发的扰动气压场如何影响动量输送这个问题的处理使得台风路径预报效果变差,采用动量的水平混合代替风场切变来对扰动气压场进行参数化以后,可有效改进该方案的预报效果。考虑动量的水平混合系数随高度变化可进一步改善预报结果。通过比较多个台风的预报结果发现,这种改进对台风路径预报的改进较稳定   相似文献   

柴达木盆地西部地区古近系及新近系碳酸盐岩沉积相   总被引：10，自引：3，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

张敏  尹成明  寿建峰  陈子炓  张跃中 《古地理学报》2004,6(4):391-400

柴达木盆地西部地区古近系和新近系湖相碳酸盐岩主要分布于下干柴沟组上段到油砂山组,其中,下干柴沟组上段和上干柴沟组的碳酸盐岩更发育。碳酸盐岩主要岩石类型有泥晶灰岩、藻灰岩和颗粒灰岩等三大类,此外,还普遍发育由石灰质、白云质和陆源碎屑等3种组分构成的混积岩。碳酸盐岩沉积相可划分为滨湖灰泥坪、滨湖藻坪、浅湖颗粒滩、浅湖藻丘以及半深湖泥灰岩相。滨湖灰泥坪的主要岩石类型有泥晶灰岩、含陆屑泥晶灰岩、陆屑泥晶灰岩以及陆屑泥灰岩等;滨湖藻坪为藻泥晶灰岩、藻纹层灰岩、含陆屑藻泥晶灰岩;浅湖颗粒滩有亮晶或泥微晶的鲕粒灰岩、生屑灰岩和内碎屑灰岩,其次为含陆屑颗粒灰岩;浅湖藻丘为藻叠层灰岩、藻团块灰岩、藻泥晶灰岩和含陆屑藻泥晶灰岩;而半深湖泥灰岩相的主要岩石类型为泥晶灰岩、泥灰岩以及含少量陆屑泥和粉砂的泥晶灰岩或泥灰岩。碳酸盐岩沉积相表现出很强的由西南向东北的迁移性。  相似文献   

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD PARAMETERIZATION ADJUSTMENT USING REFLECTIVITY OF DOPPLER ON NOWCASTING WITH GRAPES MODEL   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张艳霞  陈子通  蒙伟光  黄燕燕  戴光丰  丁伟钰 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2014,20(2):181-192

In this study, we attempted to improve the nowcasting of GRAPES model by adjusting the model initial field through modifying the cloud water, rain water and vapor as well as revising vapor-following rain water. The results show that the model nowcasting is improved when only the cloud water and rain water are adjusted or all of the cloud water, rain water and vapor are adjusted in the initial field. The forecasting of the former （latter） approach during 0-3 （0-6） hours is significantly improved. Furthermore, for the forecast for 0-3 hours, the latter approach is better than the former. Compared with the forecasting results for which the vapor of the model initial field is adjusted by the background vapor with those by the revised vapor, the nowcasting of the revised vapor is much better than that of background vapor. Analysis of the reasons indicated that when the vapor is adjusted in the model initial field, especially when the saturated vapor is considered, the forecasting of the vapor field is significantly affected. The changed vapor field influences the circulation, which in turn improves the model forecasting of radar reflectivity and rainfall.  相似文献   

基于Copula函数的广东北江流域极端降水指标概率分布特征     

刘占明  燊陈子  黄强 《热带地理》2014,(6)

选用9种概率分布函数对广东北江流域18测站近50 a极端降水指标R1d(年内最大1日降水量)和R5d(年内最大连续5日降水量)进行拟合,采用线性矩法估计参数,根据拟合优度检验,确定出最佳的概率分布函数,并在此基础上对50 a、100 a一遇设计值进行空间分析。通过择优选取GH Copula作为联接函数,对流域R1d-R5d联合概率分布进行研究。结果表明:1)翁源、清远地区出现50 a、100 a一遇的R1d或R5d概率较大;中北部地区50 a、100 a一遇的R1d和R5d同时出现的概率较大。2)特定R1d设计频率条件下,随着R5d设计频率的减小,二者遭遇概率也随之迅速减小;反之,特定R5d设计频率随R1d条件频率的减小,二者遭遇概率随之明显增大。  相似文献   

多种蒸散发公式在珠江流域的适用性分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

黄强  陈子 《热带地理》2014,(6)

利用珠江流域42个观测站点的逐日气象数据对比分析了FAO56 Penman-Monteith(PM)、Priestley-Taylor、Hargreaves-Samani和Thornthwaite等4种蒸散发公式在珠江流域的适用性,并研究了在资料有限情况下PM公式的计算精度。PM公式由于详细考虑了空气动力与能量供给对蒸散发的影响,其在不同季节和地区的计算结果都较为稳定,并且与实际的观测接近,最适用于珠江流域的蒸散发计算。在蒸散发的计算中,日照时数的缺测对PM公式计算精度的影响最大,风速次之。通过设定修正系数后的PMT公式,计算精度得到了明显提高,在一定程度上可以满足对蒸散发计算的精度要求。因此,在其他资料缺失的情况下,只利用气温数据计算的PMT公式可成为一种理想的蒸散发计算公式。  相似文献   

川东—鄂西地区二叠纪生物礁 成因类型及潜伏礁预测     

陈子  src="image/.gif"  width=""height=""  alt=".gif   《地质通报》2000

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南海台风模式对台风利奇马快速增强预报能力研究     

黄燕燕  陈子通  冯业荣  张艳霞  徐道生  郑彬  靳卫卫 《气象》2024,50(5):532-546

针对台风利奇马（1909）,分析中国气象局南海台风模式（CMA-TRAMS）和欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率模式（HRES）对台风快速增强的业务预报情况,并基于CMA-TRAMS,从水平分辨率、初始场和边界条件、物理参数化方案等角度设计并开展数值敏感性试验。CMA-TRAMS和HRES对“利奇马”增强具有一定预报能力,但对快速增强的速度预报明显低于实况,均不能满足24h和12h快速增强标准,可达到6h快速增强标准。CMA-TRAMS采用3km分辨率对“利奇马”移动路径和强度变化的预报效果优于9km分辨率,但未改进快速增强预报效果;采用3km嵌套9km的方案,模式对台风快速增强的预报效果明显提升。采用MRF边界层参数化方案对台风路径、强度、快速增强的预报效果总体优于YSU方案。海温参数化结合32层垂直分辨率的初始场和边界条件的方案明显提高了快速增强预报效果,预报快速增强的频次、增强的最大速度更接近实况。分析表明,海温参数化方案使海气温差增大,在短时间内对大气、海洋之间的热量输送和交换有明显影响,海洋向大气输送的感热通量和台风内核区的潜热通量加强使内核更暖湿、气压负倾向增大,是预报效果改进的主要原因。  相似文献