From marginal to conditional probability functions of parameters in a conceptual rainfall–runoff model: an event-based approach     

Santiago Sandoval  Jean-Luc Bertrand-Krajewski 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):1340-1350

ABSTRACT

A parameter estimation strategy for a conceptual rainfall–runoff (CRR) model applied to a storm sewer system in an urban catchment (Chassieu, Lyon, France) is proposed on the basis of event-by-event Bayesian local calibrations. The marginal distribution formed by locally-estimated parameters is divided into conditional functions, clustering the event-based parameters based on their transferability to similar rainfall events. The conditional functions showed to be consistent with an observed bimodality in the marginal representation, reflecting two different hydrological conditions mainly related to the magnitude of the rainfall intensities (high or low). The improvements achieved by expressing the parameter probability functions into a conditional form are shown in terms of accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion), precision (average relative interval length) and reliability (percentage of coverage) for simulating flow rate in 255 and 110 calibration/verification events.  相似文献   

Geochemical processes in a Mediterranean Lake: a high-resolution study of the last 4,000 years in Zoñar Lake,southern Spain     

Celia Martín-Puertas  Blas L. Valero-Garcés  M. Pilar Mata  Ana Moreno  Santiago Giralt  Francisca Martínez-Ruiz  Francisco Jiménez-Espejo 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2011,46(3):405-421

High-resolution geochemical analysis of a 6-m-long sediment core from Zoñar Lake, southern Spain, provides a detailed characterization of major changes in lake and watershed processes during the last 4,000 years. Geochemical variables were used as paleolimnological indicators and complement Zoñar Lakes’s paleoenvironmental reconstruction based on sedimentological and biological proxies, which define periods of increasing allochthonous input to the lake and periods of dominant autochthonous sedimentation. Chemical ratios identify periods of endogenic carbonate formation (higher Ca/Al, Sr/Al and Ba/Al ratios), evaporite precipitation (higher S/Al, Sr/Al ratios), and anoxic conditions (higher Mo/Al, U/Th ratios and Eu anomaly). Higher productivity is marked by elevated organic carbon content and carbonate precipitation (Mg/Ca). Hydrological reconstruction for Zoñar Lake was based on sedimentological, mineralogical and biological proxies, and shows that lower lake levels are characterized by Sr-rich sediments (a brackish lake with aragonite) and S-rich sediments (a saline lake with gypsum), while higher lake levels are characterized by sediments enriched in elements associated with alumino-silicates (Al, K, Ti, Fe, trace and rare earth elements), reflecting fresher conditions. Geochemical indicators also mark periods of higher detrital input to the lake related to human activity in the watershed: (1) during the Iberian Roman Humid Period (650 BC–AD 300), around the onset of the Little Ice Age (AD 1400), during the relatively drier Post-Roman and Middle Ages (AD 800–1400), and over the last 50 years, due to mechanized farming practices. Heavy metal enrichment in the sediments (Cu and Ni) suggests intensification of human activities during the Iberian Roman Period, and the use of fertilizers during the last 50 years.  相似文献   

Hydrochemical dynamics of the “lake–spring” system in the crater of El Chichón volcano (Chiapas,Mexico)     

D. Rouwet  Y. Taran  S. Inguaggiato  N. Varley  J.A. Santiago Santiago 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, Mexico) erupted violently in March–April 1982, breaching through the former volcano–hydrothermal system. Since then, the 1982 crater has hosted a shallow (1–3.3 m, acidic (pH ∼ 2.2) and warm (∼ 30 °C) crater lake with a strongly varying chemistry (Cl/SO₄ = 0–79 molar ratio). The changes in crater lake chemistry and volume are not systematically related to the seasonal variation of rainfall, but rather to the activity of near-neutral geyser-like springs in the crater (Soap Pool). These Soap Pool springs are the only sources of Cl for the lake. Their geyser-like behaviour with a long-term (months to years) periodicity is due to a specific geometry of the shallow boiling aquifer beneath the lake, which is the remnant of the 1983 Cl-rich (24,000 mg/l) crater lake water. The Soap Pool springs decreased in Cl content over time. The zero-time extrapolation (1982, year of the eruption) approaches the Cl content in the initial crater lake, meanwhile the extrapolation towards the future indicates a zero-Cl content by 2009 ± 1. This particular situation offers the opportunity to calculate mass balance and Cl budget to quantify the lake–spring system in the El Chichón crater. These calculations show that the water balance without the input of SP springs is negative, implying that the lake should disappear during the dry season. The isotopic composition of lake waters (δD and δ¹⁸O) coincide with this crater lake-SP dynamics, reflecting evaporation processes and mixing with SP geyser and meteoric water. Future dome growth, not observed yet in the post-1982 El Chichón crater, may be anticipated by changes in lake chemistry and dynamics.  相似文献   

Large-Scale and Mesoscale Distribution of Plankton Biomass and Metabolic Activity in the Northeastern Central Atlantic     

Santiago Hernández-León  Lutz Postel  Javier Arístegui  May Gómez  María Fernanda Montero  Santiago Torres  Carlos Almeida  Eugen Kühner  Ullrich Brenning  Eberhard Hagen 《Journal of Oceanography》1999,55(4):471-482

Plankton biomass and indices of metabolism and growth [electron transport system (ETS), glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) and aspartate transcarbamylase (ATC) activities] were studied over a 2,800 km east-west section of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean (21°N) in <200, 200–500 and >;500 µm size classes. On the large-scale, zooplankton (>;200 µm) enzymatic activities increased westward in the study section, where large cyanobacteria chains (Trichodesmium spp.) were observed. Parallel to it, an increase in medium calanoids (1–2 mm length) was observed towards the western part of the transect, whereas small calanoids (<1 mm) were dominant throughout the boundary area of the subtropical gyre. Microplankton ETS and mesoplankton ETS and ATC activities seemed to match the wave length of low frequency waves. Our results suggest that such waves are related to the observed enhancement of metabolic activity of micro- and mesoplankton. The large-scale and mesoscale variability observed give evidence of the inadequacy of assuming a steady-state picture of the euphotic zone of tropical and subtropical waters.  相似文献   

Regional and species specific sexual reproductive patterns of three zooxanthellate scleractinian corals across the Eastern Tropical Pacific          下载免费PDF全文

Jeimy D. Santiago‐Valentín  Susan B. Colley  Peter W. Glynn  Amilcar L. Cupul‐Magaña  Ramon A. López‐Pérez  Fabián A. Rodríguez‐Zaragoza  Francisco Benítez‐Villalobos  Eric Bautista‐Guerrero  Denisse A. Zavala‐Casas  Alma P. Rodríguez‐Troncoso 《Marine Ecology》2018,39(2)

Sexual reproduction of zooxanthellate scleractinian corals in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) is influenced by the interactive effects of regional and local oceanographic conditions, as well as a variety of other environmental factors. Differences in spatial and temporal gamete development and reproductive patterns of three widespread scleractinian corals of this region—Pocillopora damicornis (branching colony morphology, characterized as hermaphrodite broadcaster), Pavona gigantea (massive colonies, characterized as gonochoric broadcaster/sequential co‐sexually hermaphroditic) and Porites panamensis (encrusting colonies, characterized as gonochoric brooder)—were evaluated at local and regional scales across the ETP. This area extended from the Gulf of California (24°N) to the southern coast of Ecuador (–1°S), including offshore islands, using existing data pooled from prior studies. Predictive models were employed based on environmental variables: sea surface temperature, daylight hours, diffuse attenuation co‐efficient at 490 nm and photosynthetically active radiation. Datasets were extracted from satellite images ( https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov ) and analysed using WAM_STATIST ver. 6.33® software to obtain monthly average data from each site. The spatial (region, sub‐region and site) and seasonal (wet, dry) variation in reproductive activity (% colonies with gametes) differed among the three species; significant interactions were season × sub‐region for P. damicornis, season × site (sub‐region) for P. gigantea, and season × site for P. panamensis, for which sub‐region was not considered as a factor. The predictive models also suggest that gamete production/maturation of P. damicornis and P. gigantea is influenced by local differences in sea surface temperature and daylight hours. Porites panamensis was not correlated with any environmental variable examined. Variations in local and regional reproductive developmental patterns are likely an acclimatization response by each species imposed by the timing and duration of local stressor events. This analysis has provided insights into the diverse local and regional physical drivers that affect species responses and acclimatization in sexual reproduction across the ETP.  相似文献   

Modelling of chloride ingress into concrete through a single‐ion approach. Application to an idealized surface crack pattern     

Santiago Guzmán  Jaime C. Gálvez  José M. Sancho 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(16):1683-1706

The paper examines ion (chloride) transport equations in porous media (concrete) integrated over a representative elementary volume, that is to say, averaging over the macroscopic level the phenomena that occur really at the pore scale. There are three basic variables to be used: chloride concentration, moisture and temperature. The diffusion process is examined, in addition to other phenomena such as convection (the motion of dissolved substances caused by flow of water in a pore solution of partially saturated media) or chloride binding (the capacity of free chloride of being chemically bound, particularly with C₃A to form Friedel salts). Contrary to other approaches, such effects are not considered by means of apparent diffusion coefficients but by developing the complete set of time‐dependent equations for both the chloride concentration within the pore solution and the moisture content within the pore space. Once the general model is described, the system of equations can be solved numerically by means of a two‐dimensional finite element formulation. The main objective is to reproduce results of experimental tests by means of a priori parameter estimation, according to the characteristics of materials and external environment conditions, thereby superseding the well‐known best fit a posteriori through Fick's second equation. While the introduction of hygrometric conditions and convection phenomena appears to be of high significance, other factors like temperature, surface concentration, chloride binding or equivalent hydration time are analysed too. The proposed model can reproduce bidimensional complex geometries, for example, cracked concrete cover, as well as variable surface condition. An application case is developed through a realistic model of the geometry of a crack. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Late Pleistocene–Holocene environmental and climatic history of a freshwater paramo ecosystem in the northern Andes     

Luisa Patiño  Maria Isabel Velez  Marion Weber  César A. Velásquez-r  Santiago David  Manuela Rueda  Ivonne Castañeda  Diana Arboleda 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(8):1046-1056

This study presents the first multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic history for northern South America based on the palaeolimnological reconstruction of a pond located in a dry paramo at 3570 masl. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the study area was under glacial conditions, then during global events Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), Bølling–Allerød (BA), and the Younger Dryas (YD), the pond expanded, accumulation rates and proxies for erosion reached the highest values, indicative of humid conditions, with maxima in humidity during the BA and YD. Dry conditions and pond desiccation occurred in the Greenlandian–Northgrippian and by 6010 cal a bp the area was transformed into the mire of today. Comparisons with records from other sites in South America indicate that changes in humidity are most likely controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, mainly during the glacial and postglacial, and by changes in the Pacific Ocean, more pronounced after the YD.  相似文献   

Effects of Unstable Thermal Stratification on Vertical Fluxes of Heat and Momentum in Urban Areas     

Andres Simón-Moral  Jose Luis Santiago  Alberto Martilli 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,163(1):103-121

A Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes microscale model is used for the simulation of the effect of unstable thermal stratification on the flow within an aligned configuration of building-like cubes as used in Santiago et al. (Urban Clim 9:115–133, 2014). The spatially-averaged results show increased dispersive fluxes, turbulent length scales and sectional drag coefficient. An extension of K-theory is presented to parametrize the sum of the turbulent and dispersive fluxes, and the length scale and drag coefficient increases are parametrized as functions of the ratio of buoyant and inertial forces. This approach improves the results of urban canopy parametrization simulations inside and above the urban canyon and represents the first attempt to account for the dispersive fluxes and the effect of solar radiation on the flow.  相似文献   

On-site Stress Measurements of a Flying Buttress in the Palma de Mallorca (Spain) Cathedral     

Santiago Sánchez-Beitia 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(1):315-319

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Modeling the Invasion of Holly (Ilex aquifolium): Spatial Relationships and Spread Trajectories     

Santiago López  David L. Stokes 《The Professional geographer》2016,68(3):399-413

In this study, we investigated the environmental factors associated with the establishment of invasive English holly (Ilex aquifolium) and the spatiotemporal trajectories of its potential spread. We collected georeferenced presence and absence and demographic data of holly between 2011 and 2014 in Saint Edward State Park, Washington. We analyzed them through a spatially explicit framework that combines multiple logistic regression, cellular automata, and bivariate quadratic modeling. Results showed that the presence of holly is influenced by the proximity to evergreen coniferous vegetation and forest edge, distance to streams, forest structure, and slope direction. Our study confirmed that local environmental conditions, species characteristics, and vegetative and dispersal mechanisms play a significant role in determining the rate and success of holly establishment across the different phases of invasion. Invasive species management plans should consider both species characteristics and their habitat and the interactions among them when planning long-term strategies for control and eradication.  相似文献