Numerical modeling of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique: the cases of tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Alberto José Bié  Ricardo de Camargo  Alberto Francisco Mavume  Joseph Harari 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(11):1443-1459

The coast of Mozambique is often affected by storms, particularly tropical cyclones during summer or sometimes midlatitude systems in the southern part. Storm surges combined with high freshwater discharge can drive huge coastal floods, affecting both urban and rural areas. To improve the knowledge about the impact of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique, this study presents the first attempt to model this phenomenon through the implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Southwestern Indian Ocean domain (SWIO; 2–32°S, 28–85°E) using a regular grid with 1/6° of spatial resolution and 36 sigma levels. The simulation was performed for the period 1979–2010, and the most interesting events of surges were related to tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) that occurred in the Mozambique Channel. The results showed that the model represented well the amplitude and phase of principal lunar and solar tidal constituents, as well as it captured the spatial pattern and magnitudes of SST with slight positive bias in summer and negative bias in winter months. In terms of SSH, the model underestimated the presence of mesoscale eddies, mainly in the Mozambique Channel. Our results also showed that the atmospheric sea level pressure had a significant contribution to storm heights during the landfall of the tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) in the coast of Mozambique contributing with about 20 and 16% of the total surge height for each case, respectively, surpassing the contribution of the tide-surge nonlinear interactions by a factor of 2.  相似文献   

A Method to Estimate the Hydraulic Conductivity of the Ground by TRT Analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Alberto Liuzzo Scorpo  Bo Nordell  Signhild Gehlin 《Ground water》2017,55(1):110-118

The knowledge of hydraulic properties of aquifers is important in many engineering applications. Careful design of ground‐coupled heat exchangers requires that the hydraulic characteristics and thermal properties of the aquifer must be well understood. Knowledge of groundwater flow rate and aquifer thermal properties is the basis for proper design of such plants. Different methods have been developed in order to estimate hydraulic conductivity by evaluating the transport of various tracers (chemical, heat etc.); thermal response testing (TRT) is a specific type of heat tracer that allows including the hydraulic properties in an effective thermal conductivity value. Starting from these considerations, an expeditious, graphical method was proposed to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, using TRT data and plausible assumption. Suggested method, which is not yet verified or proven to be reliable, should be encouraging further studies and development in this direction.  相似文献   

SlugIn 1.0: A Free Tool for Automated Slug Test Analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Sergio Martos‐Rosillo  Carolina Guardiola‐Albert  Alberto Padilla Benítez  Joaquín Delgado Pastor  Antonio Azcón González  Juan José Durán Valsero 《Ground water》2018,56(3):362-365

The correct characterization of aquifer parameters is essential for water‐supply and water‐quality investigations. Slug tests are widely used for these purposes. While free software is available to interpret slug tests, some codes are not user‐friendly, or do not include a wide range of methods to interpret the results, or do not include automatic, inverse solutions to the test data. The private sector has also generated several good programs to interpret slug test data, but they are not free of charge. The computer program SlugIn 1.0 is available online for free download, and is demonstrated to aid in the analysis of slug tests to estimate hydraulic parameters. The program provides an easy‐to‐use Graphical User Interface. SlugIn 1.0 incorporates automated parameter estimation and facilitates the visualization of several interpretations of the same test. It incorporates solutions for confined and unconfined aquifers, partially penetrating wells, skin effects, shape factor, anisotropy, high hydraulic conductivity formations and the Mace test for large‐diameter wells. It is available in English and Spanish and can be downloaded from the web site of the Geological Survey of Spain. Two field examples are presented to illustrate how the software operates.  相似文献   

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change     

Alberto Troccoli  Filippo Zambon  Kevin I. Hodges  Marco Marani 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):1065-1079

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.  相似文献   

Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage     

Catarina Costa  Rui Figueiredo  Vitor Silva  Paolo Bazzurro 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(12):1236-1255

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.  相似文献   

Assessment of calanchi and rill–interrill erosion susceptibilities using terrain analysis and geostochastics: A case study in the Oltrepo Pavese,Northern Apennines,Italy     

Alberto Bosino  Paolo Giordani  Geraldine Quénéhervé  Michael Maerker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(12):3025-3041

Soil erosion is one of the most important environmental problems distributed worldwide. In the last decades, numerous studies have been published on the assessment of soil erosion and the related processes and forms using empirical, conceptual and physically based models. For the prediction of the spatial distribution, more and more sophisticated stochastic modelling approaches have been proposed – especially on smaller spatial scales such as river basins. In this work, we apply a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate badlands (calanchi) and rill–interrill (sheet erosion) areas in the Oltrepo Pavese (Northern Apennines, Italy). The aim of the work is to assess the important environmental predictors that influence calanchi and rill–interrill erosion at the regional scale. We used 13 topographic parameters derived from a 12 m digital elevation model (TanDEM-X) and data on the lithology and land use. Additional information about the vegetation is introduced through the normalized difference vegetation index based on remotely sensed data (ASTER images). The results are presented in the form of susceptibility maps showing the spatial distribution of the occurrence probability for calanchi and rill–interrill erosion. For the validation of the MaxEnt model results, a support vector machine approach was applied. The models show reliable results and highlight several locations of the study area that are potentially prone to future soil erosion. Thus, coping and mitigation strategies may be developed to prevent or fight the soil erosion phenomenon under consideration. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Misinterpretation of the Kenessey method for the determination of the runoff coefficient: a review     

Lucio D’Alberto  Giorgia Lucianetti 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(3):288-296

The calculation of runoff and infiltration parameters is a fundamental task for water budget estimation and water resources management. The “Kenessey method” allows these values to be calculated and its use is widespread among water scientists and practitioners. Due to language barriers and inefficient translation in past decades, the method has undergone some misinterpretations and is now far from its original usefulness and purpose. The use of the modified method can give unreal results for specific climatic zones. The purpose of this paper is to point out these methodological variations and to return to the original approach, improving it with modern technology.  相似文献   

Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins     

Ivo Colombo  Giovanni M. Porta  Paolo Ruffo  Alberto Guadagnini 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(2):385-403

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.  相似文献   

Methods for estimating the velocities of the Brazil Current in the pre-salt reservoir area off southeast Brazil (23∘ S–26∘ S)     

Tiago Carrilho Biló  Ilson Carlos Almeida da Silveira  Wellington Ceccopieri Belo  Belmiro Mendes de Castro  Alberto Ricardo Piola 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(10):1431-1446

The Brazil Current (BC) is likely the least observed and investigated subtropical western boundary current in the world. This study proposes a simple and systematic methodology to estimate quasi-synoptic cross-sectional speeds of the BC within the Santos Basin (23^° S–26^° S) based on the dynamic method using several combinations of data: Conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD), temperature profiles, CTD and vessel-mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (VMADCP), and temperature profiles and VMADCP. All of the geostrophic estimates agree well with lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (LADCP) velocity observations and yield volume transports of -5.56 ±1.31 and 2.50 ±1.01 Sv for the BC and the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC), respectively. The LADCP data revealed that the BC flows southwestward and is ～100 km wide, 500 m deep, and has a volume transport of approximately -5.75 ±1.53 Sv and a maximum speed of 0.59 m s^?1. Underneath the BC, the IWBC flows northeastward and has a vertical extent of approximately 1,300 m, a width of ～60 km, a maximum velocity of ～0.22 m s?¹, and a volume transport of 4.11 ± 2.01 Sv. Our analysis indicates that in the absence of the observed velocities, the isopycnal (σ ₀) of 26.82 kg m^?3 (～500 dbar) is an adequate level of no motion for use in geostrophic calculations. Additionally, a simple linear relationship between the temperature and the specific volume anomaly can be used for a reliable first estimate of the BC-IWBC system in temperature-only transects.  相似文献   

Performance of buildings with masonry infill walls during the 2011 Lorca earthquake   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Lutz Hermanns  Alberto Fraile  Enrique Alarcón  Ramón Álvarez 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):1977-1997

On Wednesday 11th May 2011 at 6:47 pm (local time) a magnitude 5.1 Mw earthquake occurred 6 km northeast of Lorca with a depth of around 5 km. As a consequence of the shallow depth and the small epicentral distance, important damage was produced in several masonry constructions and even led to the collapse of one of them. Pieces of the facades of several buildings fell down onto the sidewalk, being one of the reasons for the killing of a total of 9 people. The objective of this paper is to describe and analyze the failure patterns observed in reinforced concrete frame buildings with masonry infill walls ranging from 3 to 8 floors in height. Structural as well as non-structural masonry walls suffered important damage that led to redistributions of forces causing in some cases the failure of columns. The importance of the interaction between the structural frames and the infill panels is analyzed by means of non-linear Finite Element Models. The resulting load levels are compared with the member capacities and the changes of the mechanical properties during the seismic event are described and discussed. In the light of the results obtained the observed failure patterns are explained. Some comments are stated concerning the adequacy of the numerical models that are usually used during the design phase for the seismic analysis.  相似文献