Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins     

Ivo Colombo  Giovanni M. Porta  Paolo Ruffo  Alberto Guadagnini 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(2):385-403

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.  相似文献   

Methods for estimating the velocities of the Brazil Current in the pre-salt reservoir area off southeast Brazil (23∘ S–26∘ S)     

Tiago Carrilho Biló  Ilson Carlos Almeida da Silveira  Wellington Ceccopieri Belo  Belmiro Mendes de Castro  Alberto Ricardo Piola 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(10):1431-1446

The Brazil Current (BC) is likely the least observed and investigated subtropical western boundary current in the world. This study proposes a simple and systematic methodology to estimate quasi-synoptic cross-sectional speeds of the BC within the Santos Basin (23^° S–26^° S) based on the dynamic method using several combinations of data: Conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD), temperature profiles, CTD and vessel-mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (VMADCP), and temperature profiles and VMADCP. All of the geostrophic estimates agree well with lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (LADCP) velocity observations and yield volume transports of -5.56 ±1.31 and 2.50 ±1.01 Sv for the BC and the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC), respectively. The LADCP data revealed that the BC flows southwestward and is ～100 km wide, 500 m deep, and has a volume transport of approximately -5.75 ±1.53 Sv and a maximum speed of 0.59 m s^?1. Underneath the BC, the IWBC flows northeastward and has a vertical extent of approximately 1,300 m, a width of ～60 km, a maximum velocity of ～0.22 m s?¹, and a volume transport of 4.11 ± 2.01 Sv. Our analysis indicates that in the absence of the observed velocities, the isopycnal (σ ₀) of 26.82 kg m^?3 (～500 dbar) is an adequate level of no motion for use in geostrophic calculations. Additionally, a simple linear relationship between the temperature and the specific volume anomaly can be used for a reliable first estimate of the BC-IWBC system in temperature-only transects.  相似文献   

Performance of buildings with masonry infill walls during the 2011 Lorca earthquake   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Lutz Hermanns  Alberto Fraile  Enrique Alarcón  Ramón Álvarez 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):1977-1997

On Wednesday 11th May 2011 at 6:47 pm (local time) a magnitude 5.1 Mw earthquake occurred 6 km northeast of Lorca with a depth of around 5 km. As a consequence of the shallow depth and the small epicentral distance, important damage was produced in several masonry constructions and even led to the collapse of one of them. Pieces of the facades of several buildings fell down onto the sidewalk, being one of the reasons for the killing of a total of 9 people. The objective of this paper is to describe and analyze the failure patterns observed in reinforced concrete frame buildings with masonry infill walls ranging from 3 to 8 floors in height. Structural as well as non-structural masonry walls suffered important damage that led to redistributions of forces causing in some cases the failure of columns. The importance of the interaction between the structural frames and the infill panels is analyzed by means of non-linear Finite Element Models. The resulting load levels are compared with the member capacities and the changes of the mechanical properties during the seismic event are described and discussed. In the light of the results obtained the observed failure patterns are explained. Some comments are stated concerning the adequacy of the numerical models that are usually used during the design phase for the seismic analysis.  相似文献   

Waste Gaseous Streams: From Environmental Issue to Source of Water by Using Membrane Condensers          下载免费PDF全文

Adele Brunetti  Sergio Santoro  Francesca Macedonio  Alberto Figoli  Enrico Drioli  Giuseppe Barbieri 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(8):1145-1153

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NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS CONTROLLING GULLY EROSION IN THEBASALTIC UPLAND OF SOUTHERN BRAZIL     

Ana C. VIERO Nilza M. dos Reis CASTRO Joel A. GOLDENFUM Alfonso RISSO 《国际泥沙研究》2005,20(3):211-223

This paper describes an analysis of natural and anthropogenic factors controlling the evolution of gullies in a rural basin in the basaltic upland in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil. In this region of deep ferrallitic soils with more than 60% clay, runoff and erosion are of increasing concern. In the TaboAo drainage basin （100 km^2）, gully erosion was studied in a field survey that measured rills and gullies. Eighty-four gullies were identified. They had an average length of 136 m, were 10 m wide, and 3 m deep and had a volume of 15.458 m3. Each gully was characterised in terms of factors that included slope, geological structure, presence of piping, drainage, soil use, and the presence of surface and subsurface flow. On average, the main channels had knickpoints varying from 2 m to 7 m, and their evolution in the vertical plane increased until bed-rock basalt material was reached, after which gullies increase in width and length. Gully development was also monitored from 1991 to 2003. Subsurface flow appears to be the principal agent controlling their development. Results show that both natural （slope, surface curvature, geological structure and rainfall） and anthropogenic （soil use, road construction） factors are important in gully development. The change in cultural practices throughout the drainage basin from conventional to direct seeding has led to increased subsurface flow, which was more important than surface runoff in causing erosion. However, the higher rainfall during E1 Nifio Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events and the consequently higher subsurface flow were the dominant factors. From 1991 to 2003 a total land loss of 1,013 m3 was observed in one gully, with 236 m^3 lost during the 1992 ENSO and 702 m3 during the 1997 ENSO; 95% of the total volume lost occurred during ENSO periods.  相似文献   

Secondary chaotic terrain formation in the higher outflow channels of southern circum-Chryse, Mars     

J. Alexis P. Rodríguez  Jeffrey S. Kargel  David A. Crown  Alberto G. Fairén  Victor R. Baker  Pat Candelaria 《Icarus》2011,213(1):150-194

Higher outflow channel dissection in the martian region of southern circum-Chryse appears to have extended from the Late Hesperian to the Middle Amazonian Epoch. These outflow channels were excavated within the upper 1 km of the cryolithosphere, where no liquid water is expected to have existed during these geologic epochs. In accordance with previous work, our examination of outflow channel floor morphologies suggests the upper crust excavated by the studied outflow channels consisted of a thin (a few tens of meters) layer of dry geologic materials overlying an indurated zone that extends to the bases of the investigated outflow channels (1 km in depth). We find that the floors of these outflow channels contain widespread secondary chaotic terrains (i.e., chaotic terrains produced by the destruction of channel-floor materials). These chaotic terrains occur within the full range of outflow channel dissection and tend to form clusters. Our examination of the geology of these chaotic terrains suggests that their formation did not result in the generation of floods. Nevertheless, despite their much smaller dimensions, these chaotic terrains are comprised of the same basic morphologic elements (e.g., mesas, knobs, and smooth deposits within scarp-bound depressions) as those located in the initiation zones of the outflow channels, which suggests that their formation must have involved the release of ground volatiles. We propose that these chaotic terrains developed not catastrophically but gradually and during multiple episodes of nested surface collapse. In order to explain the formation of secondary chaotic terrains within zones of outflow channel dissection, we propose that the regional Martian cryolithosphere contained widespread lenses of volatiles in liquid form. In this model, channel floor collapse and secondary chaotic terrain formation would have taken place as a consequence of instabilities arising during their exhumation by outflow channel dissection. Within relatively warm upper crustal materials in volcanic settings, or within highly saline crustal materials where cryopegs developed, lenses of volatiles in liquid form within the cryolithosphere could have formed, and/or remained stable.In addition, our numerical simulations suggest that low thermal conductivity, dry fine-grained porous geologic materials just a few tens of meters in thickness (e.g., dunes, sand sheets, some types of regolith materials), could have produced high thermal anomalies resulting in subsurface melting. The existence of a global layer of dry geologic materials overlying the cryolithosphere would suggest that widespread lenses of fluids existed (and may still exist) at shallow depths wherever these materials are fine-grained and porous. The surface ages of the investigated outflow channels and chaotic terrains span a full 500 to 700 Myr. Chaotic terrains similar in dimensions and morphology to secondary chaotic terrains are not observed conspicuously throughout the surface of Mars, suggesting that intra-cryolithospheric fluid lenses may form relatively stable systems. The existence of widespread groundwater lenses at shallow depths of burial has tremendous implications for exobiological studies and future human exploration. We find that the clear geomorphologic anomaly that the chaotic terrains and outflow channels of southern Chryse form within the Martian landscape could have been a consequence of large-scale resurfacing resulting from anomalously extensive subsurface melt in this region of the planet produced by high concentrations of salts within the regional upper crust. Crater count statistics reveal that secondary chaotic terrains and the outflow channels within which they occur have overlapping ages, suggesting that the instabilities leading to their formation rapidly dissipated, perhaps as the thickness of the cryolithosphere was reset following the disruption of the upper crustal thermal structure produced during outflow channel excavation.  相似文献   

A large sedimentary basin in the Terra Sirenum region of the southern highlands of Mars     

Alfonso F. Davila  Christoph Gross  Alberto G. Fairén  Thomas Kneissl  James M. Dohm 《Icarus》2011,212(2):579-589

Different lines of evidence point to hydrological cycling in the martian past. The extent, duration, and magnitude of this cycling remains unclear, as well as the magnitude of aqueous processes on the surface. Here, we provide geomorphic and mineralogic evidence of a large inter-crater sedimentary basin located in the Terra Sirenum region, which was once covered by a body of liquid water with an areal extent of at least 30,000 km² and a depth of approximately 200 m. The topographic basin, which is modified by a number of large impact craters, is partly controlled by ancient impact and tectonic structures. As a result of evaporation of the large body of water, salt flats formed in the lowest topographic reaches of the basin. Hydrated phyllosilicates occur in close proximity to the salt flats and in the ejecta and rim materials of small impact craters with stratigraphic relations that suggest that they underlie the evaporite deposits. Crater statistics place the maximum age of aqueous activity during the Late Noachian epoch. The relatively pristine mineral deposits in the basin have a high potential to yield information of the geochemistry and water activity during the ancient Noachian Period when conditions were seemingly more conducive to life.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the presence of major anionic surfactants in marine sediments     

Cantarero S  Camino-Sánchez FJ  Zafra-Gómez A  Ballesteros O  Navalón A  Vílchez JL  Verge C  Reis MS  Saraiva PM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(3):587-594

The contamination of aquatic environments has become the focus of increasing regulation and public concern due to their potential and unknown negative effects on the ecosystems. The present work develops a monitoring and statistical study, based on the analysis of variance test (ANOVA) and the multivariable analysis, both for insoluble soap and LAS in order to compare the behavior of different anionic surfactants in this environmental compartment. First, a novel and successfully validated methodology to analyze insoluble soap in these samples is developed. The matrix effect and the comparison of different extraction techniques were also performed. The optimized analytical methodologies were applied to 48 representative samples collected from the Almeria Coast (Spain) and then a statistical analysis to correlate anionic surfactant concentration and several variables associated with marine sediment samples was also developed. The results obtained showed relevant conclusions related to the environmental behavior of anionic surfactants in marine sediments.  相似文献   

A mass mortality of subtropical intertidal populations of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus: analysis of potential links with environmental conditions     

Dominique Girard  Sabrina Clemente  Kilian Toledo-Guedes  Alberto Brito  José Carlos Hernández 《Marine Ecology》2012,33(3):377-385

An outbreak of bald sea urchin disease was detected affecting intertidal populations of the edible temperate species Paracentrotus lividus at its southernmost geographical limit. The mortality event was detected in three sites (Güímar, Palmar and Alcalá) off Tenerife, Canary Islands (Northeastern Atlantic), in October 2003, coinciding with the highest sea surface temperatures (SST) and the lowest wave heights of the year. The prevalence of infection reached 100% but did not affect equally all studied sites or the different size classes. The disease was more prevalent in large sea urchins (>40 mm). The prevalence appeared to be positively correlated with the environmental variable SST and negatively correlated with wave height. In October 2004, only two infected urchins were found (prevalence 1%) at one of the studied sites. However, during 2004 no such extreme values of temperature and wave height were observed. We conclude that high SSTs and low wave heights such as those observed during 2003 are conditions that may trigger outbreaks of urchin disease.  相似文献   

Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment   总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9  

Alberto Carrara  Giovanni Crosta  Paolo Frattini   《Geomorphology》2008,94(3-4):353

Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment.  相似文献