Effect of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the variability of the Arctic Ocean freshwater export     

Alexandra Jahn  Bruno Tremblay  Lawrence A. Mysak  Robert Newton 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):201-222

Freshwater (FW) leaves the Arctic Ocean through sea-ice export and the outflow of low-salinity upper ocean water. Whereas the variability of the sea-ice export is known to be mainly caused by changes in the local wind and the thickness of the exported sea ice, the mechanisms that regulate the variability of the liquid FW export are still under investigation. To better understand these mechanisms, we present an analysis of the variability of the liquid FW export from the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950–2007, using a simulation from an energy and mass conserving global ocean–sea ice model, coupled to an Energy Moisture Balance Model of the atmosphere, and forced with daily winds from the NCEP reanalysis. Our results show that the simulated liquid FW exports through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and the Fram Strait lag changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Arctic by 1 and 6 years, respectively. The variability of the liquid FW exports is caused by changes in the cyclonicity of the atmospheric forcing, which cause a FW redistribution in the Arctic through changes in Ekman transport in the Beaufort Gyre. This in turn causes changes in the sea surface height (SSH) and salinity upstream of the CAA and Fram Strait, which affect the velocity and salinity of the outflow. The SSH changes induced by the large-scale atmospheric circulation are found to explain a large part of the variance of the liquid FW export, while the local wind plays a much smaller role. We also show that during periods of increased liquid FW export from the Arctic, the strength of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced and the ocean heat transport into the Arctic is increased. These results are particularly relevant in the context of global warming, as climate simulations predict an increase in the liquid FW export from the Arctic during the twenty-first century.  相似文献   

Effects of land cover change on the tropical circulation in a GCM   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Alexandra Karolina Jonko  Andreas Hense  Johannes Jan Feddema 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(4):635-649

Multivariate statistics are used to investigate sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric circulation to scenario-based global land cover change (LCC), with the largest changes occurring in the tropics. Three simulations performed with the fully coupled Parallel Climate Model (PCM) are compared: (1) a present day control run; (2) a simulation with present day land cover and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) projections; and (3) a simulation with SRES A2 land cover and GHG projections. Dimensionality of PCM data is reduced by projection onto a priori specified eigenvectors, consisting of Rossby and Kelvin waves produced by a linearized, reduced gravity model of the tropical circulation. A Hotelling T ² test is performed on projection amplitudes. Effects of LCC evaluated by this method are limited to diabatic heating. A statistically significant and recurrent signal is detected for 33% of all tests performed for various combinations of parameters. Taking into account uncertainties and limitations of the present methodology, this signal can be interpreted as a Rossby wave response to prescribed LCC. The Rossby waves are shallow, large-scale motions, trapped at the equator and most pronounced in boreal summer. Differences in mass and flow fields indicate a shift of the tropical Walker circulation patterns with an anomalous subsidence over tropical South America.  相似文献   

Fast data assimilation using a nonlinear Kalman filter and a model surrogate: An application to the Columbia River estuary   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Sergey Frolov  Antnio M. Baptista  Todd K. Leen  Zhegdong Lu  Rudolph van der Merwe 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2009,48(1-3):16

A fast and adjoint-free nonlinear data assimilation (DA) system was developed to simulate 3D baroclinic circulation in estuaries, leveraging two recently developed technologies: (1) a nonlinear model surrogate that executes forward simulation three orders of magnitude faster than a forward numerical circulation code and (2) a nonlinear extension to the reduced-dimension Kalman filter that estimates the state of the model surrogate. The noise sources in the Kalman filter were calibrated using empirical cross-validation and accounted for errors in model and model forcing.The DA system was applied to assimilate in situ measurements of water levels, salinities, and temperatures in simulations of the Columbia River estuary. To validate the DA results, we used a combination of cross-validation studies, process-oriented studies, and tests of statistical and dynamical consistency. The validation studies showed that DA improved the representation of several important processes in the estuary, including nonlinear tidal propagation, salinity intrusion, estuarine residual circulation, heat balance, and response of the estuary to coastal winds.  相似文献   

Snowpack variability across various spatio‐temporal resolutions          下载免费PDF全文

J. I. López‐Moreno  J. Revuelto  S. R. Fassnacht  C. Azorín‐Molina  S. M. Vicente‐Serrano  E. Morán‐Tejeda  G. A. Sexstone 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1213-1224

High‐resolution snow depth (SD) maps (1 × 1 m) obtained from terrestrial laser scanner measurements in a small catchment (0.55 km²) in the Pyrenees were used to assess small‐scale variability of the snowpack at the catchment and sub‐grid scales. The coefficients of variation are compared for various plot resolutions (5 × 5, 25 × 25, 49 × 49, and 99 × 99 m) and eight different days in two snow seasons (2011–2012 and 2012–2013). We also studied the relation between snow variability at the small scale and SD, topographic variables, small‐scale variability in topographic variables. The results showed that there was marked variability in SD, and it increased with increasing scales. Days of seasonal maximum snow accumulation showed the least small‐scale variability, but this increased sharply with the onset of melting. The coefficient of variation (CV) in snowpack depth showed statistically significant consistency amongst the various spatial resolutions studied, although it declined progressively with increasing difference between the grid sizes being compared. SD best explained the spatial distribution of sub‐grid variability. Topographic variables including slope, wind sheltering, sub‐grid variability in elevation, and potential incoming solar radiation were also significantly correlated with the CV of the snowpack, with the greatest correlation occurring at the 99 × 99 m resolution. At this resolution, stepwise multiple regression models explained more than 70% of the variance, whereas at the 25 × 25 m resolution they explained slightly more than 50%. The results highlight the importance of considering small‐scale variability of the SD for comprehensively representing the distribution of snowpack from available punctual information, and the potential for using SD and other predictors to design optimized surveys for acquiring distributed SD data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

SMOS‐derived soil moisture anomalies and drought indices: a comparative analysis using in situ measurements          下载免费PDF全文

Anna Scaini  Nilda Sánchez  Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano  José Martínez‐Fernández 《水文研究》2015,29(3):373-383

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Drainage network detection and assessment of network storage capacity in agrarian landscape     

Federico Cazorzi  Giancarlo Dalla Fontana  Alberto De Luca  Giulia Sofia  Paolo Tarolli 《水文研究》2013,27(4):541-553

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Seismic vulnerability and loss assessment of the Nepalese Pagoda temples     

Manjip Shakya  Humberto Varum  Romeu Vicente  Aníbal Costa 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2015,13(7):2197-2223

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Mid‐Holocene history of a central European lake: Lake Komořany,Czech Republic          下载免费PDF全文

Tomáš Bešta  Jan Novák  Dagmar Dreslerová  Vlasta Jankovská  Alexandra Bernardová  Lenka Lisá  Daniela Valentová 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(3):563-574

Palaeolimnological reconstruction of the aquatic environment in Lake Komo?any, based on sedimentology, geochemistry, and diatom and macrofossil analyses in the littoral part of the basin, reflects the mid‐Holocene history of the profile from its origin c. 9100 cal. a BP to its final transformation into an alder carr c. 4100 cal. a BP. The existence of the littoral zone can be best explained by increased precipitation during the studied interval. A stable diatom community, diatom‐inferred total phosphorus (50–80 μg L^?1) and pH (~7.6), along with stable concentrations of elements associated with changes in its watershed indicate a long‐lasting, balanced aquatic environment with no major shifts attributable to external factors, including climate change. From c. 4700 cal. BP, there started a transition to terrestrial conditions, caused by either natural infilling processes or decreased precipitation. Alternation of remarkable dry/wet phases was not detected, in contrast to numerous analogous central European and supraregional records. Potential human impact was revealed through increases of Corylus and Populus pollen in the Neolithic. These anthropogenic changes in the lake surroundings had no detectable influence on the lacustrine environment. The gathered data suggest undramatic, balanced mid‐Holocene environmental and climatic settings for this central European locality, in direct contrast to numerous analogous studies from the region emphasizing fluctuations and shifts found in the sediment record.  相似文献   

Modern sedimentation processes in a wave-dominated coastal embayment: Espírito Santo Bay,southeast Brazil     

Alex Cardoso Bastos  Daphnne Moraes Costa Moscon  Dannilo Carmo  José Antonio Baptista Neto  Valéria da Silva Quaresma 《Geo-Marine Letters》2015,35(1):23-36

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Cross-Calibrating Sunspot Magnetic Field Strength Measurements from the McMath–Pierce Solar Telescope and the Dunn Solar Telescope     

Fraser T. Watson  Christian Beck  Matthew J. Penn  Alexandra Tritschler  Valentín Martinez Pillet  William C. Livingston 《Solar physics》2015,290(11):3267-3277

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