The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say?   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Philippe Roudier  Benjamin SultanPhilippe Quirion  Alexis Berg 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):1073-1083

In West Africa, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields, and to analyze sources of uncertainty.Despite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from −50% to +90%, the median is a yield loss near −11%. This negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the Ricardian approach gives very contrasted results, even within a single study. The predicted impact is larger in northern West Africa (Sudano-Sahelian countries, −18% median response) than in southern West Africa (Guinean countries, −13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of West Africa. Moreover, negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies, with a median yield loss near −15% with most intense warming, highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation.The consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. However, rainfall changes, still uncertain in climate projections, have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. Finally, results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. This effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for C3 crops (e.g. soybean, cassava). As staple crops are mainly C4 (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum) in WA, this positive effect is less significant for the region.  相似文献   

Integrating land-cover data with different ontologies: identifying change from inconsistency     

Alexis Comber  Peter Fisher  Richard Wadsworth 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(7):691-708

Spatially coincident land-cover information frequently varies due to technological and political variations. This is especially problematic for time-series analyses. We present an approach using expert expressions of how the semantics of different datasets relate to integrating temporal time series land-cover information where the classification classes have fundamentally changed. We use land-cover mapping in the UK (LCMGB and LCM2000) as example data sets because of the extensive object-based meta-data in the LCM2000. Inconsistencies between the two datasets can arise from random, gross and systematic error and from an actual change in land cover. Locales of possible land-cover change are inferred by comparing characterizations derived from the semantic relations and meta-data. Field visits showed errors of omission to be 21% and errors of commission to be 28%, despite the accuracy limitations of the land-cover information when compared with the field survey component of the Countryside Survey 2000.  相似文献   

Modeling and imaging land-cover influences on air temperature in and near Baltimore,MD     

Gordon M. Heisler  Alexis Ellis  David J. Nowak  Ian Yesilonis 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,124(1-2):497-515

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Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model     

Jan T. M. Lenaerts  Miren Vizcaino  Jeremy Fyke  Leo van Kampenhout  Michiel R. van den Broeke 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(5-6):1367-1381

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Cenozoic evolution of the central Myanmar drainage system: insights from sediment provenance in the Minbu Sub‐Basin          下载免费PDF全文

Alexis Licht  Laurie Reisberg  Christian France‐Lanord  Aung Naing Soe  Jean‐Jacques Jaeger 《Basin Research》2016,28(2):237-251

Located at the southern edge of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, the Central Myanmar Basin (CMB) is divided into several Tertiary sub‐basins that have been almost continuously filled since the Indo‐Asia collision. They are currently drained by the Irrawaddy River, which flows down the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Sino‐Burman Ranges. Tracing sediment provenance from the CMB is thus critical for reconstructing the past denudation of the Himalayan‐Tibetan orogen; it is especially relevant since a popular drainage scenario involves the capture of the Tsangpo drainage system in Tibet by a precursor to the Irrawaddy River. Here, we document the provenance of sediment samples from the Minbu Sub‐Basin at the southern edge of the CMB, which is traversed by the modern stream of the Irrawaddy River. Samples ranging in age from middle Eocene to Pleistocene were investigated using Nd isotopes, trace element geochemistry and sandstone modal compositions. Our data provide no evidence of a dramatic provenance shift; however, sandstone petrography, trace element ratios and isotopic values display long‐term trends indicating a gradual decrease of the volcanic input and its replacement by a dominant supply from the Burmese basement. These trends are interpreted to reflect the progressive denudation of the Andean‐type volcanic arc that extended onto the Burmese margin, along the flank of the modern Sino‐Burman Ranges, where most of the post‐collisional deformation of central Myanmar is located. Though our results do not exclude an ephemeral or diluted contribution from a past Tsangpo‐Irrawaddy connection, sedimentation rates suggest that this hypothesis is unlikely before the development of a stable Tsangpo‐Brahmaputra River in the Miocene. These results thus suggest that the central Myanmar drainage basin has remained restricted to the Sino‐Burman Ranges since the beginning of the India‐Asia collision.  相似文献   

Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds have modulated the formation of laminations in sediments in Lago Fagnano (Tierra del Fuego,Argentina) over the past 6.3 ka     

Alexis Vizcaino  Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo  Robert B. Dunbar  David Mucciarone  Antonio García-Alix  Ina Neugebauer  Daniel Ariztegui 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2023,52(1):124-138

Tierra del Fuego in Argentina is a unique location to examine past Holocene wind variability since it intersects the core of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SHWW). The SHWW are the most powerful prevailing winds on Earth. Their variation plays a role in regulating atmospheric CO₂ levels and rainfall amounts and distribution, both today and in the past. We obtained a piston core (LF06-PC8) from Bahía Grande, a protected sub-basin at the southern margin of Lago Fagnano, the largest lake in Tierra del Fuego. This article focuses on the uppermost 185 cm of this core, corresponding to laminated sediment from the last ~6.3 ka. Laminations consist of millimetre-scale paired dark and light layers. Previous studies and new geochemical analysis show that the dark and light layers are characterized by differing concentrations of Mn and Fe. We attribute the distribution of Mn and Fe to episodic hypolimnic oxic–anoxic variations. The age model suggests an approximately bidecadal timescale for the formation of each layer pair. We propose a new model of these redox changes with the SHWW variations. The most likely phenomenon to produce complete water-column mixing is thermobaric instability, which occurs in colder winters with low-intensity SHWW (El Niño-like conditions). In contrast, windier winters are characterized by higher temperatures and reduced mixing in the water column, facilitating a decline in oxygen concentration. Laminations, and the inferred presence of periodic hypolimnion redox changes, are common features of the past ~6.3 ka. Geochemical proxy variability is compatible with an intensification of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity during the past ~2 ka.  相似文献   

ParCrunchFlow: an efficient,parallel reactive transport simulation tool for physically and chemically heterogeneous saturated subsurface environments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James J. Beisman  Reed M. Maxwell  Alexis K. Navarre-Sitchler  Carl I. Steefel  Sergi Molins 《Computational Geosciences》2015,19(2):403-422

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Erratum to: Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States     

David Mills  Russell Jones  Karen Carney  Alexis St. Juliana  Richard Ready  Allison Crimmins  Jeremy Martinich  Kate Shouse  Benjamin DeAngelo  Erwan Monier 《Climatic change》2015,131(1):179-181

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Seismic‐stratigraphic record of a deglaciation sequence: from the marine Laflamme Gulf to Lake Saint‐Jean (late Quaternary,Québec,Canada)     

Alexis Nutz  Jean‐François Ghienne  Mathieu Schuster  Raphaël Certain  Nicolas Robin  Claude Roquin  Olivier Raynal  Frédéric Bouchette  Philippe Duringer  Pierre A. Cousineau 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(2):309-329

The stratigraphy of the last deglaciation sequence is investigated in Lake Saint‐Jean (Québec Province, Canada) based on 300 km of echo‐sounder two dimensional seismic profiles. The sedimentary archive of this basin is documented from the Late Pleistocene Laurentidian ice‐front recession to the present‐day situation. Ten seismic units have been identified that reflect spatio‐temporal variations in depositional processes characterizing different periods of the Saint‐Jean basin evolution. During the postglacial marine flooding, a high deposition rate of mud settling, from proglacial glacimarine and then prodeltaic plumes in the Laflamme Gulf, produced an extensive, up to 50 m thick mud sheet draping the isostatically depressed marine basin floor. Subsequently, a closing of the water body due to glacio‐isostatic rebound occurred at 8.5 cal. ka BP, drastically modifying the hydrodynamics. Hyperpycnal flows appeared because fresh lake water replaced dense marine water. River sediments were transferred towards the deeper part of the lake into river‐related sediment drifts and confined lobes. The closing of the water body is also marked by the onset of a wind‐driven internal circulation associating coastal hydrodynamics and bottom currents with sedimentary features including shoreface deposits, sediment drifts and a prograding shelf‐type body. The fingerprints of a forced regression are well expressed by mouth‐bar systems and by the shoreface–shelf system, the latter unexpected in such a lacustrine setting. In both cases, a regressive surface of lacustrine erosion (RSLE) has been identified, separating sandy mouth‐bar from glaciomarine to prodeltaic muds, and sandy shoreface wedges from the heterolithic shelf‐type body, respectively. The Lake Saint‐Jean record is an example of a regressive succession driven by a glacio‐isostatic rebound and showing the transition from late‐glacial to post‐glacial depositional systems.  相似文献   

Forward: Modeling for Sustainability and Adaptation          下载免费PDF全文

Reed M. Maxwell  Alexis Navarre‐Sitchler  Matt Tonkin 《Ground water》2018,56(4):515-516

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