Correction to: Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment,Paraíba,Brazil     

da Silva  Richarde Marques  Santos  Celso Augusto Guimarães  Silva  Jorge Flávio Casé Braga da Costa  Silva  Alexandro Medeiros  Brasil Neto  Reginaldo Moura 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(2):1953-1954

Natural Hazards - The article “Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil”, written by da...  相似文献   

Prograded coastal barriers provide paleoenvironmental records of storms and sea level during late Quaternary highstands          下载免费PDF全文

Amy J. Dougherty 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(5):501-517

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Verification of tropical cyclone deposits with oxygen isotope analyses of coeval ostracod valves     

Chad S. Lane  Brooklyn Hildebrandt  Lisa M. Kennedy  Allison LeBlanc  Kam-Biu Liu  Amy J. Wagner  Andrea D. Hawkes 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2017,57(3):245-255

Reconstruction of prehistoric tropical cyclone (TC) activity often relies on the identification of distinctive overwash deposits (tempestites) in coastal lagoon sediments. Similar sediment deposits, however, can result from high-energy events other than TCs. In this study we assessed the utility of using the geochemistry of ostracod valves, specifically their stable oxygen isotope composition (δ¹⁸O), as a potential validation variable that could reduce the chances of misidentifying an overwash deposit as having been generated by a TC, when in fact it formed from another high-energy depositional process (type 1 error). We applied this technique to a sediment core recovered from Laguna Alejandro, Dominican Republic, which had already been analyzed for other sedimentary TC proxies. Negative δ¹⁸O anomalies identified in the ostracod valve stable isotope record are associated with TC deposits and are most easily explained by large influxes of ¹⁸O-depleted meteoric waters typical of intense tropical storms. There is potential for this technique to be used to identify TC landfalls that are not represented by overwash deposits. We, however, propose a more conservative approach and suggest this technique be used to validate the origin of a storm deposit and reduce the odds of a type 1 error.  相似文献   

Multiple Random Walk Simulation: A Fast Method to Map Grade Uncertainty with Large Datasets     

Rafael Moniz Caixeta  Diniz Tamantini Ribeiro  João Felipe Coimbra Leite Costa  Péricles Lopes Machado 《Natural Resources Research》2017,26(2):213-221

Multiple Random Walk Simulation consists of a methodology adapted to run fast simulations if close-spaced data are abundant (e.g., short-term mining models). Combining kriging with the simulation of random walks attempts to approximate traditional simulation algorithm results but at a computationally faster way when there is a large amount of conditioning samples. This paper presents this new algorithm illustrating the situations where the method can be used properly. A synthetic study case is presented in order to illustrate the Multiple Random Walk Simulation and to analyze the speed and goodness of its results against the ones from using Turning Bands Simulation and Sequential Gaussian Simulation.  相似文献   

Is LkHα 264 like a young, extremely active Sun?     

V. M. Costa  J. F. Gameiro  M. T. V. T. Lago 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,307(3):L23-L26

We combine calibrated International Ultraviolet Explorer ( IUE ) archive data and new low-resolution optical data for the T Tauri star LkH α 264 covering the region from 1200 to 7000 Å. The UV continuum is well fitted by the combination of a blackbody at 4300 K plus hydrogenic free–free and free–bound emission from a dense plasma at 3.5×10⁴ K plus the emission by a second blackbody. This last component is at T ≈8700 K and covers about 4 per cent of the stellar surface. We interpret this last component to be the result of emission from one or various hotspots. The interesting result is that this combined emission also fits the observed optical continuum well. We conclude that this star is an analogue of the Sun, however displaying a much higher level of activity.  相似文献   

Chemical Abundances of Newly Discovered Planetary Nebulae in the Galactic Bulge     

R.D.D. Costa  W.J. Maciel 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1999,265(1-4):327-329

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A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes          下载免费PDF全文

Amy E. East  Andrew W. Stevens  Andrew C. Ritchie  Patrick L. Barnard  Pamela Campbell‐Swarzenski  Brian D. Collins  Christopher H. Conaway 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(12):2562-2577

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

Reply to ‘Wolf‐triggered trophic cascades and stream channel dynamics in Olympic National Park: a comment on East et al. (2017)’ by Robert Beschta and William Ripple          下载免费PDF全文

Amy E. East  Kurt J. Jenkins  Patricia J. Happe  Jennifer A. Bountry  Timothy J. Beechie  Mark C. Mastin  Joel B. Sankey  Timothy J. Randle 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(4):936-939

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Bayesian posterior predictive return levels for environmental extremes     

Lee?FawcettEmail author  Amy?C.?Green 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(8):2233-2252

A key aim of most extreme value analyses is the estimation of the r-year return level; the wind speed, or sea-surge, or rainfall level (for example), we might expect to see once (on average) every r years. There are compelling arguments for working within the Bayesian setting here, not least the natural extension to prediction via the posterior predictive distribution. Indeed, for practitioners the posterior predictive return level has been cited as perhaps the most useful point summary from a Bayesian analysis of extremes, and yet little is known of the properties of this statistic. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of predictive return levels relative to their estimative counterparts obtained directly from the return level posterior distribution; in particular, we make comparisons with the return level posterior mean, mode and 95% credible upper bound. Differences between the predictive return level and standard summaries from the return level posterior distribution, for wind speed extremes observed in the UK, motivates this work. A large scale simulation study then reveals the superiority of the predictive return level over the other posterior summaries in many cases of practical interest.  相似文献   

Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage     

Catarina Costa  Rui Figueiredo  Vitor Silva  Paolo Bazzurro 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(12):1236-1255

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.  相似文献