River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Chantal Donnelly  Wei Yang  Joel Dahné 《Climatic change》2014,122(1-2):157-170

This study reports on new projections of discharge to the Baltic Sea given possible realisations of future climate and uncertainties regarding these projections. A high-resolution, pan-Baltic application of the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model was used to make transient simulations of discharge to the Baltic Sea for a mini-ensemble of climate projections representing two high emissions scenarios. The biases in precipitation and temperature adherent to climate models were adjusted using a Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) approach. As well as the climate projection uncertainty, this study considers uncertainties in the bias-correction and hydrological modelling. While the results indicate that the cumulative discharge to the Baltic Sea for 2071 to 2100, as compared to 1971 to 2000, is likely to increase, the uncertainties quantified from the hydrological model and the bias-correction method show that even with a state-of-the-art methodology, the combined uncertainties from the climate model, bias-correction and impact model make it difficult to draw conclusions about the magnitude of change. It is therefore urged that as well as climate model and scenario uncertainty, the uncertainties in the bias-correction methodology and the impact model are also taken into account when conducting climate change impact studies.  相似文献   

Aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons in coastal Caspian Sea sediments   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  

Tolosa I  de Mora S  Sheikholeslami MR  Villeneuve JP  Bartocci J  Cattini C 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,48(1-2):44-60

This investigation represents the first extensive study of the spatial distribution and sources of aliphatic (n-alkanes and unresolved complex mixture of fossil hydrocarbons) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in coastal sediments from the Caspian Sea. PAH concentrations, n-alkanes and biomarker profiles all suggested that there was limited petrogenic contamination in the shallow North Caspian Sea sediments, which are coarse with a low total organic carbon content. In contrast, moderate to high petrogenic contamination was found in the South Caspian Sea, in particular in the offshore oil fields near Baku, Azerbaijan. Contaminant patterns indicated that the PAHs were mainly from fossil sources, with higher contributions of pyrolytic only near industrialized and urban areas. A high contribution of perylene, a geochemically derived PAH, to the total PAHs was found in the west and south at sites influenced by the Kura, Safid Rud, Terek, Sulak and Samur Rivers.  相似文献   

Chlorinated hydrocarbons in marine biota and coastal sediments from the Gulf and Gulf of Oman     

de Mora S  Fowler SW  Tolosa I  Villeneuve JP  Cattini C 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(8):835-849

The spatial distribution of various organochlorinated compounds was investigated in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman based on marine biota (fish and various bivalves) and coastal sediment collected in Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during 2000-2001. Several potential organic contaminants from agricultural (e.g., DDT and its breakdown products, lindane, endrin, dieldrin, endosulfan) and industrial (PCBs) sources were measured. Sediment burdens for all compounds, even for an apparent hot spot near a refinery in Bahrain, were amongst the lowest reported for surface sediments from other seas. Concentrations of DDTs were low in the muscle and liver of all fish (orange spotted grouper and the spangled emperor) analysed. Similarly, the levels of chlorinated hydrocarbons were low in the various bivalve species, notably rock oysters and pearl oysters. These results contribute to the sparse regional database for organochlorinated compounds in the marine environment. Moreover, they can be used as the most recent end point for elucidating temporal trends. Whereas the levels, albeit relatively low, SigmaDDTs in the rock oysters from the Gulf of Oman have remained uniform, there has been an irregular but generally decreasing trend in concentrations of summation SigmaPCBs during the last two decades.  相似文献   

Donnees experimentales sur la diffusion des elements majeurs entre verres ou liquides de compositions basaltique,rhyolitique et phonolitique,entre 900°C et 1300°C,a pression ordinaire     

Chantal Alibert  Jean-Paul Carron 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1980,47(2):294-306

Diffusion coefficients for Si, Ti, Al, Na, K, Ca, Mg and Fe between pairs of glasses of basaltic, rhyolitic or phonolitic compositions have been determinated experimentally. This method involves the heating of coaxial cylinders of paired glasses under atmospheric conditions, over a range of temperatures from 900 to 1300°C, followed by microprobe analysis determination of the concentration gradients across the interface.The measured diffusivities are similar for all cations and range from 10^?13 cm²/s at 900°C to 5 × 10^?9 cm²/s at 1300°C. Depending mainly on the composition contrast, the diffusion is characterized by asymmetrical concentration profiles. This peculiar feature increases with temperature and chemical gradients across the contact surface of the glasses and leads to higher diffusion coefficients (D) in the more “basic” glass of a given pair. In the case of the rhyolite-basalt couple, this variation increases by a factor of about 10 at 1300°C. Diffusion dependence on temperature follows an Arrhenius equation which gives activation energies ranging from 65 to 85 kcal/mole. Assuming a constant and overall D for the two glasses we have attempted to apply our results to some geological examples such as exchanges between molten enclaves and liquids of contrasting composition.  相似文献   

Organochlorinated compounds in Caspian Sea sediments   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

de Mora S  Villeneuve JP  Sheikholeslami MR  Cattini C  Tolosa I 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,48(1-2):30-43

Several organochlorinated contaminants, including numerous pesticides, were determined in coastal sediments from the Caspian Sea. The most important contaminants were p,p'-DDT (up to 7400 pg g(-1)) and its breakdown products, p,p'-DDD (up to 3400 pg g(-1)) and p,p'-DDE (up to 1300 pg g(-1)). Although the contamination was most severe in Azerbaijan, the sediment concentrations and percentage distribution of the three DDT-related compounds indicated that such contamination constitutes a contemporary and ubiquitous problem in the Caspian Sea. Lindane represented the second most significant contaminant, particularly in the Russian Federation, with concentrations up to 609 pg g(-1). The concentrations of HCB and other chlorinated pesticides (cis- and trans-chlordane, methoxychlor, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide, aldrin, endrin, and endosulfans) were lower and not generally of concern, but the pesticides did demonstrate markedly different distributions reflecting differing agricultural usage in the region. The concentrations of Sigma PCBs were also quite low and ranged from 0.03 to 6.4 ng g(-1), with the highest amounts in the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan.  相似文献   

Apport d'informations qualitatives pour l'estimation des teneurs en milieux hétérogènes : cas d'une pollution de sols par des hydrocarbures aromatiques polycycliques (HAP)     

Nicolas Jeannée  Chantal de Fouquet 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2003,335(5):441-449

Grade estimates are often of weak precision in the case of heterogeneous media, due to their high variability, even at small scale. Qualitative information is then useful to improve the quality of the estimates, without prohibitive additional costs. How can we sample such variables, and detect the ones that are of interest for the estimation of grades? The general methodology is presented and then illustrated for the estimation of the benzo(a)pyren (a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, PAH) concentration in soils, sampled on a former coking plant. To cite this article: N. Jeannée, C. de Fouquet, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).To cite this article: N. Jeannée, C. de Fouquet, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).  相似文献   

Subsidence analysis on the Sardinian margin and the central Tyrrhenian Basin: Thermal modelling and heat flow control; deep structure implications     

Jean-Pierre Rehault  Chantal Tisseau  Marie-Franoise Brunet  Keith E Louden 《Journal of Geodynamics》1990,12(2-4)

The subsidence of the Tyrrhenian Basin is analysed based on numerous MCS reflection data and related seismic velocities, and calibrated using subsidence curves versus time at ODP Leg 107 sites 654 and 652 on the Sardinian margin. Two main phases of rifting are clearly defined for the margin-basin evolution: the first, beginning at 7 Ma, split the Sardinian-Calabrian margins, the second, beginning at 5 Ma formed the Central oceanic subbasins.Thermal models, based on thinned crust geometry from reflection-refraction data, are used which consider both vertical and horizontal conduction over time along a NW-SE transect across the entire Tyrrhenian Basin from Sardinia to Calabria. In general, there is a close agrrement between the predicted and the observed surface heat flow and the rate of subsidence over time. However, within the oceanic domain an initial subsidence must be chosen about 1000 m greater than observed on typical spreading centers, i.e., at about 3500 m as postulated in numerous back-arc basins.Thermal models, constrained by subsidence analysis and gravity observations, imply a large difference for the Moho depth beneath the Sardinian margin as determined after refraction seismic experiments. The upper mantle, hot but with high density, would be situated much higher than is postulated by seismic data and probably includes 7.3–7.4 km/s velocity layers previously interpreted as deep crustal layers.  相似文献   

How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Valentina Krysanova  Chantal Donnelly  Alexander Gelfan  Dieter Gerten  Berit Arheimer  Fred Hattermann 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(5):696-720

Two approaches can be distinguished in studies of climate change impacts on water resources when accounting for issues related to impact model performance: (1) using a multi-model ensemble disregarding model performance, and (2) using models after their evaluation and considering model performance. We discuss the implications of both approaches in terms of credibility of simulated hydrological indicators for climate change adaptation. For that, we discuss and confirm the hypothesis that a good performance of hydrological models in the historical period increases confidence in projected impacts under climate change, and decreases uncertainty of projections related to hydrological models. Based on this, we find the second approach more trustworthy and recommend using it for impact assessment, especially if results are intended to support adaptation strategies. Guidelines for evaluation of global- and basin-scale models in the historical period, as well as criteria for model rejection from an ensemble as an outlier, are also suggested.  相似文献   

Monitoring the effects of disposal of fine sediments from maintenance dredging on suspended particulate matter concentration in the Belgian nearshore area (southern North Sea)     

Fettweis M  Baeye M  Francken F  Lauwaert B  Van den Eynde D  Van Lancker V  Martens C  Michielsen T 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(2):258-269

The impact of continuous disposal of fine-grained sediments from maintenance dredging works on the suspended particulate matter concentration in a shallow nearshore turbidity maximum was investigated during dredging experiment (port of Zeebrugge, southern North Sea). Before, during and after the experiment monitoring of SPM concentration using OBS and ADV altimetry was carried out at a location 5 km west of the disposal site. A statistical analysis, based on the concept of populations and sub-sampling, was applied to evaluate the effect. The data revealed that the SPM concentration near the bed was on average more than two times higher during the dredging experiment. The disposed material was mainly transported in the benthic layer and resulted in a long-term increase of SPM concentration and formation of fluid mud layers. The study shows that SPM concentration can be used as an indicator of environmental changes if representative time series are available.  相似文献   

Laboratory Studies of Icy Regoliths in Relation to Observations of Minor Bodies in the Outer Solar System     

Levasseur-Regourd  A.Chantal 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2003,92(1-4):337-343

Observing the properties of solar lightscattered by TNOs is (up to now) the only way to obtain information on the physical properties of their surfaces. As such observations, performed near backscattering, become available, it is important to stress the significance of the phase angle and wavelength dependences of the linear polarization of the scattered light. At small phase angles, a narrow spike in brightness and a significantly negative polarization could be typical of icy regoliths, actually expected to be formed by alteration of icy bodies surfaces. Accurate experimental simulations of icyaggregates and regoliths formation that should take place with the ICAPS facility on board the ISS are presented, with emphasis on light scattering measurements providing a link between remote observations of TNOs and physical properties of their surfaces.  相似文献