Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes,Kona, Hawai‘i     

Chris?E.?GreggEmail author  Bruce?F.?Houghton  Douglas?Paton  Donald?A.?Swanson  David?M.?Johnston 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2004,66(6):531-540

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huallai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawaii (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawaii, eruptions of neighboring Klauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Klauea.The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huallai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding.Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of peoples knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work.The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.  相似文献   

Entanglement of New Zealand fur seals in man-made debris at Kaikoura, New Zealand     

Boren LJ  Morrissey M  Muller CG  Gemmell NJ 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(4):442-446

New Zealand fur seals in the Kaikoura region breed near a town with expanding tourist and fishing industries and commonly come ashore entangled in nets and plastic debris. However, the rate at which entanglement occurs was previously unknown. A decade of Department of Conservation seal callout data was analysed to determine the level of entanglement in the region and the most common debris type. Monitoring of adult female fur seals released from entanglement provided information on the potential for serious wounds to heal and survivorship of released individuals. Entanglement rates of pinnipeds in Kaikoura are some of the highest reported world-wide (average range: 0.6-2.8%) with green trawl net (42%), and plastic strapping tape (31%) together contributing the most to debris types. Nearly half of the reported entangled seals are successfully released (43%) and post-release monitoring shows that with appropriate intervention the chance of an individual surviving even with a significant entanglement wound is high. Our study demonstrates that while entanglement in the region is high, a successful intervention protocol may help reduce the potential for entanglement-related mortality in the region.  相似文献   

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA     

Carlson CH  Dobrowski SZ  Safford HD 《Carbon balance and management》2012,7(1):7-17

Background

Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration.

Results

We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10?C35?years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high.

Conclusions

Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks.  相似文献   

Well-being and environmental change in the arctic: a synthesis of selected research from Canada’s International Polar Year program     

Brenda Parlee  Chris Furgal 《Climatic change》2012,115(1):13-34

The social and cultural dimensions of arctic environmental change were explored through Canada??s International Polar Year (IPY) research program. Drawing on concepts of vulnerability, resilience and human security, we discuss preliminary results of 15 IPY research projects (of 52) which dealt with the effects and responses of northern communities to issues of ecological variability, natural resource development and climate change. This paper attempts to determine whether the preliminary results of these projects have contributed to the IPY program goal of building knowledge about well-being in the arctic. The projects were diverse in focus and approach but together offer a valuable pan-northern perspective on many themes including land and resource use, food security, poverty and best practices of northern engagement. Case study research using self-reported measures suggests individual views of their own well-being differ from regional and territorial standardized statistics on quality of life. A large body of work was developed around changes in land and resource use. A decline in land and resource use in some areas and consequent concerns for food security, are directly linked to the effects of climate change, particularly in coastal areas where melting sea ice, erratic weather events and changes in the stability of landscapes (e.g., erosion, slumping) are leading to increased risks for land users. Natural resource development, while creating some new economic opportunities, may be compounding rather than offsetting such stresses of environmental change for vulnerable populations. While the IPY program has contributed to our understanding of some aspects of well-being in the arctic, many other issues of social, economic, cultural and political significance, including those unrelated to environmental change, remain poorly understood.  相似文献   

Non-uniform interhemispheric temperature trends over the past 550 years   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Richard P. Duncan  Pavla Fenwick  Jonathan G. Palmer  Matt S. McGlone  Chris S. M. Turney 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(7-8):1429-1438

The warming trend over the last century in the northern hemisphere (NH) was interrupted by cooling from ad 1940 to 1975, a period during which the southern hemisphere experienced pronounced warming. The cause of these departures from steady warming at multidecadal timescales are unclear; the prevailing explanation is that they are driven by non-uniformity in external forcings but recent models suggest internal climate drivers may play a key role. Paleoclimate datasets can help provide a long-term perspective. Here we use tree-rings to reconstruct New Zealand mean annual temperature over the last 550 years and demonstrate that this has frequently cycled out-of-phase with NH mean annual temperature at a periodicity of around 30–60 years. Hence, observed multidecadal fluctuations around the recent warming trend have precedents in the past, strongly implicating natural climate variation as their cause. We consider the implications of these changes in understanding and modelling future climate change.  相似文献   

Vulnerability of Aboriginal health systems in Canada to climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James D. Ford  Lea Berrang-Ford  Malcolm King  Chris Furgal   《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(4):668-680

Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper we systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio-economic and health inequality are addressed.  相似文献   

The WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey: small-scale clustering of Lyman-break galaxies at z < 1     

Chris Blake  Russell J. Jurek  Sarah Brough  Matthew Colless  Warrick Couch  Scott Croom  Tamara Davis  Michael J. Drinkwater  Duncan Forbes  Karl Glazebrook  Barry Madore  Chris Martin  Kevin Pimbblet  Gregory B. Poole  Michael Pracy  Rob Sharp  Todd Small  David Woods 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(1):240-254

  相似文献   

Multiple regression of GRB luminosity on light-curve properties     

Chris Koen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(3):1499-1506

Statistical relations between the luminosity L of gamma-ray burster (GRBs) and several of their other observable properties have been discovered. Four of these properties are considered here: the spectral lag; a measure of the light-curve variability; peak energy and the minimum light-curve rise time. Data are taken from a tabulation by Schaefer. Log–log regression of L on various combinations of the four light-curve properties, as well as redshift, is considered, using conventional multiple linear regression, and multiple errors-in-variables regression. Several cases are found in which the regression coefficients of more than one luminosity indicators are significant. In particular, the simultaneous regression of luminosity on peak energy, spectral lag, minimum rise time and redshift is meaningful.  相似文献   

Optical and near-infrared colours as a discriminant of the age and metallicity of stellar populations     

David Carter  Daniel J. B. Smith  Susan M. Percival  Ivan K. Baldry  Christopher A. Collins  Philip A. James  Maurizio Salaris  Chris Simpson  John P. Stott  Bahram Mobasher 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,397(2):695-708

We present a comprehensive analysis of the ability of current stellar population models to reproduce the optical ( ugriz ) and near-infrared ( JHK ) colours of a small sample of well-studied nearby elliptical and S0 galaxies. We find broad agreement between the ages and metallicities derived using different population models, although different models show different systematic deviations from the measured broad-band fluxes. Although it is possible to constrain simple stellar population models to a well-defined area in age–metallicity space, there is a clear degeneracy between these parameters even with such a full range of precise colours. The precision to which age and metallicity can be determined independently, using only broad-band photometry with realistic errors, is  Δ[Fe/H]≃ 0.18  and  Δlog Age ≃ 0.25  . To constrain the populations and therefore the star formation history further, it will be necessary to combine broad-band optical–IR photometry with either spectral line indices, or else photometry at wavelengths outside this range.  相似文献   

西藏恰功铁矿岩浆演化序列及斑岩出溶流体特征   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

谢玉玲  李应栩  Zhaoshan CHANG  David R. COOKE  Chris G. RYAN  Jamie LAIRD  白劲松  刘云飞  李光明  张丽 《地质学报》2009,83(12):1869-1886

冈底斯成矿带是碰撞造山过程形成的最重要的成矿带,恰功矽卡岩铁(铜)矿床即位于冈底斯成矿带中部.本文在详细的野外地质填图和室内研究基础上确定了恰功铁矿与成矿有关的斑岩体为二长花岗斑岩,锆石的U-Pb定年结果为68.8±2.2 Ma,明显早于冈底斯东部与后碰撞伸展有关的斑岩型矿床和主碰撞期形成的矽卡岩型矿床,其应代表了冈底斯一次尚未被充分认识到的成矿事件.通过对成矿斑岩的岩石学、岩石化学、岩浆出溶流体的包裹体岩相学、显微测温分析及包裹体成分的LRM、LA-ICP-MS和PIXE分析,本文探讨了与该矽卡岩矿床有关的斑岩的岩浆起源、斑岩侵位机制及出溶流体特征.结果表明,成矿斑岩为矿区最早的侵入岩单元,具有壳幔源混源特征,其常量元素组成与冈底斯东部斑岩铜矿带的埃达克质岩相近,但稀土和微量元素组成与东部斑岩明显不同,为地幔物质上涌并诱发角闪岩相下地壳熔融的产物,岩体侵位深度大(>7 km)、剥蚀程度高.早期岩浆出溶的流体为高温、高压、高盐度流体,其中富含Fe、Pb、Zn、Cu等成矿金属,与世界其他斑岩铜矿床相比,相对富铁、铅而贫铜.流体的沸腾作用发生于钾硅化阶段,形成了一套富气、高盐、高固相和气液包裹体组合,不同于早期出溶流体的包裹体组合.从岩浆起源和出溶流体性质可以看出,该斑岩具有形成与斑岩有关的铁铅多金属矿床的成矿潜力,但从该矿区地表出露的蚀变和包裹体测压结果可以看出,该斑岩体目前剥蚀深度较大,对斑岩型矿床保存不利,对该斑岩体及与成矿关系的认识对理解该区内的矿床成因和指导区域找矿具有重要的指示意义.  相似文献