Reducing uncertainty in stochastic streamflow generation and reservoir sizing by combining observed,reconstructed and projected streamflow     

Jason?PatskoskiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  A.?Sankarasubramanian 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):1065-1083

Reservoir sizing is one of the most important aspects of water resources engineering as the storage in a reservoir must be sufficient to supply water during extended droughts. Typically, observed streamflow is used to stochastically generate multiple realizations of streamflow to estimate the required storage based on the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SQP). The main limitation in this approach is that the parameters of the stochastic model are purely derived from the observed record (limited to less than 80 years of data) which does not have information related to prehistoric droughts. Further, reservoir sizing is typically estimated to meet future increase in water demand, and there is no guarantee that future streamflow over the planning period will be representative of past streamflow records. In this context, reconstructed streamflow records, usually estimated based on tree ring chronologies, provide better estimates of prehistoric droughts, and future streamflow records over the planning period could be obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) which provide 30 year near-term climate change projections. In this study, we developed paleo streamflow records and future streamflow records for 30 years are obtained by forcing the projected precipitation and temperature from the GCMs over a lumped watershed model. We propose combining observed, reconstructed and projected streamflows to generate synthetic streamflow records using a Bayesian framework that provides the posterior distribution of reservoir storage estimates. The performance of the Bayesian framework is compared to a traditional stochastic streamflow generation approach. Findings based on the split-sample validation show that the Bayesian approach yielded generated streamflow traces more representative of future streamflow conditions than the traditional stochastic approach thereby, reducing uncertainty on storage estimates corresponding to higher reliabilities. Potential strategies for improving future streamflow projections and its utility in reservoir sizing and capacity expansion projects are also discussed.  相似文献   

Low‐P and high‐T metamorphism of basalts: Insights from the Sudbury impact melt sheet aureole and thermodynamic modelling     

Taus R. C. Jrgensen  Douglas K. Tinkham  C. Michael Lesher 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2019,37(2):271-313

Low‐pressure and high‐temperature (LP–HT) metamorphism of basaltic rocks, which occurs globally and throughout geological time, is rarely constrained by forward phase equilibrium modelling, yet such calculations provide valuable supplementary thermometric information and constraints on anatexis that are not possible to obtain from conventional thermometry. Metabasalts along the southern margin of the Sudbury Igneous Complex (SIC) record evidence of high‐grade contact metamorphism involving partial melting and melt segregation. Peak metamorphic temperatures reached at least ~925°C at ~1–3 kbar near the SIC contact. Preservation of the peak mineral assemblage indicates that most of the generated melt escaped from these rocks leaving a residuum characterized by a plagioclase–orthopyroxene–clinopyroxene–ilmenite‐magnetite±melt assemblage. Peak temperatures reached ~875°C up to 500 m from the SIC lower contact, which marks the transition to metabasalts that only experienced incipient partial melting without melt loss. Metabasalts ~500 to 750 m from the SIC contact are characterized by a similar two‐pyroxene mineral assemblage, but typically contain abundant hornblende that overgrew clino‐ and orthopyroxene along an isobaric cooling path. Metabasalts ~750 to 1,000 m from the SIC contact are characterized by a hornblende–plagioclase–quartz–ilmenite assemblage indicating temperatures up to ~680°C. Mass balance and phase equilibria calculations indicate that anatexis resulted in 10–20% melt generation in the inner ~500 m of the aureole, with even higher degrees of melting towards the contact. Comparison of multiple models, experiments, and natural samples indicates that modelling in the Na₂O–CaO–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–O₂ (NCFMASHTO) system results in the most reliable predictions for the temperature of the solidus. Incorporation of K₂O in the most recent amphibole solution model now successfully predicts dehydration melting by the coexistence of high‐Ca amphibole and silicate melt at relatively low pressures (~1.5 kbar). However, inclusion of K₂O as a system component results in prediction of the solidus at too low a temperature. Although there are discrepancies between modelling predictions and experimental results, this study demonstrates that the pseudosection approach to mafic rocks is an invaluable tool to constrain metamorphic processes at LP–HT conditions.  相似文献   

Integrated UAS and LiDAR reveals the importance of land cover and flood magnitude on the formation of incipient chute holes and chute cutoff development     

Quinn W. Lewis  Douglas A. Edmonds  Brian J. Yanites 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1441-1455

Meandering river sinuosity increases until the channel erodes into itself (neck cutoff) or forms a new channel over the floodplain (chute cutoff) and sinuosity is reduced. Unlike neck cutoff, which can be measured or modelled without considering overbank processes, chute cutoff must be at least partially controlled by channel-forming processes on the floodplain. Even though chute cutoff controls meandering river form, the processes that cause chute cutoff are not well understood. This study analyses the morphology of two incipient chute cutoffs along the East Fork White River, Indiana, USA, using high temporal and spatial resolution UAS-based LiDAR and aerial photography. LiDAR and aerial imagery obtained between 1998 and 2019 reveals that large scour holes formed in the centre of both chutes sometime after chute channel initiation. A larger analysis within the study watershed reveals that scour holes within incipient chutes can be stable or unstable, and tend to stabilize when the chute is colonized by native vegetation and forest. When the scour holes form in farmed floodplain, they enlarge rapidly after initial formation and contribute to complete chute cutoff. In addition, this study shows that the formation of scour holes can occur in response to common, relatively low-magnitude floods and that the amount of incipient chute erosion does not depend on peak flood magnitude. The role of scour holes in enlarging chute channels could be an important mechanism for chute channel evolution in meandering rivers. This study also confirms that understanding the relationships among flow, land cover, and cutoff morphology is substantially improved with on-demand remote sensing techniques like integrated UAS and LiDAR. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Enhancing Microbial Sulfate Reduction of Hydrocarbons in Groundwater Using Permeable Filled Borings     

Timothy Buscheck  Douglas Mackay  Charles Paradis  Radomir Schmidt  Nicholas de Sieyes 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2019,39(3):48-60

At a service station closed in 1993, groundwater contained benzene that persisted above the cleanup goal of 1 mg/L in zones depleted of background sulfate. The benzene and other petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs) were present as much as 36 feet (11 m) below the water table and therefore remediation of a thick saturated zone interval was required. Microcosms using site sediments demonstrated that anaerobic benzene biodegradation occurred only if sulfate was added, suggesting sulfate addition as a remediation approach. Twenty-four boreholes (9.1″ diameter and 56′ deep) were drilled around four monitoring wells, in which benzene concentrations exceeded 1 mg/L. The boreholes were backfilled with a mixture of gravel and 15,000 pounds of gypsum (which releases sulfate as it dissolves) to create “Permeable Filled Borings” (PFBs). Concurrently, nine high pressure injections (HPIs) of gypsum slurry were conducted in other site locations (312 pounds of gypsum total). PFBs were expected to release sulfate for up to 20 years, whereas HPIs were expected to produce a short-lived plume of sulfate. Concentrations of benzene and sulfate in groundwater were monitored over a 3-year period in six monitoring wells. In two wells near PFBs, benzene concentrations dropped below the cleanup goal by two to three orders of magnitude; in one well, sulfate concentrations exceeded 500 mg/L for the most recent 18 months. Benzene concentrations in two other PFB monitoring wells declined by a factor of 2 to 4, but remained above 1 mg/L, presumably due to high-dissolved PHC concentrations and possibly greater residual PHC mass in adjacent sediments, and therefore greater sulfate demand. However, hydrogen and sulfur isotopic enrichment in benzene and sulfate, respectively, confirmed biodegradation of benzene and stimulation of sulfate-reducing conditions. Thus, it is hypothesized that the PHC mass in adjacent sediments will decline over time, as will dissolved PHC concentrations, and eventually benzene concentrations will decrease below the cleanup goal. Benzene in two HPI monitoring wells was below the cleanup goal for all but one sampling event before HPIs were conducted and remained below the cleanup goal after HPIs; there was no stimulation of sulfate-reducing conditions. It is concluded that sulfate released from PFBs contributed to declining benzene concentrations.  相似文献   

Characterization of Frequency and Aggregation of the Antarctic Krill (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Euphausia superba</Emphasis>) Using Acoustics     

Seok-Gwan?Choi  Eun-A?Yoon  Doo-Hae?An  Sangdeuk?Chung  Jaebong?Lee  Kyounghoon?LeeEmail author 《Ocean Science Journal》2018,53(4):667-677

In this study, the dB difference and characteristics of krill swarms inhabiting Subarea 48.1, which includes the west and south of the South Shetland Island and the Elephant Island peripheries, were estimated to distinguish Antarctic krill, using acoustics. From April 13 to 24, 2016, acoustic data were collected along 24 survey lines using the frequencies 38 and 120 kHz, and middle trawling was performed at 7 stations. Using the difference between the dB values of two volume backscattering strength (Sv) frequencies (38 and 120 kHz), a clear acoustic distinction could be made between Antarctic krill (4.9 to 12.0 dB) and fish (?4.0 to ?0.2 dB). The distributions and mean Sv of krill swarms in the Elephant Island peripheries and south of South Shetland Island were higher than those in the west of South Shetland Island. The mean length/ height ratio of krill swarms in the west of the South Shetland Island (64.5) was higher than that in the south (35.9) and the Elephant Island peripheries (33.8), with the length of the aggregations exceeding their height. Most krill swarms were distributed between the surface layer (less than 10 m below sea level) and within 200 m of water depth. These results are expected to serve as baseline data for evaluating krill density and biomass by distinguishing them from fish, using acoustics.  相似文献   

Assessing conservation practices in Amalacaxco Gorge (Izta-Popo National Park,Central Mexico) using fallout ~(137)Cs and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL)     

MU?OZ-SALINAS E  CASTILLO M 《山地科学学报》2018,(3)

This study aims to assess conservation practices in Izta-Popo National Park(Central Mexico) by evaluating the mechanisms of sediment transfer. We applied a methodology based on fallout ~(137)Cs and optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) analysis. This was tested in the upper catchment of Amalacaxco Gorge, selected for being one of the sectors of the park in which man-made actions have been implemented in last decades to favor forest growth in the alpine grassland and to reduce the effect of water runoff. We quantified the ~(137)Cs activity using gamma and beta spectrometry of fine sediment grains extracted from the surface of parcels of 0.4 m2 in areas of natural forest, natural alpine grassland, alpine grassland with conservation practices, ravines and trails. In general, ~(137)Cs values increases as local slope decreases as it was expected. The natural forest is the most stable area in terms of soil erosion and sediment accumulation and, mean ~(137)Cs activity was taken as reference to assess cumulative zones, with higher ~(137)Cs values and erosive, with lower. We found that trails are accumulative surfaces but in other areas, erosion predominates. Man-made ditches, trenches and afforestation in the alpine grassland have higher ~(137)Cs values than thenatural grassland, which indicates that conservation practices are limiting the sediment transfer from hillslopes to channels, however, soil retention is less than in the natural grassland. Additionally, we evaluated the luminescence(OSL) values obtained from samples extracted from the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into different sectors of the study area to assess the grade of resetting of fluvial materials. These luminescence results indicated that the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into the natural forest and alpine grassland is bleached more efficiently than the sediment transported in the alpine grassland with conservation practices. Results of fallout ~(137)Cs and luminescence strongly suggest that man-made actions in this part of the Izta-Popo National Park are dramatically modifying the natural mechanisms of sediment transfer and favoring soil erosion. We conclude that made ditches, trenches and afforestation are not an effective conservation practice in Amalacaxco Gorge because they are promoting soil erosion instead of reducing it.  相似文献   

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲优质储集层预测          下载免费PDF全文

桑林翔  刘军  王贵文  王苏天  李全  张云龙 《古地理学报》2020,22(6):1053-1064

针对准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡风南地区三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲砂岩物性空间变化大、优质储集层(孔隙度大于7.4%,渗透率大于0.05×10^-3μm²)预测难的问题,在沉积岩石学、地震沉积学以及地震反演和解释理论指导下,综合利用测井、岩心和三维地震等资料开展了高精度层序地层划分、沉积微相描述和优质储集层地震反演研究。建立了风南井区四级层序地层格架,明确了扇三角洲多期水进水退的充填过程,指出SSQ3和SSQ5是优质储集层的发育层系;识别出扇三角洲平原分流河道、河道间和扇三角洲前缘水下分流水道、河口坝、席状砂等沉积微相,指出扇三角洲平原是优质储集层发育相带;通过应用高分辨层序地层纵向边界和沉积相横向边界约束,进行分层相控叠后地震波阻抗反演,提升储集层预测精度,在SSQ3和SSQ5预测5个优质储集层发育区,提出3口井的井位建议,钻探均获工业油流。  相似文献   

Analysis of seafloor backscatter strength dependence on the survey azimuth using multibeam echosounder data     

Xavier?LurtonEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Dimitrios?Eleftherakis  Jean-Marie?Augustin 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2018,39(1-2):183-203

The sediment backscatter strength measured by multibeam echosounders is a key feature for seafloor mapping either qualitative (image mosaics) or quantitative (extraction of classifying features). An important phenomenon, often underestimated, is the dependence of the backscatter level on the azimuth angle imposed by the survey line directions: strong level differences at varying azimuth can be observed in case of organized roughness of the seabed, usually caused by tide currents over sandy sediments. This paper presents a number of experimental results obtained from shallow-water cruises using a 300-kHz multibeam echosounder and specially dedicated to the study of this azimuthal effect, with a specific configuration of the survey strategy involving a systematic coverage of reference areas following “compass rose” patterns. The results show for some areas a very strong dependence of the backscatter level, up to about 10-dB differences at intermediate oblique angles, although the presence of these ripples cannot be observed directly—neither from the bathymetry data nor from the sonar image, due to the insufficient resolution capability of the sonar. An elementary modeling of backscattering from rippled interfaces explains and comforts these observations. The consequences of this backscatter dependence upon survey azimuth on the current strategies of backscatter data acquisition and exploitation are discussed.  相似文献   

Stream channel erosion in a rapidly urbanizing region of the US–Mexico border: documenting the importance of channel hardpoints with Structure‐from‐Motion photogrammetry          下载免费PDF全文

Kristine T. Taniguchi  Trent W. Biggs  Eddy J. Langendoen  Carlos Castillo  Napoleon Gudino‐Elizondo  Yongping Yuan  Douglas Liden 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(7):1465-1477

Urbanization can lead to accelerated stream channel erosion, especially in areas experiencing rapid population growth, unregulated urban development on erodible soils, and variable enforcement of environmental regulations. A combination of field surveys and Structure‐from‐Motion (SfM) photogrammetry techniques was used to document spatial patterns in stream channel geometry in a rapidly urbanizing watershed, Los Laureles Canyon (LLCW), in Tijuana, Mexico. Ground‐based SfM photogrammetry was used to map channel dimensions with 1 to 2 cm vertical mean error for four stream reaches (100–300 m long) that were highly variable and difficult to survey with a differential GPS. Regional channel geometry curves for LLCW had statistically larger slopes and intercepts compared with regional curves developed for comparable, undisturbed reference channels. Cross‐sectional areas of channels downstream of hardpoints, such as concrete reaches or culverts, were up to 64 times greater than reference channels, with enlargement persisting, in some cases, up to 230 m downstream. Percentage impervious cover was not a good predictor of channel enlargement. Proximity to upstream hardpoint, and lack of riparian and bank vegetation paired with highly erodible bed and bank materials may account for the instability of the highly enlarged and unstable cross‐sections. Channel erosion due to urbanization accounts for approximately 25–40% of the total sediment budget for the watershed, and channel erosion downstream of hardpoints accounts for one‐third of all channel erosion. Channels downstream of hardpoints should be stabilized to prevent increased inputs of sediment to the Tijuana Estuary and local hazards near the structures, especially in areas with urban settlements near the stream channel. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sediment routing in the Zagros foreland basin: Drainage reorganization and a shift from axial to transverse sediment dispersal in the Kurdistan region of Iraq     

Renas I. Koshnaw  Brian K. Horton  Daniel F. Stockli  Douglas E. Barber  Mazin Y. Tamar-Agha 《Basin Research》2020,32(4):688-715

In the northwestern sector of the Zagros foreland basin, axial fluvial systems initially delivered fine-grained sediments from northwestern source regions into a contiguous basin, and later transverse fluvial systems delivered coarse-grained sediments from northeastern sources into a structurally partitioned basin by fold-thrust deformation. Here we integrate sedimentologic, stratigraphic, palaeomagnetic and geochronologic data from the northwestern Zagros foreland basin to define the Neogene history of deposition and sediment routing in response to progressive advance of the Zagros fold-thrust belt. This study constrains the depositional environments, timing of deposition and provenance of nonmarine clastic deposits of the Injana (Upper Fars), Mukdadiya (Lower Bakhtiari) and Bai-Hasan (Upper Bakhtiari) Formations in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Sediments of the Injana Formation (~12.4–7.75 Ma) were transported axially (orogen-parallel) from northwest to southeast by meandering and low-sinuosity channel belt system. In contrast, during deposition of the Mukdadiya Formation (~7.75–5 Ma), sediments were delivered transversely (orogen-perpendicular) from northeast to southwest by braided and low-sinuosity channel belt system in distributive fluvial megafans. By ~5 Ma, the northwestern Zagros foreland basin became partitioned by growth of the Mountain Front Flexure and considerable gravel was introduced in localized alluvial fans derived from growing topographic highs. Foredeep accumulation rates during deposition of the Injana, Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations averaged 350, 400 and 600 m/Myr respectively, suggesting accelerated accommodation generation in a rapidly subsiding basin governed by flexural subsidence. Detrital zircon U-Pb age spectra show that in addition to sources of Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover strata, the Injana Formation was derived chiefly from Palaeozoic-Precambrian (including Carboniferous and latest Neoproterozoic) strata in an axial position to the northwest, likely from the Bitlis-Puturge Massif and broader Eastern Anatolia. In contrast, the Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations yield distinctive Palaeogene U-Pb age peaks, particularly in the southeastern sector of the study region, consistent with transverse delivery from the arc-related terranes of the Walash and Naopurdan volcano-sedimentary groups (Gaveh-Rud domain?) and Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc to the northeast. These temporal and spatial variations in stratigraphic framework, depositional environments, sediment routing and compositional provenance reveal a major drainage reorganization during Neogene shortening in the Zagros fold-thrust belt. Whereas axial fluvial systems initially dominated the foreland basin during early orogenesis in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, transverse fluvial systems were subsequently established and delivered major sediment volumes to the foreland as a consequence of the abrupt deformation advance and associated topographic growth in the Zagros.  相似文献