A forecast error correction method in numerical weather prediction by using recent multiple-time evolution data     

薛海乐  沈学顺  丑纪范 《大气科学进展》2013,30(5):1249-1259

The initial value error and the imperfect numerical model are usually considered as error sources of numerical weather prediction (NWP). By using past multi-time observations and model output, this study proposes a method to estimate imperfect numerical model error. This method can be inversely estimated through expressing the model error as a Lagrange interpolation polynomial, while the coefficients of polynomial are determined by past model performance. However, for practical application in the full NWP model, it is necessary to determine the following criteria: (1) the length of past data sufficient for estimation of the model errors, (2) a proper method of estimating the term "model integration with the exact solution" when solving the inverse problem, and (3) the extent to which this scheme is sensitive to the observational errors. In this study, such issues are resolved using a simple linear model, and an advection-diffusion model is applied to discuss the sensitivity of the method to an artificial error source. The results indicate that the forecast errors can be largely reduced using the proposed method if the proper length of past data is chosen. To address the three problems, it is determined that (1) a few data limited by the order of the corrector can be used, (2) trapezoidal approximation can be employed to estimate the "term" in this study; however, a more accurate method should be explored for an operational NWP model, and (3) the correction is sensitive to observational error.  相似文献   

Delayed Seasonal Transition of Tropical Wave Activity in the CMIP3 Global Climate Models          下载免费PDF全文

HUANG Ping  Chia CHOU  Chia-Hui CHUNG  HUANG Rong-Hui 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,6(1):33-38

This study evaluates the seasonal cycle of the activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves(CCEWs),including mixed Rossby-gravity(MRG) and tropical depression-type(TD-type) waves,based on the twentieth century experiments of 18 global climate models(GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP3).The ensemble result of the 18 GCMs shows that the observed seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity cannot be well reproduced.The seasonal transition of wave activity from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere is delayed from April in the observations to May in the simulations,indicating that the simulated active season of tropical waves in the northern hemisphere is delayed and shortened.This delayed seasonal transition of tropical wave activity is associated with a delayed seasonal transition of simulated mean precipitation.The mean precipitation in April and May shows a double-ITCZ problem,and the horizontal resolution is important to the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity.Because of the coincident seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity and tropical cyclone(TC) geneses,the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity may imply a similar problem of TC genesis in the GCMs,namely,a delayed and shortened TC season in the northern hemisphere.  相似文献   

Re-equilibration of CO₂ fluid inclusions at controlled hydrogen fugacities     

G. B. MORGAN VI  I-MING CHOU  J. D. PASTERIS  S. N. OLSEN 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》1993,11(1):155-164

Abstract Natural, pure CO₂ inclusions in quartz and olivine (c. Fo₉₀) were exposed to controlled f_H2 conditions at T= 718–728°C and P_total= 2 kbar; their compositions were monitored (before and after exposures) by microsampling Raman spectroscopy (MRS) and microthermometry. In both minerals exposed at the graphite–methane buffer (f_H2= 73 bar), fluid speciations record the diffusion of hydrogen into the inclusions. In quartz, room-temperature products in euhedral isolated (EI type) inclusions are carbonic phases with molar compositions of c. CO₂(60) + CH₄(40) plus graphite (Gr) and H₂O, whereas anhedral inclusions along secondary fractures (AS type) are Gr-free and contain H₂O plus carbonic phases with compositions in the range c. CO₂(60) + CH₄(40) to CO₂(10) + CH₄(90). EI type inclusions in olivine evolved to c. CO₂(90–95) + CH₄(5–10) without Gr, whereas AS type inclusions have a range of compositions from CO₂(90) + CH₄(10) ± Gr to CH₄(50) + H₂(50) ± Gr; neither H₂O nor any hydrous species was detected by optical microscopy or MRS in the olivine-hosted products. Differences in composition between and among the texturally distinct populations of inclusions in both minerals probably arise from variations in initial fluid densities, as all inclusions apparently equilibrated with the ambient f_H2. These relations suggest that compositional variability among inclusions in a given natural sample does not require the entrapment of multiple generations of fluids. In addition, the absence of H₂O in the olivine-hosted inclusions would require the extraction of oxygen from the fluids, in which case re-equilibration mechanisms may be dependent on the composition and structure of the host mineral. Many of the same samples were re-exposed to identical P–T conditions using Ar as the pressure medium, yielding ambient f_H2= 0.06 bar. In most inclusions, the carbonic fluids returned to pure CO₂ and graphite persisted in the products. Reversal of the mechanisms from the prior exposure at f_H2= 73 bar did not occur in any inclusions but the AS types in olivine, in which minor CO₂ was produced at the expense of CH₄ and/or graphite. The observed non-reversibility of previous mechanisms may be attributed to: (1) slower fluid–solid reactions compared to reactions in the homogeneous fluid phase; (2) depressed activities of graphite due to poor ordering; and/or (3) low ambient f_O2 at the conditions of the second run.  相似文献   

深圳湾福田红树林保护区生态系统健康评价     

胡涛  丑庆川  徐华林  史秀华 《湿地科学与管理》2015,(1):16-20

基于PSR模型建立了深圳湾福田红树林保护区生态系统健康评价体系,运用层次分析法对保护区健康状况进行评价。结果表明:保护区生态系统的压力、状态、响应在体系中的比例分别为53.89%、29.73%、16.38%,健康指数分别为0.4080、0.5891、0.6037;保护区综合健康指数为0.4939,处于健康等级Ⅲ级(亚健康状态)。造成以上结果的主要原因为:1近30年来城市化发展导致保护区生态系统丧失部分生态功能,健康水平不断下降;2水污染、人工引种植物和病虫害等对保护区造成巨大外界压力;3建筑施工和人类活动影响保护区自然状态的恢复。  相似文献   

气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路北大核心CSCD     

丑洁明  董文杰  徐洪  涂钢 《气候与环境研究》2022,27(1):206-216

鉴于气候变化影响粮食安全问题的特殊性和复杂性,本文试图从自然科学和社会科学的交叉研究入手,提出一种新的研究的思路和方法,即:运用计量经济学模型对气候变化数据进行统计分析,使用计量经济学方法来评估气候这一外部驱动因素引发的社会经济系统变化与观测到的气候变化引发的社会经济系统变化之间的关系;在厘清“气候变化影响量”对粮食产量的影响的基础上,预估我国未来30年特别是经济社会发展两个关键节点2035年和2050年的粮食生产的气候变化风险,文章给出了一种新的研究视角,构建了研究内容和研究方法,力争实现定性研究与定量研究相结合,以科学预测为政策指导提供有力支撑。  相似文献   

Numerical Study on Breaking Criteria for Solitary Waves     

Chung-ren CHOU  Ruey-syan SHIH  John Z. YIM 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(4):589-604

Studies of the breaking criteria for solitary waves on a slope are presented in this paper. The boundary element method is used to model the processes of shoaling and breaking of solitary waves on various slopes. Empirical formulae that can be used to characterize the breaking of solitary waves are presented. These include the breaking index, the wave height, the water depth, and the maximum particle velocity at the point of breaking. Comparisons with the results of other researches are given.  相似文献   

A Study of Wind Statistics Through Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) Modeling     

John  Z.YIM 《中国海洋工程》2001,(1):61-72

Statistical properties of winds near the Taichung Harbour are investigated. The 26 years'incomplete data of wind speeds, measured on an hourly basis, are used as reference. The possibility of imputation using simulated results of the Auto-Regressive (AR), Moving-Average (MA), and/ or Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) models is studied. Predictions of the 25-year extreme wind speeds based upon the augmented data are compared with the original series. Based upon the results, predictions of the 50- and 100-year extreme wind speeds are then made.  相似文献   

A Numerical Wave Tank for Nonlinear Waves with Passive Absorption   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

Chung-Ren CHOU 《中国海洋工程》2001,(2):253-268

  相似文献   

Generation and Deformation of Solitary Waves   总被引：2，自引：6，他引：2  

Chou Chung-Ren Shih Ruey-Syan Professor  Dept. of Harbor  River Engineering  National Taiwan Ocean University . Graduate Student  Dept. of Harbor  River Engineering  National Taiwan Ocean University 《中国海洋工程》1996,(4)

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当前流体包裹体研究和应用概况   总被引：12，自引：7，他引：12  

池国祥周义明  卢焕章 《岩石学报》2003,19(2):201-212

本文概要总结近年来流体包裹体研究和应用的发展情况，包括流体包裹体岩相学，PVTX研究，分析技术和应用等四个方面。岩相学方面的主要进展反映在“流体包裹体组合”概念的提出和应用。在PVTX研究方面，人工包裹体和热液金刚石压腔的应用极大地促进了我们对地质流体体系相特征的了解。各种分析技术不断涌现或改进，其中以Laser-Raman对气体成分和LA-ICP—MS对溶质成分的分析尤其有用。流体包裹体的应用领域一直以矿床学研究为主，当前和今后一段时间仍将如此。但是，流体包裹体在地球科学的其它领域，尤其是石油地质以及岩浆和地球内部过程的研究等方面，正得到越来越多的应用。  相似文献