Modelling temperature extremes in the Limpopo province: bivariate time-varying threshold excess approach     

Maposa  Daniel  Seimela  Anna M.  Sigauke  Caston  Cochran  James J. 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(3):2227-2249

Natural Hazards - Aiming at the stability of a highway slope reinforced with anti-sliding piles, the mechanical behaviour of the inclined pile-soil arch in a soil slope reinforced with anti-sliding...  相似文献   

Evaluating property buyouts and disaster recovery assistance (Rebuild) options in Canada: A comparative analysis of Constance Bay,Ontario and Pointe Gatineau,Quebec     

Cottar  Shaieree  Doberstein  Brent  Henstra  Daniel  Wandel  Johanna 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(1):201-220

Natural Hazards - How have property buyouts and disaster recovery assistance programs been implemented in Canadian communities? This paper compares contrasting policies and programs in two Canadian...  相似文献   

China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme: lessons from the pilot emission trading schemes,academic literature,and known policy details     

Thomas Stoerk  Daniel J. Dudek  Jia Yang 《Climate Policy》2019,19(4):472-486

Upon completion, China’s national emissions trading scheme (C-ETS) will be the largest carbon market in the world. Recent research has evaluated China’s seven pilot ETSs launched from 2013 on, and academic literature on design aspects of the C-ETS abounds. Yet little is known about the specific details of the upcoming C-ETS. This article combines currently understood details of China’s national carbon market with lessons learned in the pilot schemes as well as from the academic literature. Our review follows the taxonomy of Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (Partnership for Market Readiness & International Carbon Action Partnership. (2016). Retrieved from www.worldbank.org): The 10 categories are: scope, cap, distribution of allowances, use of offsets, temporal flexibility, price predictability, compliance and oversight, stakeholder engagement and capacity building, linking, implementation and improvements.

Key policy insights

• Accurate emissions data is paramount for both design and implementation, and its availability dictates the scope of the C-ETS.

• The stakeholder consultative process is critical for effective design, and China is able to build on its extensive experience through the pilot ETSs.

• Current policies and positions on intensity targets and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits constrain the market design of the C-ETS.

• Most critical is the nature of the cap. The currently discussed rate-based cap with ex post adjustment is risky. Instead, an absolute, mass-based emissions cap coupled with the conditional use of permits would allow China to maintain flexibility in the carbon market while ensuring a limit on CO₂ emissions.

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High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers     

Schmidt  Daniel F.  Grise  Kevin M.  Pace  Michael L. 《Climatic change》2019,152(3-4):517-532

Climatic Change - This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over...  相似文献   

Caribbean hydrological variability during the Holocene as reconstructed from crater lakes on the island of Grenada     

Sherilyn C. Fritz  Svante Björck  Catherine A. Rigsby  Paul A. Baker  Amy Calder‐Church  Daniel J. Conley 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(8):829-838

Contemporary precipitation patterns in the Caribbean region are spatially variable, and the small number of Holocene paleoclimatic records may not adequately capture patterns of variation in the past. The hydrological history of Grenada was inferred from paleolimnological analyses of sediment cores from two crater lakes on the island. The basins were formed by volcanic activity some time during the Last Termination, but were dry between ca. 13 000 and ca. 7200 cal. a BP. After filling, the lakes were initially very shallow, and sedimentation was interrupted by a hiatus ca. 6300–5500 cal. a BP, followed by deposition of a thick tephra in both sites. After 5500 cal. a BP, lake level shows considerable multi‐centennial variability, superimposed upon a long‐term trend of generally higher lake level after 3200 cal. a BP. The pattern of lake‐level variation in Grenada shows some similarity with other Caribbean paleoclimatic records in terms of the timing of transitions, but differs from several classic studies in the sign of inferred precipitation change. The differences among records may reflect spatially variable precipitation patterns in the past in response to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and to sea surface temperature influences on the trade winds and Caribbean low‐level jet. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The effect of pore water pressure on tunnel face stability          下载免费PDF全文

Qiujing Pan  Daniel Dias 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(15):2123-2136

The kinematic approach in combination with numerical simulation is used to examine the effect of pore water pressure on tunnel face stability. Pore water pressure distribution obtained by numerical calculations using FLAC^3D is used to interpolate the pore water pressure on a 3D rotational collapse mechanism. Comparisons are made to check the present approach against other solutions, showing that the present approach improves the existing upper bound solutions. Results obtained indicate that critical effective face pressure increases with water table elevation. Several normalized charts are also presented for quick evaluation of tunnel face stability. At the end of the paper, the influence of anisotropic permeability on tunnel face stability is also discussed, showing that the isotropic model leads to an overestimation of the necessary tunnel face pressure for anisotropic soils. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Palaeo-environmental and dietary analysis of intestinal contents of a mammoth calf (Yamal Peninsula,northwest Siberia)     

Bas van Geel  Daniel C. Fisher  Adam N. Rountrey  Jan van Arkel  Joost F. Duivenvoorden  Aline M. Nieman  Guido B.A. van Reenen  Alexei N. Tikhonov  Bernard Buigues  Barbara Gravendeel 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(27-28):3935-3946

Intestinal samples from the one-month-old Siberian mammoth calf ‘Lyuba’ were studied using light microscopy and ancient DNA to reconstruct its palaeo-environment and diet. The palynological record indicates a ‘mammoth steppe’. At least some pollen of arboreal taxa was reworked, and thus the presence of trees on the landscape is uncertain. In addition to visual comparison of 11 microfossil spectra, a PCA analysis contributed to diet reconstruction. This yielded two clusters: one of samples from the small intestine and the other of large-intestine samples, indicating compositional differences in food remains along the intestinal tract, possibly reflecting different episodes of ingestion. Based on observed morphological damage we conclude that the cyperaceous plant remains and some remains of dwarf willows were originally eaten by a mature mammoth, most likely Lyuba’s mother. The mammoth calf probably unintentionally swallowed well-preserved mosses and mineral particles while eating fecal material deposited on a soil surface covered with mosses. Coprophagy may have been a common habit for mammoths, and we therefore propose that fecal material should not be used to infer season of death of mammoths. DNA sequences of trnL and rbcL genes amplified from ancient DNA extracted from intestinal samples confirmed and supplemented plant identifications based on microfossils and macro-remains. Results from different extraction methods and barcoding markers complemented each other and show the value of longer protocols in addition to fast and commercially available extraction kits.  相似文献   

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and phosphate-classified bottom-up control of Atlantic pelagic ecosystems through the 20th century     

Daniel Kamykowski 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2010,57(10):1266-1277

Both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) biosphere have recognized associations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These multidecadal physical–biological affinities inspired a closer look at AMOC influences on bottom-up control of NA and South Atlantic Ocean (SA) pelagic ecosystem variability. Various ocean models associate changes in the AMOC with sea surface temperature (SST) differences in the western subpolar NA and SA represented as the Atlantic Dipole SST Anomaly (ADSA) index. The Extended Reconstructed SST version 2 (ERSSTv2) dataset for 2° quadrangles from 1890 to 2007 was used here to represent Atlantic Ocean SST patterns and to gauge 20th century AMOC variability using an Atlantic Dipole SST (ADS) index, an un-normalized version of ADSA index. Temperature–phosphate (T–PO₄) linear regressions were used to convert temperature to phosphate concentration ([PO₄]). The interannual stability of T–PO₄ linear regressions first was examined using 26 Bermuda area T–PO₄ datasets between 1958 and 2001. Within the constraints provided by the Bermuda analysis, climatological T–PO₄ linear regressions based on GEOSECS-derived slopes and NODC-derived X-intercepts supported the conversion of monthly Atlantic Ocean ERSSTv2 temperatures for each 2° quadrangle to monthly surface [PO₄]. A representative annual surface phosphate utilization (SPU) was calculated for each 2° quadrangle by subtracting monthly minimum surface [PO₄] from monthly maximum surface [PO₄] to determine the annual surface [PO₄] ranges from 1890 to 2007. Annual average SST tended to increase and overall annual average SPU tended to decrease through the 20th century in both the NA and SA, but the NA exhibited more temporal variability. An Atlantic Dipole Phosphate Utilization (ADPU) index related to the ADS index was calculated for each year from 1890 to 2007. The ADS and ADPU indices were inversely correlated with about 57% of the variability in the ADPU index explained by the ADS index. The ADPU index exhibited three distinct cycles through the 20th century. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the NAO led the ADS and ADPU indices by about 14 years. Differences in annual average SPU for each Atlantic Ocean 2° quadrangle between the three high and four low years of the ADPU cycles yielded six maps that, when averaged, clearly exhibited reversed east–west patterns distributed in alternating latitudinal bands in both the NA and SA. The east–west patterns spatially corresponded to the NA and SA surface circulation and temporally resembled NA patterns previously associated with the NAO. AMOC variability, mediated by Kelvin and Rossby waves associated with changes in both deep and surface arm circulation, likely contributed to meridional continuity of phosphate-classified, NA, and SA pelagic ecosystem variability, including fisheries, through the 20th century. Based on the results, future global warming influences on the AMOC, well short of shutdown, likely will have complex pelagic ecosystem impacts throughout the Atlantic Ocean.  相似文献   

Stream nitrate uptake and transient storage over a gradient of geomorphic complexity,north‐central Colorado,USA     

Daniel W. Baker  Brian P. Bledsoe  Jennifer Mueller Price 《水文研究》2012,26(21):3241-3252

The understanding of nutrient uptake in streams is impeded by a limited understanding of how geomorphic setting and flow regime interact with biogeochemical processing. This study investigated these interactions as they relate to transient storage and nitrate uptake in small agricultural and urban streams. Sites were selected across a gradient of channel conditions and management modifications and included three 180‐m long geomorphically distinct reaches on each of two streams in north‐central Colorado. The agricultural stream has been subject to historically variable cattle‐grazing practices, and the urban stream exhibits various levels of stabilisation and planform alteration. Reach‐scale geomorphic complexity was characterised using highly detailed surveys of channel morphology, substrate, hydraulics and habitat units. Breakthrough‐curve modelling of conservative bromide (Br^?) and nonconservative nitrate (NO₃^?) tracer injections characterised transient storage and nitrate uptake along each reach. Longitudinal roughness and flow depth were positively associated with transient storage, which was related to nitrate uptake, thus underscoring the importance of geomorphic influences on stream biogeochemical processes. In addition, changes in geomorphic characteristics due to temporal discharge variation led to complex responses in nitrate uptake. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fishing rights and small communities: Alaska halibut IFQ transfer patterns     

Courtney Carothers  Daniel K. Lew  Jennifer Sepez 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(9):518-523

In the Alaska halibut individual fishing quota (IFQ) fishery, small remote fishing communities (SRFCs) have disproportionately lost fishing rights. Our analysis of quota market participation from 1995 to 1999 confirms that SRFC residents are more likely to sell than buy quota. Alaska Native heritage is another important predictor of quota market behavior. Residents of Alaska Native villages have an increased likelihood of selling quota. Loss of fisheries participation in small indigenous communities can be an unintended consequence of quota systems. Mitigation measures should take into account the social factors that can lead to such a redistribution of fishing rights in privatized access fisheries.  相似文献