Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing     

Susan Solomon  John S. Daniel 《Climatic change》1996,32(1):7-17

Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.  相似文献   

Calibration of regional pollen data to construct maps of former forest types in southern Sweden     

Gisela Björse  Richard H. W. Bradshaw  Daniel B. Michelson 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1996,16(1):67-78

A method was developed to construct maps of former forest types based on regional pollen data in southern Sweden. The considered species were Alnus, Betula, Carpinus, Corylus, Fagus, Fraxinus, Juniperus, Picea, Pinus, Populus, Quercus, Salix, Tilia and Ulmus. A network of 37 regional pollen sites with high data quality from lakes and peat deposits were selected from Sweden south of 60 ° N. Pollen percentage values were calculated and converted into estimates of tree composition. For controlling the reliability of the reconstruction, the estimates from the core-tops were compared with present day forest inventory data, and local pollen diagrams were compared with the regional pollen diagrams. An inverse distance weighted interpolation algorithm was used to generate maps for each tree species distribution at 2000 BP, 1500 BP, 1000 BP, 500 BP and 0 BP. A supervised classification routine was implemented to generate nine different forest types common to the five studied time intervals. The maps show that the amounts and patterns of distribution of the species and the forest types have varied in a significant but systematic manner through time. The changes are due to human activities, migrational patterns and changes in climate. These maps will be of value as a basis for future landscape planning, forestry and conservation of biodiversity.This is the 20th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers.  相似文献   

Scales of nutrient-limited phytoplankton productivity in Chesapeake Bay   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Thomas C. Malone  Daniel J. Conley  Thomas R. Fisher  Patricia M. Glibert  Lawrence W. Harding  Kevin G. Sellner 《Estuaries and Coasts》1996,19(2):371-385

The scales on which phytoplankton biomass vary in response to variable nutrient inputs depend on the nutrient status of the plankton community and on the capacity of consumers to respond to increases in phytoplankton productivity. Overenrichment and associated declines in water quality occur when phytoplankton growth rate becomes nutrient-saturated, the production and consumption of phytoplankton biomass become uncoupled in time and space, and phytoplankton biomass becomes high and varies on scales longer than phytoplankton generation times. In Chesapeake Bay, phytoplankton growth rates appear to be limited by dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) during spring when biomass reaches its annual maximum and by dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) during summer when phytoplankton growth rates are highest. However, despite high inputs of DIN and dissolved silicate (DSi) relative to DIP (molar ratios of N∶P and Si∶P>100), seasonal accumulations of phytoplankton biomass within the salt-intruded-reach of the bay appear to be limited by riverine DIN supply while the magnitude of the spring diatom bloom is governed by DSi supply. Seasonal imbalances between biomass production and consumption lead to massive accumulations of phytoplankton biomass (often>1,000 mg Chl-a m^?2) during spring, to spring-summer oxygen depletion (summer bottom water <20% saturation), and to exceptionally high levels of annual phytoplankton production (>400 g m^?2 yr^?1). Nitrogen-dependent seasonal accumulations of phytoplankton biomass and annual production occur as a consequence of differences in the rates and pathways of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling within the bay and underscore the importance of controlling nitrogen inputs to the mesohaline and lower reaches of the bay.  相似文献   

Anomalous structural evolution of the Shimanto Accretionary Prism at Murotomisaki, Shikoku Island, Japan     

James  Hibbard  Daniel  Karig Asahiko  Taira 《Island Arc》1992,1(1):133-147

Abstract The Late Oligocene-Early Miocene Nabae Sub-belt of the Shimanto Accretionary Prism was created coevally (ca 25-15 Ma) with the opening of the Shikoku back-arc basin, located to the south of the southwest Japan convergent margin. The detailed geology of the sub-belt has been controversial and the interaction of the Shimanto accretionary prism and the opening of the Shikoku Basin has been ambiguous. New structural analysis of the sub-belt has led to a new perception of its structural framework and has significant bearing on the interpretation of the Neogene tectonics of southwest Japan. The sub-belt is divided into three units: the Nabae Complex; the Shijujiyama Formation; and the Maruyama Intrusive Suite. The Nabae Complex comprises coherent units and mélange, all of which show polyphase deformation. The first phase of deformation appears to have involved landward vergent thrusting of coherent units over the mélange terrane. The second phase of deformation involved continued landward vergent shortening. The Shijujiyama Formation, composed mainly of mafic volcanics and massive sandstone, is interpreted as a slope basin deposited upon the Nabae Complex during the second phase of deformation. The youngest deformational pulse involved regional flexing and accompanying pervasive faulting. During this event, mafic rocks of the Maruyama Intrusive Suite intruded the sub-belt. Fossil evidence in the Nabae Complex and radiometric dates on the intrusive rocks indicate that this tectonic scheme was imprinted upon the sub-belt between ～23 and ～14 Ma. The timing of accretion and deformation of the sub-belt coincides with the opening of the Shikoku Basin; hence, subduction and spreading operated simultaneously. Accretion of the Nabae Sub-belt was anomalous, involving landward vergent thrusting, magmatism in newly accreted strata and regional flexing. It is proposed that this complex and anomalous structural history is largely related to the subduction of the active Shikoku Basin spreading ridge and associated seamounts.  相似文献   

Sr-Isotope record of Quaternary marine terraces on the California coast and off Hawaii     

Kenneth R. Ludwig  Daniel R. Muhs  Kathleen R. Simmons  James G. Moore 《Quaternary Research》1992,37(3)

Strontium-isotopic ratios of dated corals have been obtained from submerged reefs formed during Quaternary glacial periods off the Hawaiian islands. These data, combined with data from deep-sea sediments, tightly constrain the secular variation of marine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr for the past 800,000 yr. Although long-term trends are apparent, no significant (>0.02‰), rapid (<100,000 yr) excursions in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr were resolved nor did we observe any samples with ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr greater than that of modern seawater. Strontium in mollusks from elevated marine terraces formed during interglacial periods on the southern California coast show resolvable and consistent variations in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr which, when compared to the trend of Quaternary marine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, can be used to infer uplift rates and define approximate ages for the higher terraces. The Sr-isotope age estimates indicate that uplift rates vary among crustal blocks and were not necessarily constant with time. No contrast in Sr-isotopic ratios between similar-age Hawaiian and California fossils was observed, confirming that any change in marine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr from glacial to interglacial periods must be small. A realistic appraisal of the potential of Sr-isotope stratigraphy for chronometric applications in the Quaternary suggests that the technique will be limited to relatively coarse distinctions in age.  相似文献   

Mountains,nations, parks,and conservation     

Daniel Taylor-Ide  Alton C. Byers III  J. Gabriel Campbell 《GeoJournal》1992,27(1):105-112

Between 1985 and 1991, two new mountain protected areas (MTNPA) covering more than 35,000 km² and based on participatory management models — the Makalu-Barun National Park and Conservation Area, Nepal, and Qomolangma Nature Preserve, Tibet Autonomous Region — were successfully established through the collaborative efforts of Woodlands Mountain Institute and conservationists in China and Nepal. Characteristics common to both projects include the importance of establishing (1) effective rationales, (2) local support constituencies, (3) a senior advisory group, (4) a task force, (5) linkages between conservation and development, and (6) fund raising mechanisms. The lessons derived from the experiences of Woodlands Mountain Institute are of significant value to others in preserving MTNPA. Increased collaboration and communication between all interested in conservation, however, will remain a critical component for expanding mountain protected area coverage to throughout the world.  相似文献   

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction     

Daniel J. Brehm  Lawrence W. Braile 《Journal of Seismology》1999,3(2):121-138

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.  相似文献   

A meta-analysis of global crop water productivity of three leading world crops (wheat,corn, and rice) in the irrigated areas over three decades     

Daniel J. Foley  Itiya P. Aneece  Pardhasaradhi G. Teluguntla  Adam J. Oliphant 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2020,13(8):939-975

ABSTRACT

The overarching goal of this study was to perform a comprehensive meta-analysis of irrigated agricultural Crop Water Productivity (CWP) of the world’s three leading crops: wheat, corn, and rice based on three decades of remote sensing and non-remote sensing-based studies. Overall, CWP data from 148 crop growing study sites (60 wheat, 43 corn, and 45 rice) spread across the world were gathered from published articles spanning 31 different countries. There was overwhelming evidence of a significant increase in CWP with an increase in latitude for predominately northern hemisphere datasets. For example, corn grown in latitude 40–50° had much higher mean CWP (2.45?kg/m³) compared to mean CWP of corn grown in other latitudes such as 30–40° (1.67?kg/m³) or 20–30° (0.94?kg/m³). The same trend existed for wheat and rice as well. For soils, none of the CWP values, for any of the three crops, were statistically different. However, mean CWP in higher latitudes for the same soil was significantly higher than the mean CWP for the same soil in lower latitudes. This applied for all three crops studied. For wheat, the global CWP categories were low (≤0.75?kg/m³), medium (>0.75 to <1.10?kg/m³), and high CWP (≥1.10?kg/m³). For corn the global CWP categories were low (≤1.25?kg/m³), medium (>1.25 to ≤1.75?kg/m³), and high (>1.75?kg/m³). For rice the global CWP categories were low (≤0.70?kg/m³), medium (>0.70 to ≤1.25?kg/m³), and high (>1.25?kg/m³). USA and China are the only two countries that have consistently high CWP for wheat, corn, and rice. Australia and India have medium CWP for wheat and rice. India’s corn, however, has low CWP. Egypt, Turkey, Netherlands, Mexico, and Israel have high CWP for wheat. Romania, Argentina, and Hungary have high CWP for corn, and Philippines has high CWP for rice. All other countries have either low or medium CWP for all three crops. Based on data in this study, the highest consumers of water for crop production also have the most potential for water savings. These countries are USA, India, and China for wheat; USA, China, and Brazil for corn; India, China, and Pakistan for rice. For example, even just a 10% increase in CWP of wheat grown in India can save 6974 billion liters of water. This is equivalent to creating 6974 lakes each of 100?m³ in volume that leads to many benefits such as acting as ‘water banks’ for lean season, recreation, and numerous ecological services. This study establishes the volume of water that can be saved for each crop in each country when there is an increase in CWP by 10%, 20%, and 30%.  相似文献   

An unstable arch model of a solar flare   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daniel S. Spicer 《Solar physics》1977,53(2):305-345

The theoretical consequences of assuming that a current flows along flaring arches consistent with a twist in the field lines of these arches are examined. It is found that a sequence of magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) and resistive MHD instabilities driven by the assumed current (which we refer to as the toroidal current) can naturally explain most manifestations of a solar flare.The principal flare instability in the proposed model is the resistive kink (or tearing mode in arch geometry) which plays the role of thermalizing some of the field energy in the arch and generating X-configured neutral points needed for particle acceleration. The difference between thermal and nonthermal flares is elucidated and explained, in part, by amplitude-dependent instabilities, generally referred to as overlapping resonances. We show that the criteria for the generation of flare shocks strongly depend on the magnitude and gradient steepness of the toroidal current, which also are found to determine the volume and rate of energy release. The resulting model is in excellent agreement with present observations and has successfully predicted several flare phenomena.  相似文献   

A three-dimensional numerical model of particulate transport for coastal waters     

Malcolm L. Spaulding  Daniel Pavish 《Continental Shelf Research》1984,3(1):55-67

A Lagrangian marker particle in Eulerian finite difference cell solution to the three-dimensional incompressible mass transport equation was developed for predicting particulate transport in coastal and estuarine waters. Special features of the solution procedure include a finite difference grid network which translates horizontally and vertically with the mean particle motion and expands with the dispersive growth of the marker particle cloud. The cartesian vertical coordinate of the three-dimensional mass transport equation has been transformed, using instantaneous water column depth to allow adaptation to flow situations with a temporally and spatially varying bottom topography and free surface. Results from this model for turbulent diffusion and advection of a uniform plug flow of sediment in an unbounded uniform flow field with various sediment settling velocities were in excellent agreement with the corresponding analytic solutions. Using current information from a two-dimensional vertically averaged hydrodynamic's model, the model was utilized to predict the long term diffusion and advection of dilute neutrally and negatively buoyant suspended sediment clouds resulting from a hypothetical instantaneous release of dredge spoil waste at Brown's Ledge in Rhode Island Sound.  相似文献