Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

Do extrusion ages reflect magma generation processes at depth? An example from the Neogene Volcanic Province of SE Spain     

Bernardo Cesare  Daniela Rubatto  María Teresa Gómez-Pugnaire 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,157(2):267-279

The high-K calc-alkaline volcanic rocks along the Neogene Volcanic Province of SE Spain represent crustal anatectic melts mixed with mantle components during the opening of the Alborán Sea. Partially melted metapelitic enclaves, along with the geochemical signature, provide evidence of their crustal source. U–Pb SHRIMP geochronology on monazite and zircon from enclaves and their hosting lavas in the localities of El Hoyazo, Mazarrón and Mar Menor reveals variable delays between the melting at depth and the eruption of the volcanics. These data indicate that: (1) the most important event of anatexis in the Neogene spanned at least the 3 m.y. interval between 12 and 9 Ma; (2) there is no trend in age of crustal melting; and (3) the delay between magma generation and extrusion varies from more than 3 m.y. at El Hoyazo to ~0.5 m.y. and possibly 2.5 m.y. at Mar Menor, with no significant delay measurable at Mazarrón. The variable time delay between anatexis and lava extrusion indicates that radiometric ages of volcanics may provide misleading information on the timing of magma genesis occurring at depth. This highlights the pitfall of basing detailed geodynamic models on volcanic extrusion ages alone. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

Spectral density regression for bivariate extremes     

Daniela?Castro Camilo  Miguel?de CarvalhoEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1603-1613

We introduce a density regression model for the spectral density of a bivariate extreme value distribution, that allows us to assess how extremal dependence can change over a covariate. Inference is performed through a double kernel estimator, which can be seen as an extension of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator where the usual scalar responses are replaced by mean constrained densities on the unit interval. Numerical experiments with the methods illustrate their resilience in a variety of contexts of practical interest. An extreme temperature dataset is used to illustrate our methods.  相似文献   

A study of the geophysical response of distributed fibre optic acoustic sensors through laboratory‐scale experiments          下载免费PDF全文

Bence Papp  Daniela Donno  James E. Martin  Arthur H. Hartog 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(5):1186-1204

In the past few years, distributed acoustic sensing has gained great interest in geophysics. This acquisition technology offers immense improvement in terms of efficiency when compared with current geophysical acquisition methods. However, the fundamentals of the measurement are still not fully understood because direct comparisons of fibre data with conventional geophysical sensors are difficult during field tests. We present downscaled laboratory experiments that enabled us to characterise the relationship between the signals recorded by conventional seismic point receivers and by distributed fibre optic sensors. Interrogation of the distributed optical fibre sensor was performed with a Michelson interferometer because this system is suited to compact test configurations, and it requires only a very simple data processing workflow for extracting the signal outputs. We show acoustic data that were recorded simultaneously by both the fibre optical interferometer and conventional three‐component accelerometers, thus enabling the comparison of sensor performance. We present results focused on the directionality of fibre measurements, on the amplitude variation with angle of incidence, and on the transfer function that allows accelerometer signals to be transformed into optical fibre signals. We conclude that the optical fibre response matches with the array of the displacement differences of the inline accelerometers deployed along the fibre length. Moreover, we also analysed the influence of various types of coupling and fibre cable coating on the signal responses, emphasising the importance of these parameters for field seismic acquisitions when using the distributed fibre optic technology.  相似文献   

New Reference Materials and Assessment of Matrix Effects for SIMS Measurements of Oxygen Isotopes in Garnet     

Alice Vho  Daniela Rubatto  Benita Putlitz  Anne‐Sophie Bouvier 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2020,44(3):459-471

Accurate ion microprobe analysis of oxygen isotope ratios in garnet requires appropriate reference materials to correct for instrumental mass fractionation that partly depends on the garnet chemistry (matrix effect). The matrix effect correlated with grossular, spessartine and andradite components was characterised for the Cameca IMS 1280HR at the SwissSIMS laboratory based on sixteen reference garnet samples. The correlations fit a second‐degree polynomial with maximum bias of ca. 4‰, 2‰ and 8‰, respectively. While the grossular composition range 0–25% is adequately covered by available reference materials, there is a paucity of them for intermediate compositions. We characterise three new garnet reference materials GRS2, GRS‐JH2 and CAP02 with a grossular content of 88.3 ± 1.2% (2s), 83.3 ± 0.8% and 32.5 ± 3.0%, respectively. Their micro scale homogeneity in oxygen isotope composition was evaluated by multiple SIMS sessions. The reference δ¹⁸O value was determined by CO₂ laser fluorination (δ¹⁸O_LF). GRS2 has δ¹⁸O_LF = 8.01 ± 0.10‰ (2s) and repeatability within each SIMS session of 0.30–0.60‰ (2s), GRS‐JH2 has δ¹⁸O_LF = 18.70 ± 0.08‰ and repeatability of 0.24–0.42‰ and CAP02 has δ¹⁸O_LF = 4.64 ± 0.16‰ and repeatability of 0.40–0.46‰.  相似文献   

Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín,Colombia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez  Daniela Zuloaga-Romero  Gabriel A. Bernal  Miguel G. Mora  Omar-Darío Cardona 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(2):671-695

A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates.  相似文献   

National Civil Protection Organization and technical activities in the 2012 Emilia earthquakes (Italy)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mauro Dolce  Daniela Di Bucci 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2231-2253

On May 2012, a severe seismic sequence occurred in the central part of the Po Plain (Northern Italy). It was characterized by two main shocks displaying local magnitudes 5.9 (on May 20th) and 5.8 (on May 29th), respectively; the maximum observed intensity was VII–VIII on the MCS scale. The emergency response was coordinated as usual by the Department of Civil Protection (DPC), within the general framework provided by the components and operational structures of the National Civil Protection Service. In addition to the search and rescue and to the population assistance activities, many technical activities were carried out to support the civil protection management of the recovery phase. Among these, mentioning is deserved by: the acquisition and dissemination of the accelerometric data from the National Accelerometric Network and the Seismic Observatory of the Structures, owned and operated by DPC; the evaluation of the liquefaction phenomena; the damage and building safety assessment; the regulations for the seismic safety assessment of industrial buildings, aimed at a rapid re-establishment of the productive activities; the actions undertaken following the evaluations by the Grandi Rischi Commission on the possible evolution of the seismic sequence. All these aspects will be examined under a civil protection perspective.  相似文献   

Simultaneous LC–MS/MS Determination of Imidazolinone Herbicides Together with Other Multiclass Pesticide Residues in Soil          下载免费PDF全文

Gisele L. Martins  Caroline A. Friggi  Osmar D. Prestes  Michele C. Vicari  Daniela A. Friggi  Martha B. Adaime  Renato Zanella 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(10):1441-1449

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Characterization of an Area Polluted by Copper and Zinc:the Relation between Soil Texture,Mineralogy and Pollutant Concentration     

Caterina RINAUDO  Daniela GASTALDI  Orfeo ZERBINATI  Elisa FORNERO  Graziella BERTA 《《地质学报》英文版》2009,83(6):1224-1231

Abstract: Twenty-four soil samples were collected at three depths from an approximately 2.5 acre contaminated site in southern Piedmont (Italy) and then analyzed. The main soil parameters determined were: pH, Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), particle size distribution, total organic carbon (TOC) content and retained metal concentration. The mineral phases were identified by X-Ray Powder Diffraction (XRPD). All of the samples contained Zn and Cu resulting from industrial contamination during the last century, and those obtained at depths of 20-40 cm consistently showed the highest levels. To determine which size fraction was most active in the retention process, the samples were separated into four fractions (≤2 mm, ≤63 μm, ≤30 μm and ≤2 μm) and the amount of pollutant measured in each. It was found that metal retention was the highest in the clayey fraction, whose clay minerals were identified by XRPD after K+ and Mg2+ saturation, glycerol treatment and heating to 550°C. The clayey fraction was also the richest in TOC, and a direct correlation between TOC amount and metal retention was observed.  相似文献   

Mercury resolved spectroscopy from NTT     

Stéphane Erard  Bruno Bézard  Alain Doressoundiram  Daniela Despan 《Planetary and Space Science》2011,59(15):1842-1852

Mercury has been observed in June 2006 with the SofI instrument at NTT. Resolved spectroscopy was performed in the range. The observations were acquired close to a favorable quadrature with maximum elongation, and span mostly the southern hemisphere in the 235–315°E longitude area.In contrast to recent observations from IRTF, the present study does not indicate any pyroxene absorption in the near-infrared range, neither in the region nor at . Detailed spectral analysis allows to derive an upper limit of 1.5% type-A pyroxene (hedenbergite) or 1.1% enstatite (assuming minimum lunar iron content) in the regions observed, at the 700 km scale. Assuming lunar-like maturity effects on band depth, this corresponds to an upper limit of 0.15 and 0.6 wt.% FeO content in silicates, an order of magnitude less than previous estimates.  相似文献