Impact of Three-Parameter Weibull Models in Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards     

Sumanta?PasariEmail author  Onkar?Dikshit 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(7):1251-1281

This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north–east India and its surrounding region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance–covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.  相似文献   

Erosion and aggradation on persistently active volcanoes—a case study from Semeru Volcano,Indonesia     

Jean-Claude Thouret  Jean-François Oehler  Avijit Gupta  Akhmad Solikhin  Jonathan N. Procter 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2014,76(10):1-26

Erosion processes on active volcanoes in humid climates result in some of the highest sediment yields on Earth. Episodic sediment yields after large eruptions have been evaluated, but not the long-term and continuous patterns on persistently active volcanoes. We have used high-spatial resolution satellite imagery and DEMs/DSMs along with field-based geologic mapping to assess accurately sediment budgets for the active Semeru Volcano in Java, Indonesia. Patterns of aggradation and degradation on Semeru differ from that of other active volcanoes because (1) both episodic pyroclastic density currents (PDC) and continuous supplies of tephra generate pulses of sediment, (2) sediment is transferred via cycles of aggradation and degradation that continue for >15 years in river channels after each PDC-producing eruption, and (3) rain-triggered lahars remove much greater material than fluvial transport during long, intense rainfall events. The geomorphic response of two of Semeru’s rivers to volcanic sediment migration indicates that (1) each river experiences alternating aggradation and degradation cycles following PDC-producing eruptions and (2) spatial patterns of sediment transfer are governed by geomorphic characteristics of the river reaches. Usually high degradation in the steep source reach is followed by a long bypassing middle reach. Aggradation predominates in the depositional reaches further down valley on the ring plain. Average sediment yields (10³–10⁵ t/km²/year) at persistently active volcanoes are two to three orders of magnitude lower than sediment yields after large and infrequent eruptions, but the continuous and steady sediment transfer in rivers removes more sediment on a mid-term (10 years) to long-term (30 years) basis. In contrast to the trend observed on composite cones after large and infrequent eruptions, decay of sediment yields is not exponential and river channels do not fully recover at steadily active volcanoes as episodic inputs from BAF eruptions, superimposed on the background remobilization of daily tephra, have a greater cumulative effect.  相似文献   

地震波在孔隙介质中低频衰减现象的粘弹性特征分析及近似（英文）     

凌云  韩立国  张益明 《应用地球物理》2014,11(4):355-363

由于介观尺度的孔隙流体流动,弹性波传播过孔隙岩层时在地震频段表现出较强的频散和衰减。Johnson理论给出了在任意孔隙形状的条件下,部分气水饱和孔隙介质的理论相速度和品质因子的解析解。本文在Johnson模型的基础上,通过对Q值曲线的低频和高频近似,推导了Q值曲线的近似公式,以及基于孔隙介质基本地球物理参数和孔隙斑块几何形态参数T和比表面积S/V的最大衰减Qmin近似公式。通过与理论值的对比,对Qmin近似公式存在的线性误差进行改正,进一步提高了精度。复杂的斑块形态对最大衰减Qmin和过渡频率ftr的都产生一定影响,且对ftr影响更大。因为数值模拟直接求解介观尺度的Biot孔隙介质方程需要极大的计算量,我们使用Zener模型建立了等效粘弹模型,有效地模拟了地震频带内的衰减和频散现象。  相似文献   

A study on the seismic behavior of a retrofitted building based on nonlinear static and dynamic analyses     

Esra Mete Güneyisi  Gülay Altay 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2005,4(1):173-180

This study describes the seismic performance of an existing five storey reinforced concrete building which represents the typical properties of low-rise non-ductile buildings in Turkey. The effectiveness of shear walls and the steel bracings in retrofitting the building was examined through nonlinear static and dynamic analyses. By using the nonlinear static analysis, retrofitted buildings seismic performances under lateral seismic load were compared with each other. Moreover, the performance points and response levels of the existing and retrofitting cases were determined by way of the capacity-spectrum method described in ATC-40 (1996). For the nonlinear dynamic analysis the records were selected torepresent wide ranges of duration and frequency content. Considering the change in the stiffness and the energy dissipation capacities, the performance of the existing and retrofitted buildings were evaluated in terms of story drifts and damage states. It was found that each earthquake record exhibited its own peculiarities, dictated by frequency content, duration, sequence of peaks and their amplitude. The seismic performance of retrofitted buildings resulted in lower displacements and higher energy dissipation capacity depending mainly on the properties of the ground motions and the retrofitting strategies. Moreover, severe structural damage (irreparable or collapse) was observed for the existing building. However, buildings with retrofit alternatives exhibited lower damage levels changing from no damage to irreparable damage states.  相似文献   

An operational modal analysis method in frequency and spatial domain   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王彤张令弥  田村幸雄 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2005,4(2):295-300

A frequency and spatial domain decomposition method （FSDD） for operational modal analysis （OMA） is presented in this paper, which is an extension of the complex mode indicator function （CMIF） method for experimental modal analysis （EMA）. The theoretical background of the FSDD method is clarified, Singular value decomposition is adopted to separate the signal space from the noise space. Finally, an enhanced power spectrum density （PSD） is proposed to obtain more accurate modal parameters by curve fitting in the frequency domain. Moreover, a simulation case and an application case are used to validate this method.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Geochemical and environmental magnetic characteristics of high arsenic aquifer sediments from Datong Basin,northern China     

Xianjun?Xie  Yanxin?WangEmail author  Mengyu?Duan  Zuoming?Xie 《Environmental Geology》2009,58(1):53-52

Geochemical and environmental magnetic studies were carried out to identify the effect of iron oxyhydroxides on arsenic mobilization in high arsenic aquifer system. Using high arsenic sediment samples from two boreholes, specifically drilled for this study, chemical composition and magnetic properties including magnetic susceptibility, saturation remnant magnetization, and isothermal remnant magnetization were measured. Results of correlation analysis of element contents show that arsenic and iron are closely associated with each other (r ² = 0.40, α = 0.05, n = 21). In contrast, the correlation of phosphorus with iron (r = 0.11, α = 0.05, n = 21) and arsenic (r ² = 0.18, α = 0.05, n = 21) was poor, which might result from competitive adsorption of phosphorus and arsenic on the surface of Fe-oxyhydroxides. The high correlation coefficients between arsenic contents and magnetic parameters suggest that the ferrimagnetic minerals including maghemite and hematite are the dominant carrier of arsenic in aquifer sediments. The results of sequential extraction experiments also revealed the association of arsenic with reducible iron oxides, such as maghemite and hematite in aquifer sediments. Therefore, under reducing conditions, reductive dissolution and desorption of arsenic from Fe-oxyhydroxides into the aqueous phase should be the dominant geochemical processes for its enrichment in groundwater at Datong. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Geochemistry and mineralogy of shallow alluvial aquifers in Daudkandi upazila in the Meghna flood plain, Bangladesh   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Aziz Hasan  Mattias von Br?mssen  Prosun Bhattacharya  Kazi Matin Ahmed  Arif Mohiuddin Sikder  Gunnar Jacks  Ondra Sracek 《Environmental Geology》2009,57(3):499-511

The shallow alluvial aquifers of the delta plains and flood plains of Bangladesh, comprises about 70% of total land area are mostly affected by elevated concentrations of arsenic (As) in groundwater exposing a population of more than 35 million to As toxicity. Geochemical studies of shallow alluvial aquifer in the Meghna flood plain show that the uppermost yellowish grey sediment is low in As (1.03 mg/kg) compared to the lower dark grey to black sediment (5.24 mg/kg) rich in mica and organic matter. Sequential extraction data show that solid phase As bound to poorly crystalline and amorphous metal (Fe, Mn, Al)-oxyhydroxides is dominant in the grey to dark grey sediment and reaches its maximum level (3.05 mg/kg) in the mica rich layers. Amount of As bound to sulphides and organic matter also peaks in the dark grey to black sediment. Vertical distributions of major elements determined by X-ray fluorescence (XRF) show that iron (Fe₂O₃), aluminum (Al₂O₃) and manganese (MnO) follow the general trend of distribution of As in the sediments. Concentrations of As, Mn, Fe, HCO₃ ⁻, SO₄ ²⁻ and NO₃ ⁻ in groundwater reflect the redox status of the aquifer and are consistent with solid phase geochemistry. Mineralogical analysis by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fitted with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer (EDS) revealed dominance of crystalline iron oxides and hydroxides like magnetite, hematite and goethite in the oxidised yellowish grey sediment. Amorphous Fe-oxyhydroxides identified as grain coating in the mica and organic matter rich sediment suggests weathering of biotite is playing a critical role as the source of Fe(III)-oxyhydroxides which in turn act as sink for As. Presence of authigenic pyrite in the dark grey sediment indicates active reduction in the aquifer.  相似文献   

Organic tracers in sediments from the coastal zone of Ras Abu el-Darag,Gulf of Suez     

Ahmed?I.?RushdiEmail author  Tarek?A.?T.?A.?Kassim  Bernd?R.?T.?Simoneit 《Environmental Geology》2009,58(8):1675-1687

Sediment samples from the coastal zone of the Gulf of Suez contain a variety of organic compounds from anthropogenic and natural sources. A total of 12 surface samples of bottom sediments were collected with an Ekman grab sampler along an off-shore transect south of Ras Abu el-Darag. The samples were extracted with a mixture of dichloromethane and methanol (3:1 v/v) after drying and sieving through 250 μm mesh. The extracts were derivatized and analyzed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry in order to characterize the chemical composition and sources of the organic components. Marine with minor terrestrial biota were the major natural sources of organic tracers and included n-alkanoic acids, sterols and saccharides (5.7–76.7%). Anthropogenic sources, from petroleum related activities, detergent usage for spill cleaning and littering, are indicated by the presence of n-alkanes with carbon preference index ≤1.0, hopanes, steranes, unresolved complex mixture of branched and cyclic hydrocarbons, alkyl nitriles, alkamides and plasticizers. Their total relative concentrations ranged from 23.3 to 97.3% of the total extracts. Petroleum residues from natural seepage may also be part of these hydrocarbons. The levels of anthropogenic inputs decrease from about 94% in coastal zone sediments to about 20% in sediments from the reef front.  相似文献   

Computerised development control and approval system for City Hall of Kuala Lumpur     

AhrisYaakup YazidAbuBakar MohdNuruddin AbdulKadir SusilawatiSulaiman 《地球空间信息科学学报》2004,7(1):39-49

This paper will discuss the computerised development control and approval system being developed for the Planning and Development Control Department, City Hall of Kuala Lumpur, with stress on the GIS architecture developed within the system. The prospects and challenges towards implementation of the system are also discussed.  相似文献   

Seismic response control of a complex structure using multiple MR dampers： experimental investigation     

陈静  徐幼麟  瞿伟廉  吴志伦 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2004,3(2):181-193

This paper presents an experimental investigation on semi-active seismic response control of a multistory building with a podium structure using multiple magnetorheological (MR) dampers manipulated by a logic control algorithm. The experiments are performed in three phases on a seismic simulator with a slender 12-story building model representing a multi-story building and a relatively stiff 3-story building model typifying a podium structure. The first phase of the investigation is to assess control performance of using three MR dampers to link the 3-story building to the 12-story building, in which seismic responses of the controlled two buildings are compared with those of the two buildings without any connection and with rigid connection. The second phase is to investigate reliability of the semi-active control system and robustness of the logic control algorithm when 2 out of 3 MR dampers fail and when the electricity supply to MR dampers is completely stopped. The last phase is to examine sensitivity of semi-active control performance of two buildings to change in ground excitation. The experimental results show that multiple MR dampers with the logic control algorithm can achieve a significant reduction in seismic responses of both buildings. The proposed semi-active control system is of high reliability and good robustness.  相似文献