A spectrally filtered Optical Frequency Comb (OFC) laser is proposed as a versatile calibration source for astronomical spectrometers in the 1?C2 ??m spectral range. Such a source overcomes the limitations of current calibration lamps providing a uniform spectrum of equally spaced lines with similar intensity and extremely high long-term frequency stability. We present preliminary studies and results of a system which filters the OFC from a 100 MHz comb spacing to 16 GHz one, an adequate spacing for spectrometers with resolving power ????/???>30000. The first approach employs two Fabry-Perot cavities in series, made of dielectric coated mirrors, followed by a non-linear optical broadening system. The limitations of such a filtering process are discussed. These can be overcome by the second approach, based on filtering cavities with metallic coated mirrors. 相似文献
A three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow model of the deep multi-aquifer Quaternary deposits of the Po plain sedimentary basin, within a 3,300-km2 area (Veneto, Italy), is developed, tested and applied to aid sustainable large-scale water-resources management. Integrated mathematical modelling proves significantly successful, owing to an unusual wealth of available geological, geophysical, and hydrologic data and to state-of-the-art numerical tools. Of particular interest is the evaluation of the influence of alternative conceptual models; that is, of reconstructed representations of the 3D geological model of the structure of the aquifers. The reference conceptual model is set up by means of extended geological sections and stratigraphic records, and is used to create a large, unstructured 3D finite element grid. By analyzing the effects on piezometric surfaces and on the overall water budget of geometrical perturbations from the reference structure, alternative geo-structural models, obtained by systematically shifting the pinch-out of the aquitards, are compared. Interestingly, the impacts of aquitard pinch-out prove far from negligible. The results suggest the critical importance of reliable geological models even for large, complex 3D models. The good practice of iteratively testing numerically the impact of surprises on the conceptual model, as more field information is collected, is thus supported. 相似文献
Dam-break analysis is of great importance in mountain environment,especially where reservoirs are located upstream of densely populated areas and hydraulic hazard should be assessed for land planning purposes.Accordingly,there is a need to identify suitable operative tools which may differ from the ones used in flat flood-prone areas.This paper shows the results provided by a 1D and a 2D model based on the Shallow Water Equations(SWE) for dam-break wave propagation in alpine regions.The 1D model takes advantage of a topographic toolkit that includes an algorithm for pre-processing the Digital Elevation Model(DEM) and of a novel criterion for the automatic cross-section space refinement.The 2D model is FLO-2D,a commercial software widely used for flood routing in mountain areas.In order to verify the predictive effectiveness of these numerical models,the test case of the Cancano dam-break has been recovered from the historical study of De Marchi(1945),which provides a unique laboratory data set concerning the consequences of the potential collapse of the former Cancano dam(Northern Italy).The measured discharge hydrograph at the dam also provides the data to test a simplified method recently proposed for the characterization of the hydrograph following a sudden dam-break. 相似文献
The multi-disciplinary work described in the paper was aimed at analyzing and predicting the cyclical ground surface movements induced by underground gas storage (UGS) activities in a depleted gas field located in the Po Plain (Italy). The field has been operated as a storage facility for nearly three decades. Currently, the possibility of delta-pressuring the reservoir (i.e. to increase the maximum operating pressure above the initial reservoir pressure) to enhance the storage performance is being considered. Significant information was collected over time: 2/3D seismic surveys, geological and sedimentological studies, 60+ logged wells, geotechnical lab tests and 50+ years of production history and monitoring were available for the development of a fully integrated static–dynamic–geomechanical analysis. The mechanical aspects of the study are the focus of this paper. The data coming from different sources at different scales were analysed and integrated to set up and characterize a 3D finite element method mechanical model to calculate the surface movements induced by UGS activity by adopting an elasto-plastic constitutive law. The model was then calibrated via a back analysis approach, i.e. the model parameters were fine-tuned so that the simulated subsidence/uplift would compare satisfactorily with the ground movements collected over nearly 10 years of monitoring via interferometric synthetic aperture radar analysis in the region under investigation. Eventually, the calibrated model was used as a forecasting tool for subsidence evaluation under different future storage strategies, including delta-pressuring conditions. Results proved that no significant subsidence is expected even if the maximum operating pressure reached 120 % of the initial formation pressure. 相似文献
The risk management of rainfall-induced landslides requires reliable rainfall thresholds to issue early warning alerts. The practical application of these thresholds often leads to misclassifications, either false negative or false positive, which induce costs for the society. Since missed-alarm (false negative) and false-alarm (false positive) cost may be significantly different, it is necessary to find an optimal threshold that accounts for and minimises such costs, tuning the false-alarm and missed-alarm rates. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to develop cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds, and we also analyse several factors that produce uncertainty, such as the accuracy of rainfall intensity values at landslide location, the time of occurrence, the minimum rainfall amount to define the non-triggering event, and the variability of cost scenarios. Starting from a detailed mapping of landslides that occurred during five large-scale rainfall events in the Italian Central Alps, we first developed rainfall threshold curves with a ROC-based approach by using both rain gauge and bias-adjusted weather radar data. Then, based on a reference cost scenario in which we quantified several cost items for both missed alarms and false alarms, we developed cost-sensitive rainfall threshold curves by using cost-curve approach (Drummond and Holte 2000). Finally, we studied the sensitivity of cost items. The study confirms how important is the information regarding rainfall intensity at the landslide site for the development of rainfall thresholds. Although the use of bias-corrected radar strongly improves these values, a large uncertainty related to the exact time of landslide occurrence still remains, negatively affecting the analysis. Accounting for the different missed-alarm and false-alarm misclassification costs is important because different combinations of these costs make an increase or decrease of the rainfall thresholds convenient. In our reference cost scenario, the most convenient threshold is lower than ROC-based thresholds because it seeks to minimise the number of missed alarms, whereas the missed-alarm costs are almost seven times greater than false-alarm costs. However, for different cost scenarios, threshold may vary significantly, as much as half an order of magnitude.
Natural Hazards - This paper shows a detailed, advanced procedure to implement cost–benefit analyses (CBAs) in order to assess the effectiveness of flood mitigation measures. The town of Lodi... 相似文献
Although general trends in transgressive to highstand sedimentary evolution of river‐mouth coastlines are well‐known, the details of the turnaround from retrogradational (typically estuarine) to aggradational–progradational (typically coastal/deltaic) stacking patterns are not fully resolved. This paper examines the middle to late Holocene eustatic highstand succession of the Po Delta: its stratigraphic architecture records a complex pattern of delta outbuilding and coastal progradation that followed eustatic stabilization, since around 7·7 cal kyr bp . Sedimentological, palaeoecological (benthic foraminifera, ostracods and molluscs) and compositional criteria were used to characterize depositional conditions and sediment‐dispersal pathways within a radiocarbon‐dated chronological framework. A three‐stage progradation history was reconstructed. First, as soon as eustasy stabilized (7·7 to 7·0 cal kyr bp ), rapid bay‐head delta progradation (ca 5 m year?1), fed mostly by the Po River, took place in a mixed, freshwater and brackish estuarine environment. Second, a dominantly aggradational parasequence set of beach‐barrier deposits in the lower highstand systems tract (7·0 to 2·0 cal kyr bp ) records the development of a shallow, wave‐dominated coastal system fed alongshore, with elongated, modestly crescent beaches (ca 2·5 m year?1). Third, in the last 2000 years, the development of faster accreting and more rapidly prograding (up to ca 15 m year?1) Po delta lobes occurred into 30 m deep waters (upper highstand systems tract). This study documents the close correspondence of sediment character with stratal distribution patterns within the highstand systems tract. Remarkable changes in sediment characteristics, palaeoenvironments and direction of sediment transport occur across a surface named the ‘A–P surface’. This surface demarcates a major shift from dominantly aggradational (lower highstand systems tract) to fully progradational (upper highstand systems tract) parasequence stacking. In the Po system, this surface also reflects evolution from a wave‐dominated to river‐dominated deltaic system. Identifying the A–P surface through detailed palaeoecological and compositional data can help guide interpretation of highstand systems tracts in the rock record, especially where facies assemblages and their characteristic geometries are difficult to discern from physical sedimentary structures alone. 相似文献
This paper presents a new probabilistic physically-based computational model (called PG_TRIGRS) for the probabilistic analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazard at a regional scale. The model is based on the deterministic approach implemented in the original TRIGRS code, developed by Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 02–424, 2002) and Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 08–1159, 2008). Its key innovative features are: (a) the application of Ordinary Kriging for the estimation of the spatial distributions of the first two statistical moments of the probability density functions of the relevant soil properties over the entire area, based on limited available information gathered from available information from limited site investigation campaigns, and (b) the use of Rosenblueth’s Point Estimate method as a more efficient alternative to the classical Monte Carlo method for the reliability analysis performed at the single-cell level to obtain the probability of failure associated to a given rainfall event. The application of the PG_TRIGRS code to a selected study area located in the Umbria Region for different idealized but realistic rainfall scenarios has demonstrated the computational efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed methodology, assessed by comparing predicted landslide densities with available field observations reported by the IFFI project. In particular, while the model might fail to identify all individual landslide events, its predictions are remarkably good in identifying the areas of higher landslide density. 相似文献