Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*     

Dryer  M.  Fry  C.D.  Sun  W.  Deehr  C.  Smith  Z.  Akasofu  S.-I.  Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867  相似文献   

EFFECT OF LIGHT INTENSITY ON THE TOTAL LIPID AND FATTY ACID COMPOSITION OF SIX STRAINS OF MARINE DIATOMS     

梁英麦康森  孙世春于道展 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2001,19(3):249-254

The effect of light intensity ( 1500 Ix and 5000 Ix) on the total lipid and fatty acid composition of six strains of marine diatoms Cylindrotheca fusiformis (B211 ), Phaeodactylum tricornutum (Bl14, Bl18 and B221) Nitzschia closterium (B222) and Chaetoceros gracilis (B13) was investigated.The total lipids of B13, Bl14, and B211 grown at 5000 Ix were lower than those grown at 1500 Ix. No evident changes were observed in Bl18, B221 and B222. Fatty acid composition changed considerably at different light intensity although no consistent correlation between the relative proportion of a single FA and light intensity. The major fatty acids of the 6 strains were 14:0, 16:0, 16:l(n- 7) and 20:5(n-3) . Cylindrothecafusiformis had high percentage of 20:4n - 6 (9.2 - 10.9% ) . The total polyunsaturated fatty acid /rl all 6 strains decreased with increasing light intensity. The percentage of the highly unsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) decreased with increasing light intensity in all strains except Chaetoceros gracilis.  相似文献   

广东省拖网网囊调查     

杨吝  张旭丰  孙典荣  谭永光 《广东海洋大学学报》2001,21(4):22-26

为实施中华人民共和国国家标准《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》,对广东省范围内拖网网囊现状进行摸底调查,结果表明,广东省沿海拖网渔船现用网囊网目尺寸(内径)在16.7～35.2 mm范围内,总体平均为27 mm,均未能达到1989年国家技术监督局发布的中华人民共和国国家标准--《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》--内径39 mm.  相似文献   

Urban tourism research methodology     

Tao Wei  Zhong Wen-hui  Hong Yan 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2005,15(2):173-178

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Force-free magnetic fields on curvilinear coordinate surfaces     

Chung-Ming Ko  Ing-Guey Jiang 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,245(1):117-129

To seek nonlinear solutions of force-free magnetic fields, some symmetries or approximations are usually invoked. We consider magnetic fields lying on coordinate surfaces of an orthogonal curvilinear coordinate system. We conclude that only fields on parallel planes or spherical shells can be expressed in the form provided by Low in 1980s. These force-free fields are stable against small perturbations with rigid boundaries. Fields on cylindrical shells are also considered.  相似文献   

陕西秦巴山区农业自然资源开发利用     

刘胤汉  陆立新 《山地学报》1990,(1)

农业自然资源据其在农业利用过程中的地位可分为两类:一类是生成农业自然资源的环境,另一类为可资直接利用的自然生成物(即狭义的农业自然资源)。陕西秦巴山区自然环境的主要特点是:复合山体高峻庞大,地跨暖温带和北亚热带,垂直分异明显。区内有:森林、草场、野生生物、林特产与农作物等多种农业自然资源。据此,提出了本区农业自然资源的开发利用途径。  相似文献   

现代天文选址中的视宁度（Ⅱ）     

仇朴章  刘忠 《天文学进展》1996,14(3):175-180

在文献」１「４ 基础上，根据近年文选址实践中提出的问题，先进一步讨论了大气相干直径和时间的的物理和意义，然后强调了自由大气湍流的天文成像效应及选址中进行研究和测量的重要性。最后对差分像运动方法测量视宁度的定标和系统误差等问题作了分析。  相似文献   

Energy flow in Branchiura sowerbyi (Oligochaeta: tubificidae) in a shallow macrophyte-dominated lake, Biandantang Lake     

Yan Yunjun  Liang Yanling 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2004,22(4):403-407

The energy flow ofBranchiura sowerbyi was studied for the first time in China in a shallow macrophytic lake, Biandantang Lake, Hubei Province. The energy flow was calculated from the measurement of flesh production (12.5241kJ/m²a), egestion (517.7302kJ/m²a), metabolism (38.3273 kJ/m²a), and excretion (4.3798kJ/m²a). The net growth efficiency of the species is about 22.7%, which accords well with the generally reported value for oligochaetes. In addition, the relationship between starvation respiration (R, mgO₂/ind·d), wet weight (Ww, mg) and temperature (T, °C) were also measured, with the regression function beingR=0.008Ww^0.736 e^0.050T. Project supported by NSFC (30270278, 3960019), the foundation of the government of Hubei Province (No. 2000J109), and the foundation of Ecological Station, CAS in the Institute of Hydrobiology.  相似文献   

X-shaped radio galaxies as observational evidence for the interaction of supermassive binary black holes and accretion disc at parsec scale     

F. K. Liu 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,347(4):1357-1369

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桐柏县固庙—新集1：20万金银异常评价方法及效果     

韩存强  年平国 《河南国土资源》1996,(1)

随着河南区域化探扫面工作的结束，异常评价是摆在我们面前的当务之急。近年来，随着地质工作的不断深入，我们在异常评价程序及方法上作了一些探索，下面以桐柏县固庙—新集１：２０万金银异常评价方法及效果为例，重点加以讨论。  相似文献