Northward migration under a changing climate: a case study of blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica)     

Johanna Desprez  Basil V. Iannone III  Peilin Yang  Christopher M. Oswalt  Songlin Fei 《Climatic change》2014,126(1-2):151-162

Species are predicted to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change. Region-wide, empirically-based studies, however, are still limited to support these predictions. We used a model tree species, blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica), to study climate-induced range shift. Data collected from two separate sampling periods (1980s and 2007) by the USDA’s Forestry and Inventory Analysis (FIA) Program were used to investigate changes in abundance and dominance, and shifts in distribution, of blackgum in four ecoregions of the eastern United States. Our results indicated new recruitment of blackgum in the northern portion of its range, along with increases in both density and annual rates of change in importance value (IV). Conversely, declines in recruitment were found in the southern portion of blackgum’s range, along with decreases in density and IV. The center portion of blackgum’s range had mixed patterns of change (i.e., both increases and decreases) throughout. A northward range expansion was also detected by comparing blackgum’s historic range to where it was detected during our two more-recent sampling periods. Our findings suggest that blackgum is migrating north in response to climate change. Our study also suggests two broader implications about tree migration patterns in response to climate change: (1) species can respond to changing climate in relatively short time periods, at least for generalist species such as blackgum, and (2) climate-induced vegetation dynamic patterns can be detected at the regional level, but are inherently complex.  相似文献   

From Headwaters to Coast: Influence of Human Activities on Water Quality of the Potomac River Estuary     

Suzanne B. Bricker  Karen C. Rice  Owen P. Bricker III 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2014,20(2-3):291-323

The natural aging process of Chesapeake Bay and its tributary estuaries has been accelerated by human activities around the shoreline and within the watershed, increasing sediment and nutrient loads delivered to the bay. Riverine nutrients cause algal growth in the bay leading to reductions in light penetration with consequent declines in sea grass growth, smothering of bottom-dwelling organisms, and decreases in bottom-water dissolved oxygen as algal blooms decay. Historically, bay waters were filtered by oysters, but declines in oyster populations from overfishing and disease have led to higher concentrations of fine-sediment particles and phytoplankton in the water column. Assessments of water and biological resource quality in Chesapeake Bay and tributaries, such as the Potomac River, show a continual degraded state. In this paper, we pay tribute to Owen Bricker’s comprehensive, holistic scientific perspective using an approach that examines the connection between watershed and estuary. We evaluated nitrogen inputs from Potomac River headwaters, nutrient-related conditions within the estuary, and considered the use of shellfish aquaculture as an in-the-water nutrient management measure. Data from headwaters, nontidal, and estuarine portions of the Potomac River watershed and estuary were analyzed to examine the contribution from different parts of the watershed to total nitrogen loads to the estuary. An eutrophication model was applied to these data to evaluate eutrophication status and changes since the early 1990s and for comparison to regional and national conditions. A farm-scale aquaculture model was applied and results scaled to the estuary to determine the potential for shellfish (oyster) aquaculture to mediate eutrophication impacts. Results showed that (1) the contribution to nitrogen loads from headwater streams is small (about 2 %) of total inputs to the Potomac River Estuary; (2) eutrophic conditions in the Potomac River Estuary have improved in the upper estuary since the early 1990s, but have worsened in the lower estuary. The overall system-wide eutrophication impact is high, despite a decrease in nitrogen loads from the upper basin and declining surface water nitrate nitrogen concentrations over that period; (3) eutrophic conditions in the Potomac River Estuary are representative of Chesapeake Bay region and other US estuaries; moderate to high levels of nutrient-related degradation occur in about 65 % of US estuaries, particularly river-dominated low-flow systems such as the Potomac River Estuary; and (4) shellfish (oyster) aquaculture could remove eutrophication impacts directly from the estuary through harvest but should be considered a complement—not a substitute—for land-based measures. The total nitrogen load could be removed if 40 % of the Potomac River Estuary bottom was in shellfish cultivation; a combination of aquaculture and restoration of oyster reefs may provide larger benefits.  相似文献   

Improved hydrograph prediction through subsurface characterization: conditional stochastic hillslope simulations     

Steven B. Meyerhoff  Reed M. Maxwell  Wendy D. Graham  John L. Williams III 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(6):1329-1343

Subsurface heterogeneity is one of the largest sources of uncertainty associated with saturated hydraulic conductivity. Recent work has demonstrated that uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity can impart significant uncertainty in runoff generation processes and surface-water flow. Here, the role of site characterization in reducing hydrograph prediction bias and uncertainty is demonstrated. A fully integrated hydrologic model is used to conduct two sets of stochastic, transient simulation experiments comprising different overland flow mechanisms: Dunne and Hortonian. Conditioning hydraulic conductivity fields using values drawn from a simulated synthetic control case are shown to reduce both mean bias and variance in an ensemble of conditional hydrograph predictions when compared with the control case. The ensemble simulations show a greater reduction in uncertainty in the hydrographs for Hortonian flow. The conditional simulations predict surface ponding and surface pressure distributions with reduced mean error and reduced root mean square error compared with unconditional simulations. Uncertainty reduction in Hortonian and Dunne flow cases demonstrates different temporal signals, with more substantial reduction achieved for Hortonian flow.  相似文献   

Ascent and eruption of a lunar high-titanium magma as inferred from the petrology of the 74001/2 drill core     

Catherine M. WEITZ  Malcolm J. RUTHERFORD  James W. HEAD III  David S. McKAY 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1999,34(4):527-540

Abstract— An analysis of the orange glasses and crystallized beads from the 68 cm deep 74001/2 core has been conducted to understand the processes occurring during ascent and eruption of the Apollo 17 orange glass magma. Equilibrium between melt and metal blebs (Fe₈₅Ni₁₄Co₁) within the core, along with Cr contents in olivine phenocrysts, suggest there was an oxidation of C and a reduction of the melt at an O fugacity of IW-1.3 and 1320 °C to form CO gas at 200 bars or ～4 km depth. This was followed by development of more oxidized conditions during ascent. Also during ascent, there was formation of euhedral, homogeneous Fo₈₁ olivine crystals and spinel crystals with higher Al and Mg contents than the smaller spinels in the crystallized beads. Both the metal blebs and Al-rich spinels were trapped inside the Fo₈₁ olivine phenocrysts as they grew prior to eruption. The composition of the orange glasses are homogeneous throughout the core, except for a few distinct glasses at the top that appear to have been mixed in by micrometeorite reworking. A few glassy melt inclusions of orange glass composition trapped in the Fo₈₁ phenocrysts contain 600 ± 100 ppm S and ～50 ppm Cl compared to the 200 ppm S and 50 ppm Cl in the orange glass melt when quenched. These inclusions therefore document the addition of 400 ppm S to the CO-rich volcanic gas during the eruption. The size and distribution of different volcanic beads in the Apollo 17 deposit indicate a mode of eruption in which the orange glasses and partially crystallized beads formed further away from the volcanic vent where cooling rates were faster. Progressively larger and more numerous crystals in the black beads reflect slower cooling rates at higher optical densities in the volcanic plume. The development of a brown texture in the orange glasses at the bottom of the core, where the black beads dominate, is interpreted to result from devitrification by subsolidus heating either as the orange glasses fell back through the hot plume or after deposition on the surface. The change from domination by orange glasses to black beads in the core probably reflects a decrease in gas content over time, which consequently would increase the plume optical density and favor slower cooling rates.  相似文献   

LAND-USE IMPACT ON WATERSHED RESPONSE: THE INTEGRATION OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING AND GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS     

WILLIAM W. DOE III  BAHRAM SAGHAFIAN  PIERRE Y. JULIEN 《水文研究》1996,10(11):1503-1511

The integration of a two-dimensional, raster-based rainfall–runoff model, CASC2D, with a raster geographical information system (GIS), GRASS, offers enhanced capabilities for analysing the hydrological impact under a variety of land management scenarios. The spatially varied components of the watershed, such as slope, soil texture, surface roughness and land-use disturbance, were characterized in GRASS at a user-specified grid cell resolution for input into the CASC2D model. CASC2D is a raster-based, single-event rainfall–runoff model that divides the watershed into grid cell elements and simulates the hydrological processes of infiltration, overland flow and channel flow in response to distributed rainfall precipitation. The five-step integration of CASC2D and GRASS demonstrates the potential for analysing spatially and temporally varied hydrological processes within a 50 square mile semi-arid watershed. By defining possible land-use disturbance scenarios for the watershed, a variety of rainfall–runoff events were simulated to determine the changes in watershed response under varying disturbance and rainfall conditions. Additionally, spatially distributed infiltration outputs derived from the simulations were analysed in GRASS to determine the variability of hydrological change within the watershed. Grid cell computational capabilities in GRASS allow the user to combine the scenario simulation outputs with other distributed watershed parameters to develop complex maps depicting potential areas of hydrological sensitivity. This GIS–hydrological model integration provides valuable spatial information to researchers and managers concerned with the study and effects of land-use on hydrological response.  相似文献