How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jason Lowe  Elke Stehfest  Laila Gohar  Andries F. Hof  Chris Hope  Rachel Warren  Malte Meinshausen  Gian-Kasper Plattner 《Climatic change》2011,104(2):255-285

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.  相似文献   

Canary in a coal mine: perceptions of climate change risks and response options among Canadian mine operations     

James D. Ford  Tristan Pearce  Jason Prno  Frank Duerden  Lea Berrang Ford  Tanya R. Smith  Maude Beaumier 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):399-415

A survey documenting how climate change is perceived and responded to by Canadian mine operations was administered to a random sample of practitioners working at mine sites across Canada. Key findings include: (1) Mines are sensitive to climatic hazards; (2) There is concern about climate change among mine practitioners, but the majority have not yet noticed climate change to be affecting operations; (3) Future climate change is expected to have negative impacts for mine operations; (4) Mines are responding to climate change mainly through efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also through adaptation, although to a lesser degree; and (5) Knowledge of future climate change projections and impacts is limited, potentially constraining understanding of the nature of climate change risks. The survey compliments previous work documenting perceptions among upper level management on climate change in the Canadian mining industry. The results from both surveys are largely consistent, establishing that the mining sector perceives climate change as an emerging risk and is developing response options, but needs to invest more time and resources for adaptation to what are inevitable changes in climate. The results support the need for targeted in-depth research to assess the vulnerability of mining to climate change and to evaluate response options.  相似文献   

The Impact of Agricultural Practices in China on Land-Atmosphere Interactions     

XU Xingkui  Jason K. LEVY 《大气科学进展》2011,28(4):821-831

Human-induced land use changes and the resulting alterations in vegetation features are major but poorly recognized drivers of regional climatic patterns.In order to investigate the impacts of anthropogenically-induced seasonal vegetation cover changes on regional climate in China,harmonic analysis is applied to 1982-2000 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVVHRR)-derived normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) time series(ten day interval data).For two climatic divisions of South China,it is shown that the first harmonic term is in phase with air temperature,while the second and third harmonics are in phase with agricultural cultivation.The Penman-Monteith Equation and the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration(CRAE) model suggest that monthly mean evapotranspiration is out of phase with temperature and precipitation in regions with signiffcant second or third harmonics.Finally,seasonal vegetation cover changes associated with agricultural cultivation are identiffed:for cropped areas,the temperature and precipitation time series have a single maximum value,while the monthly evapotranspiration time series has a bimodal distribution.It is hypothesized that multi-cropping causes the land surface albedo to sharply increase during harvesting,thereby altering the energy distribution ratio and contributing to observed seasonal vegetation cover changes.  相似文献   

中国区域蒸发潜力不均性发展趋势及其气候成因分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

徐兴奎  LEVY Jason K 《地球物理学报》2011,54(3):634-642

气象台站20 cm蒸发皿观测资料自然正交分解显示,1980～2000年中国区域气温显著增加期间,长江中游至河套、东北等区域地表年蒸发潜力呈增加趋势;相反在长江以南、东部和西南等地区年蒸发潜力呈下降趋势.辐射观测资料分析结果表明,自20世纪70年代中国区域太阳入射能整体呈下降趋势,因此对于蒸发潜力增加的地区,太阳辐射产生...  相似文献   

Global distributions of Fe,Al, Cu,and Zn contained in Earth's derma layers     

Jason N. Rauch 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2011

To improve the usefulness and accuracy of modeling Earth's anthrobiogeochemical metal cycles, global maps at approximately 1° × 1° are produced of the concentrations and masses of Fe, Al, Cu, and Zn contained in continental sediments and soils. The maps generated utilize inverse distance weighting (IDW) and cokriging to generate new estimates for geospatially weighted mean global concentrations for these metallic micronutrients. Sediment metal concentration maps are generated from IDW of sediment samples; global soil maps are produced via cokriging upon an underlying parent rock dataset composed of both surface bedrock and sediment samples. Derived are independent estimates for the global mean concentrations in continental sediments (Fe = 3.1 wt.%, Al = 6.1 wt.%, Cu = 45 μg/g, Zn = 86 μg/g) and soils (Fe = 2.5 wt.%, Al = 3.9 wt.%, Cu = 17 μg/g, Zn = 50 μg/g). While continental sediment concentrations for Cu are within the range of previous estimates, Zn concentrations are relatively higher, ~ 20 μg/g above previous estimates. Fe and Al are slightly depleted (~ 1 wt.%) in continental sediments relative to previous estimates, likely ascribable to sampling bias and error inherent in the comparative methodologies. Besides an estimated global mean, metal concentrations in soils are also broken down by FAO soil group. Metal masses in sediments and soils remain within 30% of previous, non-spatial estimates. These maps also illustrate the discernable spatial variability across the Earth's surface. Despite data gaps, maps of metal mass show regional patterns such as the high quantities of Al in the soils and biomass of the Amazonia and Congo regions. Concentrations of metals are relatively high in the anthrosols of China. Finally, this analysis highlights those areas for which generating and providing publically available geochemical data should be prioritized. For instance, gypsisols, lixisols, and nitisols have little to no analytical data available on metal contents. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the most poorly constrained soil metal concentrations occur in the thick, old tropical soils of central Africa and the anthrosols of eastern China.  相似文献   

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources     

Charles A. Stock  Michael A. Alexander  Nicholas A. Bond  Keith M. Brander  William W.L. Cheung  Enrique N. Curchitser  Thomas L. Delworth  John P. Dunne  Stephen M. Griffies  Melissa A. Haltuch  Jonathan A. Hare  Anne B. Hollowed  Patrick Lehodey  Simon A. Levin  Jason S. Link  Kenneth A. Rose  Ryan R. Rykaczewski  Jorge L. Sarmiento  Ronald J. Stouffer  Franklin B. Schwing  Francisco E. Werner 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,88(1-4):1-27

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.  相似文献   

Analysis of southeast Australian zooplankton observations of 1938-42 using synoptic oceanographic conditions     

Mark E. Baird  Jason D. EverettIain M. Suthers 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2011,58(5):699-711

The research vessel Warreen obtained 1742 planktonic samples along the continental shelf and slope of southeast Australia from 1938-42, representing the earliest spatially and temporally resolved zooplankton data from Australian marine waters. In this paper, Warreen observations along the southeast Australian seaboard from 28°S to 38°S are interpreted based on synoptic meteorological and oceanographic conditions and ocean climatologies. Meteorological conditions are based on the NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Project; oceanographic conditions use Warreen hydrological observations, and the ocean climatology is the CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas. The Warreen observations were undertaken in waters on average 0.45 °C cooler than the climatological average, and included the longest duration El Niño of the 20th century. In northern New South Wales (NSW), week time-scale events dominate zooplankton response. In August 1940 an unusual winter upwelling event occurred in northern NSW driven by a stronger than average East Australian Current (EAC) and anomalous northerly winds that resulted in high salp and larvacean abundance. In January 1941 a strong upwelling event between 28° and 33°S resulted in a filament of upwelled water being advected south and alongshore, which was low in zooplankton biovolume. In southern NSW a seasonal cycle in physical and planktonic characteristics is observed. In January 1941 the poleward extension of the EAC was strong, advecting more tropical tunicate species southward. Zooplankton abundance and distribution on the continental shelf and slope are more dependent on weekly to monthly timescales on local oceanographic and meteorological conditions than continental-scale interannual trends. The interpretation of historical zooplankton observations of the waters off southeast Australia for the purpose of quantifying anthropogenic impacts will be improved with the use of regional hindcasts of synoptic ocean and atmospheric weather that can explain some of the physically forced natural variability.  相似文献   

Lunar atmospheric H₂ detections by the LAMP UV spectrograph on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter     

S. Alan Stern  Jason C. Cook  Jean -Yves Chaufray  Paul D. Feldman  G. Randall Gladstone  Kurt D. Retherford 《Icarus》2013

We report on the detection of H₂ as seen in our analysis of twilight observations of the lunar atmosphere observed by the LAMP instrument aboard NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Using a large amount of data collected on the lunar atmosphere between September 2009 and March 2013, we have detected and identified, the presence of H₂ in the native lunar atmosphere, for the first time. We derive a surface density for H₂ of 1.2 ± 0.4 × 10³ cm⁻³ at 120 K. This is about 10 times smaller than originally predicted, and several times smaller than previous upper limits from the Apollo era data.  相似文献   

A search for amino acids and nucleobases in the Martian meteorite Roberts Massif 04262 using liquid chromatography‐mass spectrometry     

Michael P. Callahan  Aaron S. Burton  Jamie E. Elsila  Eleni M. Baker  Karen E. Smith  Daniel P. Glavin  Jason P. Dworkin 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(5):786-795

The investigation into whether Mars contains signatures of past or present life is of great interest to science and society. Amino acids and nucleobases are compounds that are essential for all known life on Earth and are excellent target molecules in the search for potential Martian biomarkers or prebiotic chemistry. Martian meteorites represent the only samples from Mars that can be studied directly in the laboratory on Earth. Here, we analyzed the amino acid and nucleobase content of the shergottite Roberts Massif (RBT) 04262 using liquid chromatography‐mass spectrometry. We did not detect any nucleobases above our detection limit in formic acid extracts; however, we did measure a suite of protein and nonprotein amino acids in hot‐water extracts with high relative abundances of β‐alanine and γ‐amino‐n‐butyric acid. The presence of only low (to absent) levels of several proteinogenic amino acids and a lack of nucleobases suggest that this meteorite fragment is fairly uncontaminated with respect to these common biological compounds. The distribution of straight‐chained amine‐terminal n‐ω‐amino acids in RBT 04262 resembled those previously measured in thermally altered carbonaceous meteorites (Burton et al. 2012; Chan et al. 2012). A carbon isotope ratio of ?24‰ ± 6‰ for β‐alanine in RBT 04262 is in the range of reduced organic carbon previously measured in Martian meteorites (Steele et al. 2012). The presence of n‐ω‐amino acids may be due to a high temperature Fischer‐Tropsch‐type synthesis during igneous processing on Mars or impact ejection of the meteorites from Mars, but more experimental data are needed to support these hypotheses.  相似文献   

Composition and petrology of HED polymict breccias: The regolith of (4) Vesta     

David W. Mittlefehldt  Jason S. Herrin  Julie E. Quinn  Stanley A. Mertzman  Julia A. Cartwright  Karen R. Mertzman  Zhan X. Peng 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(11):2105-2134

We have done petrologic and compositional studies on a suite of polymict eucrites and howardites to better understand regolith processes on their parent asteroid, which we accept is (4) Vesta. Taking into account noble gas results from companion studies, we interpret five howardites to represent breccias assembled from the true regolith: Elephant Moraine (EET) 87513, Grosvenor Mountains (GRO) 95535, GRO 95602, Lewis Cliff (LEW) 85313, and Meteorite Hills (MET) 00423. We suggest that EET 87503 is paired with EET 87513, and thus is also regolithic. Pecora Escarpment (PCA) 02066 is dominated by melt‐matrix clasts, which may have been formed from true regolith by impact melting. These meteorites display a range in eucrite:diogenite mixing ratio from 55:45 to 76:24. There is no correlation between degree of regolith character and Ni content. The Ni contents of howardite, eucrite, and diogenites (HEDs) are mostly controlled by the distribution of coarse chondritic clasts and metal grains, which in some cases resulted from individual, low‐velocity accretion events, rather than extensive regolith gardening. Trace element compositions indicate that the mafic component of HED polymict breccias is mostly basalt similar to main‐group eucrites; Stannern‐trend basaltic debris is less common. Pyroxene compositions show that some trace element‐rich howardites contain abundant debris from evolved basalts, and that cumulate gabbro debris is present in some breccias. The scale of heterogeneity varies considerably; regolithic howardite EET 87513 is more homogeneous than fragmental howardite Queen Alexandra Range (QUE) 97001. Individual samples of a given howardite can have different compositions even at roughly 5 g masses, indicating that obtaining representative meteorite compositions requires multiple or large samples.  相似文献