Bayesian posterior predictive return levels for environmental extremes     

Lee?FawcettEmail author  Amy?C.?Green 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(8):2233-2252

A key aim of most extreme value analyses is the estimation of the r-year return level; the wind speed, or sea-surge, or rainfall level (for example), we might expect to see once (on average) every r years. There are compelling arguments for working within the Bayesian setting here, not least the natural extension to prediction via the posterior predictive distribution. Indeed, for practitioners the posterior predictive return level has been cited as perhaps the most useful point summary from a Bayesian analysis of extremes, and yet little is known of the properties of this statistic. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of predictive return levels relative to their estimative counterparts obtained directly from the return level posterior distribution; in particular, we make comparisons with the return level posterior mean, mode and 95% credible upper bound. Differences between the predictive return level and standard summaries from the return level posterior distribution, for wind speed extremes observed in the UK, motivates this work. A large scale simulation study then reveals the superiority of the predictive return level over the other posterior summaries in many cases of practical interest.  相似文献   

Uncertainty analysis of urban sewer system using spatial simulation of radar rainfall fields: New York City case study     

Ali?HamidiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  David?J.?Farnham  Reza?Khanbilvardi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(8):2293-2308

The goal of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of an urban sewer system’s response under various rainfall and infrastructure scenarios by applying a recently developed nonparametric copula-based simulation approach to extreme rainfall fields. The approach allows for Monte Carlo simulation of multiple variables with differing marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure. The independent and identically distributed daily extreme rainfall events of the corresponding urban area, extracted from nationwide high resolution radar data stage IV, are the inputs of the spatial simulator. The simulated extreme rainfall fields were used to calculate excess runoff using the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s approach. New York City is selected as a case study and the results highlight the importance of preserving the spatial dependence of rainfall fields between the grids, even for simplified hydrologic models. This study estimates the probability of combined sewer overflows under extreme rainfall events and identifies the most effective locations in New York City to install green infrastructure for detaining excess stormwater runoff. The results of this study are beneficial for planners working on stormwater management and the approach is broadly applicable because it does not rely on extensive sewer system information.  相似文献   

Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey     

S. Akkar  T. Azak  T. Çan  U. Çeken  M. B. Demircioğlu Tümsa  T. Y. Duman  M. Erdik  S. Ergintav  F. T. Kadirioğlu  D. Kalafat  Ö. Kale  R. F. Kartal  K. Kekovalı  T. Kılıç  S. Özalp  S. Altuncu Poyraz  K. Şeşetyan  S. Tekin  A. Yakut  M. T. Yılmaz  M. S. Yücemen  Ö. Zülfikar 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3197-3228

A review on the historical evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey is followed by summarizing the important aspects of the updated national probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Comparisons with the predecessor probabilistic seismic hazard maps as well as the implications on the national design codes conclude the paper.  相似文献   

Sedimentary and geochemical evidence of Eocene climate change in the Xining Basin,northeastern Tibetan Plateau     

Abu?Sadat?Md?Sayem  Zhengtang?GuoEmail author  Haibin?Wu  Chunxia?Zhang  Fan?Yang  Guoqiao?Xiao  Zhilin?He 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2018,61(9):1292-1305

The northeastern Tibetan Plateau began to grow during the Eocene and it is important to understand the climatic history of Asia during this period of so-called ‘doubthouse' conditions. However, despite major advances in the last few decades,the evolutionary history and possible mechanisms of Eocene climate change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau remain unclear.The Xining Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau contains a continuous sequence of Early to Late Eocene non-marine sediments which provides the opportunity to resolve long-term climate changes during this period. In this study, we report the results of analyses of lithofacies, sediment color and geochemistry of bulk samples collected from the Xijigou section of the Xining Basin. An abrupt lithofacies change between the Early(~52–40 Ma) and Late Eocene(~40–34 Ma) indicates a change in the depositional environment from a shallow lake to a playa lake in response to a significant climatic shift. During ~52–40 Ma,higher values of sediment redness(a*), redness/lightness(a*/L*) and higher modified Chemical Index of Weathering(CIW′)indicate a relatively warm and humid climate, while from ~40–34 Ma the lower values of a*, a*/L*and lower CIW′ imply subhumid to semi-arid climatic conditions. The paleoclimatic records indicate a long-term(~52–34 Ma) trend of decreasing chemical weathering, consistent with global climate change. An abrupt sharp excursion of the proxy records during ~42–40 Ma suggests a relatively brief warm interval, corresponding to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum(MECO). We suggest that global cooling substantially reduced humidity in inner Asia, resulting in sub-humid to semi-arid climatic conditions after 40 Ma in the Xining Basin, which may have been responsible for the long-term trend of decreasing chemical weathering during the Eocene.  相似文献   

2003年民乐-山丹6.1、5.8级地震灾害损失评估   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

马尔曼  石玉成  高晓明  何文贵 《地震工程学报》2007,29(1):64-68

2003年10月25日在甘肃省民乐-山丹交界处相继发生MS6.1和MS5.8地震,造成10人死亡、46人受伤,近5万人失去住所;村镇民用房屋、水利、生命线工程和学校、卫生院所等公共设施严重破坏。震后采用抽样调查、单项调查、填表调查核实的方法,取得了大量的实际资料,将灾区合理的划分为3个评估区,建立了每个评估区的每类建筑物的破坏比、损失比和基础数据资料,分10个专项进行统计分析,通过计算得出了本次地震灾害的经济损失结果。  相似文献   

Free polyamine content during algal bloom succession in the East China Sea in spring 2010     

刘艳  赵卫红  李彩艳  苗辉 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2017,35(1):215-223

We measured the concentrations and distribution of major polyamines(spermine, putrescine and spermidine) in seawater during successive spring algal blooms in an area of frequent harmful blooms in the East China Sea. Spermine, putrescine, and spermidine concentrations were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography and ranged from 1–64, 7–81, and 0–19 nmol/L. Spermine was present at the highest concentrations, followed by putrescine and spermidine. In late April, when a diatom bloom dominated by Skeletonema costatum dispersed, polyamine concentrations increased, presumably as a result of diatom decomposition. In early May, when a dinoflagellate bloom dominated by Prorocentrum donghaiense occurred, the polyamine concentration decreased from the level seen in late April. The abundant polyamines that decomposed and were released during the diatom bloom in late April may have promoted the growth of P. donghaiense, resulting in its dominance.  相似文献   

A first look at the effects of ionospheric signal bending on a globally processed GPS network     

Elizabeth J. Petrie  Matt A. King  Philip Moore  David A. Lavallée 《Journal of Geodesy》2010,84(8):491-499

This study provides a first attempt at quantifying potential signal bending effects on the GPS reference frame, coordinates and zenith tropospheric delays (ZTDs). To do this, we homogeneously reanalysed data from a global network of GPS sites spanning 14 years (1995.0–2009.0). Satellite, Earth orientation, tropospheric and ground station coordinate parameters were all estimated. We tested the effect of geometric bending and dTEC bending corrections, which were modelled at the observation level based, in part, on parameters from the International Reference Ionosphere 2007 model. Combined, the two bending corrections appear to have a minimal effect on site coordinates and ZTDs except for low latitude sites. Considering five days (DOY 301–305, 28 October–1 November 2001) near ionospheric maximum in detail, they affect mean ZTDs by up to ~1.7 mm at low latitudes, reducing to negligible levels at high latitudes. Examining the effect on coordinates in terms of power-spectra revealed the difference to be almost entirely white noise, with noise amplitude ranging from 0.3 mm (high latitudes) to 2.4 mm (low latitudes). The limited effect on station coordinates is probably due to the similarity in the elevation dependence of the bending term with that of tropospheric mapping functions. The smoothed z-translation from the GPS reference frame to ITRF2005 changes by less than 2 mm, though the effect combines positively with that from the second order ionospheric refractive index term. We conclude that, at the present time, and for most practical purposes, the geometric and dTEC bending corrections are probably negligible at current GPS/reference frame precisions.  相似文献   

一维连续导电剖面的反演问题          下载免费PDF全文

张莲海  梁子斌  周民都 《地震工程学报》2010,32(1):16-20

基于Schlumberger装置测得的视电阻率,在Coen理论的基础上对一维连续直流导电剖面的反演问题进行研究。分别给出了导电剖面是常函数、线性函数、幂函数、指数函数、分段函数情况下的精确数据和噪音数据反演结果。利用一个野外场地反演的例子,把利用该方法进行反演得到的连续模型和Inman得到的层状模型进行了相应的比较,发现该方法在处理实际场地数据也是有效的。  相似文献   

Climatic signals in lacustrine deposits of the Upper Yacoraite Formation,Western Argentina: Evidence from clay minerals,analcime, dolomite and fibrous calcite     

João Paulo B. Gomes  Rodrigo B. Bunevich  Sandra N. Tonietto  Daisy B. Alves  Julice F. Santos  Fiona F. Whitaker 《Sedimentology》2020,67(5):2282-2309

Authigenic clays are an important control on reservoir quality in lacustrine carbonates but remain challenging to predict. Lacustrine depositional systems respond to climatic variations in rainfall, surface runoff and groundwater input, and evaporation, and result in rapid and frequent changes in lake volume; this is expressed through changing water depth and shoreline position. In the upper portion of the Early Palaeocene Yacoraite Formation of the Salta Basin in Argentina, extensive lacustrine deposits were deposited during the sag phase of rifting. Prior high-resolution stratigraphic studies have suggested that climatic factors control microbial carbonate sequences within a ‘balanced fill’ lake, with variation in the lake level having a major influence on facies association changes. This study characterizes the evolution of facies and mineralogy within the Yacoraite Formation, focusing on the distribution of clay minerals, making a link between the high, medium and low-frequency sequence stratigraphic cycles. The low-frequency transgressive hemicycle of the upper portion of the Yacoraite Formation is comprised of abundant siliciclastic facies, suggesting a wetter period. Microbialites occurring in this interval are coarse-grained and agglutinated. Detrital clay minerals such as illite and chlorite and associated siliciclastic sediments were input to the lake during high-frequency transgressive periods. During high-frequency regressive hemicycles, sedimentation was dominated by carbonate facies with Ca-rich dolomite and the authigenic clays are comprised of chlorite/smectite mixed-layers. By contrast, the low frequency regressive hemicycle records fine-grained agglutinated microbialite with horizons of fibrous calcite, more stoichiometric dolomite, barite and authigenic magnesian smectite. This indicates elevated ion concentrations in the lake under intense evaporation during an arid period. Understanding the conditions that are favourable for formation and preservation of authigenic clays within the lacustrine environment can improve understanding of reservoir quality in comparable economically important deposits.  相似文献   

Determination of Radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr and Stable δ88/86SrSRM987 Isotope Values of Thirteen Mineral,Vegetal and Animal Reference Materials by DS‐TIMS     

Jean‐Michel Brazier  Anne‐Dsire Schmitt  Eric Pelt  Damien Lemarchand  Sophie Gangloff  Tho Tacail  Vincent Balter 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2020,44(2):331-348

This work presents new ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 isotopic values of thirteen mineral, vegetal and animal reference materials. Except for UB‐N, all our results are consistent with previously published data. Our results highlight intermediate precisions among the best presently published and a non‐significant systematic shift with the calculated δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 mean values for the three most analysed reference materials in the literature (i.e., IAPSO, BCR‐2 and JCp‐1). By comparison with the literature and between two distinct digestions, a significant bias of δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 values was highlighted for two reference materials (UB‐N and GS‐N). It has also been shown that digestion protocols (nitric and multi‐acid) have a moderate impact on the δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 isotopic values for the Jls‐1 reference materials suggesting that a nitric acid digestion of carbonate can be used without significant bias from partial digestion of non‐carbonate impurities. Different δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 values were measured after two independent Sr/matrix separations, according to the same protocol, for a fat‐rich organic reference material (BCR‐380R) and have been related to a potential post‐digestion heterogeneity. Finally, the δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 value differences measured between animal‐vegetal and between coral‐seawater reference materials agree with the previously published results, highlighting an Sr isotopic fractionation along the trophic chain and during carbonate precipitation.  相似文献