Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hee-Jeong Baek  Johan Lee  Hyo-Shin Lee  Yu-Kyung Hyun  ChunHo Cho  Won-Tae Kwon  Charline Marzin  Sun-Yeong Gan  Min-Ji Kim  Da-Hee Choi  Jonghwa Lee  Jaeho Lee  Kyung-On Boo  Hyun-Suk Kang  Young-Hwa Byun 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(5):603-618

We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1°C/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4°C/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5°C/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1°C/+4.6% for RCP8.5, respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3°C between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.  相似文献   

Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the Southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing     

Johan Malherbe  F. A. Engelbrecht  W. A. Landman 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):2867-2886

The conformal-cubic atmospheric model, a variable-resolution global model, is applied at high spatial resolution to perform simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa and over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The model is forced with the bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice of six coupled global climate models that contributed to Assessment Report 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All six simulations are for the period 1961–2100, under the A2 emission scenario. Projections for the latter part of the 21st century indicate a decrease in the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Africa, as well as a northward shift in the preferred landfall position of these systems over the southern African subcontinent. A concurrent increase in January to March rainfall is projected for northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania, with decreases projected further south over semi-arid areas such as the Limpopo River Basin where these systems make an important contribution as main cause of widespread heavy rainfall. It is shown that the projected changes in tropical cyclone attributes and regional rainfall occur in relation to changes in larger scale atmospheric temperature, pressure and wind profiles of the southern African region and adjacent oceans.  相似文献   

Urban green commons: Insights on urban common property systems   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Johan Colding  Stephan Barthel  Pim Bendt  Robbert Snep  Wim van der Knaap  Henrik Ernstson 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1039-1051

The aim of this paper is to shed new light on urban common property systems. We deal with urban commons in relation to urban green-space management, referring to them as urban green commons. Applying a property-rights analytic perspective, we synthesize information on urban green commons from three case-study regions in Sweden, Germany, and South Africa, and elaborate on their role for biodiversity conservation in urban settings, with a focus on business sites. Cases cover both formally established types of urban green commons and bottom-up emerged community-managed habitats. As our review demonstrates, the right to actively manage urban green space is a key characteristic of urban green commons whether ownership to land is in the private, public, the club realm domain, or constitutes a hybrid of these. We discuss the important linkages among urban common property systems, social–ecological learning, and management of ecosystem services and biodiversity. Several benefits can be associated with urban green commons, such as a reduction of costs for ecosystem management and as designs for reconnecting city-inhabitants to the biosphere. The emergence of urban green commons appears closely linked to dealing with societal crises and for reorganizing cities; hence, they play a key role in transforming cities toward more socially and ecologically benign environments. While a range of political questions circumscribe the feasibility of urban green commons, we discuss their usefulness in management of different types of urban habitats, their political justification and limitation, their potential for improved biodiversity conservation, and conditions for their emergence. We conclude by postulating some general policy advice.  相似文献   

Global climate policy and deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries     

Max Åhman  Lars J. Nilsson  Bengt Johansson 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):634-649

If we are to limit global warming to 2 °C, all sectors in all countries must reduce their emissions of GHGs to zero not later than 2060–2080. Zero-emission options have been less explored and are less developed in the energy-intensive basic materials industries than in other sectors. Current climate policies have not yet motivated major efforts to decarbonize this sector, and it has been largely protected from climate policy due to the perceived risks of carbon leakage and a focus on short-term reduction targets to 2020. We argue that the future global climate policy regime must develop along three interlinked and strategic lines to facilitate a deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries. First, the principle of common but differentiated responsibility must be reinterpreted to allow for a dialogue on fairness and the right to development in relation to industry. Second, a greater focus on the development, deployment and transfer of technology in this sector is called for. Third, the potential conflicts between current free trade regimes and motivated industrial policies for deep decarbonization must be resolved. One way forward is to revisit the idea of sectoral approaches with a broader scope, including not only emission reductions, but recognizing the full complexity of low-carbon transitions in energy-intensive industries. A new approach could engage industrial stakeholders, support technology research, development and demonstration and facilitate deployment through reducing the risk for investors. The Paris Agreement allows the idea of sectoral approaches to be revisited in the interests of reaching our common climate goals.

Policy relevance

Deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries will be necessary to meet the 2 °C target. This requires major innovation efforts over a long period. Energy-intensive industries face unique challenges from both innovation and technical perspectives due to the large scale of facilities, the character of their global markets and the potentially high mitigation costs. This article addresses these challenges and discusses ways in which the global climate policy framework should be developed after the Paris Agreement to better support transformative change in the energy-intensive industries.  相似文献   

Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement     

Maria Jernnäs  Jens Nilsson  Björn-Ola Linnér  Andreas Duit 《Climate Policy》2013,13(10):1239-1249

ABSTRACT

The continuous submission and scaling-up of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) constitutes a key feature of the Paris Agreement. In their NDCs, states propose governance mechanisms for implementation of climate action, in turn distinguishing appropriate roles for the state in climate governance. Clarity on Parties’ suggested roles for the state makes explicit assumptions on the premise of climate policy, in turn contributing to enhanced transparency in negotiations on the scaling-up of NDCs. This also speaks to ongoing debates on roles for the state in climate governance literature. This article identifies the governance mechanisms proposed by states in their NDCs and the roles for the state envisioned by those governance mechanisms, and also examines how cross-national patterns of roles for the state break or converge with conventional patterns of international politics. The analysis shows that states propose a plurality of roles, which to different extents may be complementary or conflictual. We conclude that income, region, and the Annexes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are important for understanding suggested roles for the state, but that there are nuances to be further explored. We argue that this paper has three key findings: i) a majority of states rely on market mechanisms to implement their NDCs while rules on implementation and assessment of market mechanisms are still an outstanding issue in the negotiations, meaning that resolving this issue will be essential; ii) the process for evaluating and assessing qualitative governance mechanisms needs to be specified; and iii) increased awareness of differing views on the state’s roles makes explicit different perspectives on what constitutes an ambitious and legitimate contribution to combating climate change.

Key policy insights

• A majority of states (> 75%) envision the state as regulator (creating and strengthening legislation), market facilitator (creating and maintaining market structures), or facilitator (creating more favourable material conditions for climate-friendly behaviour).

• Greater awareness of differing views on roles for the state can increase understanding of different perspectives on ambition and legitimacy of contributions, in turn facilitating trust in negotiations.

• A distinction between substantive and procedural qualitative governance mechanisms and their function and interaction would facilitate the stocktaking dialogues.

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On the influence of the freshwater supply on the Baltic Sea mean salinity     

Johan Rodhe  Peter Winsor 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2002,54(2):175-186

The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea mean salinity to climatic changes of the freshwater supply is analyzed. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is about 6‰. The low salinity is an effect of a large net freshwater supply and narrow and shallow connections with the North Sea. As a result of mixing in the entrance area, a large portion of the outflowing Baltic Sea water returns with the inflowing salty water and thus lowers the salinity of the Baltic Sea deep-water considerably. This recycling of the Baltic Sea water is a key process determining the salinity of today's Baltic Sea. The sensitivity of this recycling, and thus of the Baltic Sea salinity, to climatic changes in the freshwater supply is analyzed. A simple model is formulated for the variations of the Baltic Sea freshwater content. Historical data of the freshwater supply and the salinity in the Baltic Sea are used in the model to achieve an empirical expression relating variations of the recycling of Baltic Sea water to the variations of the freshwater supply. The recycling is found to be very sensitive to the freshwater supply. We find that an increase of freshwater supply of 30% is the level above which the Baltic Sea would turn into a lake. Recent climate modeling results suggest that river runoff to the Baltic Sea may increase dramatically in the future and thus possibly put the Baltic Sea into a new state.  相似文献   

Kamiokite,Fe2Mo3O8, a tetravalent molybdenum oxide: New data and occurrences     

Dr. Z. Johan  Dr. P. Picot 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1986,35(1):67-75

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INGRID: A near-infrared camera for the William Herschel Telescope     

Christopher Packham  Keith L. Thompson  Almudena Zurita  Johan H. Knapen  Ian Smail  Robert Greimel  Daniel F. M. Folha  Chris Benn  rew Humphrey  Rene Rutten  David Ciardi  Matthieu Bec  Richard Bingham  Simon Craig  Kevin Dee  Derek Ives  Paul Jolley  Peter Moore  Marti Pi i Puig  Simon Rees  Gordon Talbot  Sue Worswick 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,345(2):395-405

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Marine quality assessment by use of benthic species-abundance distributions: a proposed new protocol within the European Union Water Framework Directive   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Rosenberg R  Blomqvist M  C Nilsson H  Cederwall H  Dimming A 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,49(9-10):728-739

The aim of this study is to develop a new method for classification of marine benthic quality according to the European Union Water Framework Directive. Tolerance values to environmental disturbance were determined in an objective analysis for benthic species along the Swedish west coast by using 4676 samples from 257 stations. Based on a combination of the species tolerance values, abundance and diversity, a benthic quality index (BQI) was calculated for the assessment of environmental status at a particular station. The qualification of BQI was evaluated in relation to known spatial and temporal gradients of disturbance.  相似文献   

Novel particle method for modelling the episodic collapse of soft coastal bluffs     

Johan Vandamme  Qingping Zou 《Geomorphology》2012,138(1):295-305

This paper presents a new, novel, particle-based Bluff Morphology Model (BMM), and with it investigates the stability, collapse, and equilibrium position of soft coastal bluffs (cliffs). This model combines a multiple wedge displacement method with an adapted Weakly Compressible Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (WCSPH) method. At first, the wedge method is applied to compute the stability of the bluff. Once the critical failure mechanism of the bluff slope has been identified, and if the factor of safety for the mechanism is less than 1, the adapted WCSPH method is used to predict the failure movement and residual shape of the slope. The model is validated against benchmark test cases of bluff stability for purely frictional, purely cohesive, and mixed strength bluff materials including 2D static water tables. The model predictions give a good correlation with the expected values, with medium resolution models producing errors of typically less than 2.0%. In addition, the prediction of lateral movement of a surveyed cliff and the dynamic collapse of a vertical bluff are computed, and compare well with published literature.  相似文献