On the age calibration of the geomagnetic polarity timescale     

Pierre Agrinier  Yves Gallet  & Eric Lewin 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,137(1):81-90

Knowledge of the age of undated events is not null if a time-order relationship can be found among these events. The knowledge of such a time-ordered sequence can be formalized by using non-informative (uniform) prior probability densities for the ages of undated events and Bayes' theorem to introduce the time-order relationship condition. We show that the conditional probability densities of the ages of events of unknown age are given by various forms of Euler's beta distribution. These distributions yield an estimate of the probability for an undated event to occur in a given age interval.
  We use this method to propose appropriate probabilistic representations of our actual knowledge of the dating of the magnetic polarity reversals during the Cenozoic. These representations take into account the uncertainties arising from irregularities in accretion process and from the quality of a few calibration points. Both types of uncertainties generate large ambiguities in the age of magnetic reversals, which should be taken into consideration when the geomagnetic polarity timescale is used for dating purposes. We propose to use the entropy function to quantify these ambiguities.  相似文献   

Spillage sedimentation on large river floodplains          下载免费PDF全文

John Lewin  Philip J. Ashworth  Robert J. P. Strick 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(2):290-305

Active deposition across the floodplains of large rivers arises through a variety of processes; collectively these are here termed ‘spillage sedimentation’. Three groups of 11 spillage sedimentation styles are identified and their formative processes described. Form presences on large river floodplains show different combinations of active spillage styles. Only some large floodplains have prominent levees; some have coarse splays; many have accessory channel dispersion and reworking, while still‐water sedimentation in lacustrine environments dominates some lower reaches. Infills are also commonly funnelled into prior, and often linear, negative relief forms relating to former migration within the mainstream channel belt. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Landsat 8 data are used to map spillage form types and coverage along a 1700 km reach of the Amazon that has an active floodplain width of up to 110 km with a systematic character transformation down‐valley. Spillage forms associated directly with mainstream processes rarely account for more than 5% of the floodplain deposits. There is a marked decrease in floodplain point bar complexes (PBC) over 1700 km downstream (from 34% to 5%), and an increase in the prevalence of large water bodies (2% to 37%) and accompanying internal crevasses and deltas (0% to 5%). Spillage sedimentation is likely within the negative relief associated with these forms, depending on mainstream sediment‐laden floodwater inputs. Spillage style dominance depends on the balance between sediment loadings, hydrological sequencing, and morphological opportunity. Down‐river form sequences are likely to follow gradient change, prior up‐river sediment sequestration and the altered nature of spilled loads, but also crucially, local floodplain relief and incident water levels and velocities at spillage times. Considering style distribution quantitatively, as a spatially distributed set of identifiable forms, emphasizes the global variety to spillage phenomena along and between large rivers. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Predicting long-term urban growth in Beijing (China) with new factors and constraints of environmental change under integrated stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties     

Qi?Lu  Ni-Bin?ChangEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Justin?Joyce 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(7):2025-2044

Numerous studies related to the simulation and prediction of urban growth to address land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have been conducted in recent years, but very few have considered the impact of climate change, flooding impact, government relocation, corridor cities, and long-term rainfall variations simultaneously. To bridge the gap, this study predicts possible future LULC changes for 2030 and 2050 in Beijing (China), since Beijing is one of the fastest-growing megacities in the world. The proposed integrated modeling analysis covers four key scenarios to reflect the influences of different factors and constraints on LULC changes, in which cellular automata, Markov chain, and multi-criteria evaluation are fully coupled. While fuzzy membership function was used to address the uncertainty associated with the decision analysis, Markov chain, which is regarded as a stochastic process, was applied to predict future urban growth pathways. In addition, a statistical downscaling model driven by possible climate change scenarios was employed to address long-term rainfall variations in Beijing, China. This study differs from previous ones for Beijing in terms of not only the effects of climate change and flooding impact but also the newly-developed economic free trade zone in Xiong’an and the central government’s plan to relocate to the Tongzhou district. Findings indicate that there is no marked difference in LULC over the four key scenarios. Compared to the baseline LULC in 2010, the predicted results indicate that urban expansion is expected to increase more than 6 and 11% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.  相似文献   

New perspectives on eighteen-degree water formation in the North Atlantic   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Terrence M. Joyce 《Journal of Oceanography》2012,68(1):45-52

In this report, eighteen-degree water (EDW) formation will be discussed, with emphasis on advances in understanding emerging within the past decade. In particular, a recently completed field study of EDW (CLIMODE) is suggesting that EDW formation within a given winter can have at least two different dominant physics and distinct locations: one type formed in the northern Sargasso Sea, largely away from the strong flows of the Gulf Stream where 1D physics may apply, and a second type formed along the southern flank of the Gulf Stream, in a region where the background vorticity of the flow and cross-frontal mixing play key roles in the convective formation process.  相似文献   

Quantifying urban land cover change between 2001 and 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico region     

George Xian  Collin Homer  Brett Bunde  Patrick Danielson  Jon Dewitz  Joyce Fry 《国际地球制图》2013,28(6):479-497

We estimated urbanization rates (2001–2006) in the Gulf of Mexico region using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001 and 2006 impervious surface products. An improved method was used to update the NLCD impervious surface product in 2006 and associated land cover transition between 2001 and 2006. Our estimation reveals that impervious surface increased 416 km² with a growth rate of 5.8% between 2001 and 2006. Approximately 1110.1 km² of non-urban lands were converted into urban land, resulting in a 3.2% increase in the region. Hay/pasture, woody wetland, and evergreen forest represented the three most common land cover classes that transitioned to urban. Among these land cover transitions, more than 50% of the urbanization occurred within 50 km of the coast. Our analysis shows that the close-to-coast land cover transition trend, especially within 10 km off the coast, potentially imposes substantial long-term impacts on regional landscape and ecological conditions.  相似文献   

A significant middle Pleistocene tephra deposit preserved in the caves of Mulu,Borneo     

Joyce Lundberg  Donald A. McFarlane 《Quaternary Research》2012,77(3):335-343

A distinctive white sediment in the caves of Mulu, Sarawak, Borneo is a well-preserved tephra, representing a fluvially transported surface air-fall deposit, re-deposited inside the caves. We show that the tephra is not the Younger Toba Tephra, formerly considered as most likely. The shards are rod-shaped with elongate tubular vesicles; the largest grains ~ 170 μm in length; of rhyolitic composition; and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.70426 ± 0.00001. U–Th dating of associated calcites suggest that the tephra was deposited before 125 ± 4 ka, and probably before 156 ± 2 ka. Grain size and distance from closest potential source suggests an eruption of VEI 7. Prevailing winds, grain size, thickness of deposit, location of potential sources, and Sr isotopic ratio limit the source to the Philippines. Comparisons with the literature give the best match geochemically with layer 1822 from Ku et al. (2009a), dated by ocean core stratigraphy to 189 ka. This tephra represents a rare terrestrial repository indicating a very substantial Plinian/Ultra-Plinian eruption that covered the Mulu region of Borneo with ash, a region that rarely receives tephra from even the largest known eruptions in the vicinity. It likely will be a valuable chronostratigraphic marker for sedimentary, palaeontological and archaeological studies.  相似文献   

Delineating and defining the boundaries of an active landslide in the rainforest of Puerto Rico using a combination of airborne and terrestrial LIDAR data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guoquan Wang  James Joyce  David Phillips  Ramesh Shrestha  William Carter 《Landslides》2013,10(4):503-513

Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) is a remote sensing technique that uses light, often using pulses from a laser to measure the distance to a target. Both terrestrial- and airborne-based LIDAR techniques have been frequently used to map landslides. Airborne LIDAR has the advantage of identifying large scarps of landslides covered by tree canopies and is widely applied in identifying historical and current active landslides hidden in forested areas. However, because landslides naturally have relatively small vertical surface deformation in the foot area, it is practically difficult to identify the margins of landslide foot area with the limited spatial resolution (few decimeters) of airborne LIDAR. Alternatively, ground-based LIDAR can achieve resolution of several centimeters and also has the advantages of being portable, repeatable, and less costly. Thus, ground-based LIDAR can be used to identify small deformations in landslide foot areas by differencing repeated terrestrial laser scanning surveys. This study demonstrates a method of identifying the superficial boundaries as well as the bottom boundary (sliding plane) of an active landslide in National Rainforest Park, Puerto Rico, USA, using the combination of ground-based and airborne LIDAR data. The method of combining terrestrial and airborne LIDAR data can be used to study landslides in other regions. This study also indicates that intensity and density of laser point clouds are remarkably useful in identifying superficial boundaries of landslides.  相似文献   

New challenges in biogeography     

Chris Joyce 《Area》2009,41(3):354-357

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Comment on “Outbreak of enteroviruses and groundwater contamination in Taiwan: concept of biomedical hydrogeology” (Jean 1999) – A question of barriers and epidemiology     

P. Gale  C. Young  K. Lewin 《Hydrogeology Journal》2000,8(3):348-349

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Climate Change and the Disappearance of Malaria from England     

Steve Lindsay  Andy Joyce 《Global Change & Human Health》2000,1(2):184-187

As the world's climate continues to change there is concern that this may cause malaria to spread to new areas. Here we examine whether past changes in temperature, in addition to social changes, may have affected malaria in England. Our analysis indicates that cold summers experienced during the 1800s may have contributed to the disappearance of this disease from the country. As our summers become progressively warner it is unlikely that malaria will become firmly re-established on these shores, although the possibility of future outbreaks should not be ignored.  相似文献