基于未确知测度的区域旅游风险危险性评价——以湖北省恩施土家族苗族自治州为例     

詹丽  张小月  阚如良 《地域研究与开发》2017,36(2)

从突发危机事件、旅游生态风险、旅游经济风险、旅游文化风险、旅游社会风险、旅游安全风险6个方面遴选出42项指标构建区域旅游风险因素识别指标体系。采用未确知数学方法、专家咨询法,从风险可能性和风险危害性两个方面构建区域旅游风险危险性评价模型,并对湖北省恩施土家族苗族自治州旅游发展中的风险进行综合评价。结果表明:在恩施州所面临的6大类旅游风险中,危险性程度最高的是旅游经济风险,其次是旅游文化风险。在42项风险因素中,自然灾害、旅游发展战略失误及盲目旅游开发导致的长期利益受损、旅游业导致的民族文化商品化/原真性丧失、旅游业导致的交通及人口拥挤等,对恩施州而言是危险性程度最高的几项风险因素。  相似文献   

基于ECMWF集合预报的极端天气预报产品应用和检验   总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2  

董全  代刊  陶亦为  周军 《气象》2017,43(9):1095-1109

通过个例总结和大样本分析的方法,本文分析和总结了ECMWF集合预报系统(EPS)中的极端温度和降水预报产品。以上产品主要为08—08时的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水量四个要素的极端天气预报指数(extreme forecast index,EFI)和SOT("shift of tail"index)。研究显示,气温EFI和SOT预报效果接近,降水SOT优于EFI。运用过去3年的资料,以TS评分最大为标准,分别确定了不同时效、不同百分位的极端高低温和极端强降水事件在我国的预报阈值,及其对应的各检验参数。对于1%(99%)百分位的极端低温(高温)事件,平均气温EFI和SOT的阈值分别在-0.85(0.75)和0.38(0),最高和最低气温的阈值与平均气温的阈值接近。对于95%和99%的极端强降水事件,EFI的阈值分别在0.45和0.7左右,SOT的阈值分别在-0.6和0.4左右。整体上呈现时效越长阈值越小,预报效果越差;事件越极端,阈值越大的特点。且此时的bias接近或略大于1,表明预报的发生频率与实况比较接近,具有较好的应用价值。气温EFI和SOT的预报效果和阈值存在明显的季节差异,夏季预报较好,阈值较大,冬季预报较差,阈值较小。降水的季节差异不明显。EFI和SOT的预报效果和阈值在空间分布上也存在一定的差异,且不同的产品空间分布差异不同。  相似文献   

Spatial and Temporal Variation Analysis of Snow Cover Using MODIS over Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 2003–2014     

Yonghong Zhang  Ting Cao  Xi Kan  Jiangeng Wang  Wei Tian 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2017,45(5):887-897

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) snow cover information acquisition of the high precision spatial and temporal characteristics is of great significance for the research on its land surface atmosphere coupled system and global climate change effects. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) daily snow cover products (MOD10A1 and MYD10A1) have been widely used in long time series of spatial and temporal variation analysis, but they are limited to be used because of high cloud cover ratio. In this paper, a 7-day rolling combination algorithm was presented to eliminate cloud obscuration, and the whole cloud amount falls below 7 %. The ground station in situ measurements verify that the overall precision is more than 90 %. The presented algorithm guaranteed the same spatial resolution and temporal resolution, and has higher precision than products MOD10A1 and MYD10A1. The MODIS 7-day rolling combination snow cover datasets products were obtained between 2003 and 2014 in the QTP, and the snow cover area of spatial and temporal variation was analyzed. The change characteristics of snow cover duration was also studied combining with the Digital Elevation Model data. Results show that the snow cover area of the whole QTP has a slowly decreased trend, but increases in autumn. Thus, the snow cover proportion of annual periodic and unstable in different elevations has the highest correlation with area of the elevation.  相似文献   

融合像素级和对象级的遥感图像变化检测方法     

唐侃  邹波  汤振华  林坤  刘波 《测绘科学》2017,42(5)

针对现有遥感影像变化检测方法常存在的检测结果破碎、虚检较多、对数据匹配要求高等问题。提出了一种融合像素级和对象级的遥感图像变化检测方法。利用光谱和纹理信息构建单高斯模型,在多尺度上进行像素级变化检测。然后,以像素级检测结果为种子区域,同时在变化前后影像上区域生长,融合生长结果提取变化对象。最后,依据检测需求对变化对象进行特征分类并滤除虚警。实验结果表明,该方法降低了虚检,保持了变化区域的结构完整性,在变化前后图像分辨率存在一定差别时仍有较高的检测精度。  相似文献   

农村土地承包经营权地块面积自动分割的研究     

孙瑞敏  方衎 《测绘与空间地理信息》2017,40(9)

在农村土地承包经营权确权过程中,利用图解法在分辨率高的数字正射影像图基础上进行调绘可以节省大量的劳动力和工作经费。在调绘时,一个地块往往会分给多个承包方,根据村组提供的合同面积以及影像来图解出实际面积。针对此情况,本文提出一种地块面积自动分割的方法,并基于Arc GIS Engine和C#语言实现了该算法,结合实例表明,该方法快速而有效,大大提高了绘制过程的工作效率,节省了时间,具有较好的实用价值。  相似文献   

PRIMARY ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT AND WATERLOGGING LAW IN NORTH CHINA     

阐贵生  孙荣强  耿雷华 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1993,3(3):226-237

According to the drought and waterlogging disaster statistics over the last 30 years (1950-1979), the annual average area suffering from drought was about 300 million mu (1 mu= 1/ 15 ha) in the whole country, among which about 100 million mu were disastrous areas where the output reduced more than 30%. and the annual lost grains totalled about 5 billion kg. The waterlogging disaster was less than drought disaster. The area suffering from waterlogging was about 100 million mu, among which 60 million mu were disastrous. Drought and waterlogging disasters affect directly the development of the national economy. So it is important to study drought and waterlogging variations, especially the drought and waterlogging variation laws of the areas where the disasters frequently occur.The historical literatures and recent observation data reveal the fact that there existed drought and waterlogging variations. For example, the occurrence frequency of the outstanding and severe drought years in north China is highe  相似文献   

Preliminary study on plasma membrane fluidity of Psychrophilic Yeast Rhodotorula sp.NJ298 in low temperature     

唐海田  郑洲  缪锦来  刘均铃  阚光峰 《极地研究(英文版)》2007,18(1):63-72

The ability of cell to modulate the fluidity of plasma membrane was crucial to the survival of microorganism at low temperature. Plasma membrane proteins, fatty acids and carotenoids profiles of Antarctic psychrophilc yeast Rhodotorula sp. NJ298 were investigated at -3 ℃, 0 ℃ and 8 ℃. The results showed that plasma membrane protein content was greater at -3 ℃ than that at 8 ℃, and a unique membrane polypeptide composition with an apparent molecular mass of 94.7 kDa was newly synthesized with SDS-PAGE analysis; GC analysis showed that the main changes of fatty acids were the percentage of unsaturated fatty acids (C18∶ 1 and C18∶ 2) and shorter chain saturated fatty acid (C10∶ 0) increased along with the decrease of the culture temperature from 8 ℃ to -3 ℃; HPLC analysis indicated that astaxanthin was the major functional carotenoids of the plasma membrane, percentage of which increased from 54.6±1.5% at 8 ℃ to 81.9±2.1% at -3 ℃. However the fluidity of plasma membrane which was determined by measuring fluorescence anisotropy was similar at -3 ℃, 0 ℃ and 8 ℃. Hence these changes in plasma membrane's characteristics were involved in the cellular cold-adaptation by which NJ298 could maintain normal plasma membrane fluidity at near-freezing temperature.  相似文献   

磁化黑洞吸积盘的演化及放能效率     

肖看  汪定雄  雷卫华 《天文学报》2002,43(2):178-188

采用等效电路模型讨论了两种不同类型的磁场对黑洞的旋转能量和角动量的提取机制；Blandford-Znajek(BZ)过程和磁耦合过程，在研究磁化吸积盘中心黑洞自转参量演化特征的基础上，详细比较了纯吸积过程，BZ过程和磁耦合过程对黑洞吸积盘放能效率的贡献，结果表明，磁耦合过程是提取黑洞旋转能量重要的新机制，其放能效率与BZ过程几乎相等，在黑洞自转不是特别大的情况，纯吸积过程的放能效率高于BZ过程和磁耦合过程的放能效率，但是当黑洞自转接近极端Kerr黑洞的自转状态时，放能效率主要由BZ过程和磁耦合过程贡献。  相似文献   

High‐Precision Measurement of Molybdenum Isotopic Compositions of Selected Geochemical Reference Materials          下载免费PDF全文

Jin Li  Xiang‐kun Zhu  Suo‐han Tang  Kan Zhang 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(3):405-415

Here we describe high‐precision molybdenum isotopic composition measurements of geological reference materials, performed using multi‐collector inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (MC‐ICP‐MS). Purification of Mo for isotopic measurements was achieved by ion exchange chromatography using Bio‐Rad AG^® 1‐X8 anion exchange resin. Instrumental mass bias was corrected using ¹⁰⁰Mo‐⁹⁷Mo double spiking techniques. The precision under intermediate measurement conditions (eighteen measurement sessions over 20 months) in terms of δ^98/95Mo was 0.10‰ (2s). The measurement output was approximately four times more efficient than previous techniques, with no compromise in precision. The Mo isotopic compositions of seven geochemical reference materials, seawater (IAPSO), manganese nodules (NOD‐P‐1 and NOD‐A‐1), copper‐molybdenum ore (HV‐2), basalt (BCR‐2) and shale (SGR‐1b and SCo‐1), were measured. δ^98/95Mo values were obtained for IAPSO (2.25 ± 0.09‰), NOD‐P‐1 (?0.66 ± 0.05‰), NOD‐A‐1 (?0.48 ± 0.05‰), HV‐2 (?0.23 ± 0.10‰), BCR‐2 (0.21 ± 0.07‰), SCo‐1 (?0.24 ± 0.06‰) and SGR‐1b (0.63 ± 0.02‰) by calculating δ^98/95Mo relative to NIST SRM 3134 (0.25‰, 2s). The molybdenum isotopic compositions of IAPSO, NOD‐A‐1 and NOD‐P‐1 obtained in this study are within error of the compositions reported previously. Molybdenum isotopic compositions for BCR‐2, SCo‐1 and SGR‐1b are reported for the first time.  相似文献   

人工订正位涡改进模式初始场技术研究     

宫宇  徐珺  代刊  杨寅  杨舒楠 《气象》2016,42(12):1498-1505

面对数值天气预报模式发展中的制约,如今气象界提出了预报员数据同化(data assimilation,DA)的理念,即将预报员的能力有机地融入到数值预报模式中以便发挥各自的优势。人工订正位涡改进模式初始场技术即充分体现了这一理念,其原理是利用了在中、高纬度气旋性环流场中,位涡(potential vortictiy,PV)场和卫星水汽图像(satellite water vapor imagery,WV)较好的对应关系检验数值预报,进而利用位涡的可反演性通过人工修改位涡场来订正数值预报,并已在部分国家实践中证明有着显著的改进模式预报性能的效果。本研究将通过分析对流层中高层的动力活跃区、位涡分布和卫星水汽图像暗区的关系检验模式偏差,进而通过人工订正位涡场和位涡反演,实现对模式初始场的修改,为预报员主观订正模式初始场、改进模式预报能力提供完整的技术流程。  相似文献