Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling     

Anita Shepherd  Karen M. Gill  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3864-3877

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Selection and quality assessment of Landsat data for the North American forest dynamics forest history maps of the US     

Karen Schleeweis  Samuel N. Goward  Chengquan Huang  John L. Dwyer  Jennifer L. Dungan  Mary A. Lindsey 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2016,9(10):963-980

Using the NASA Earth Exchange platform, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project mapped forest history wall-to-wall, annually for the contiguous US (1986–2010) using the Vegetation Change Tracker algorithm. As with any effort to identify real changes in remotely sensed time-series, data gaps, shifts in seasonality, misregistration, inconsistent radiometry and cloud contamination can be sources of error. We discuss the NAFD image selection and processing stream (NISPS) that was designed to minimize these sources of error. The NISPS image quality assessments highlighted issues with the Landsat archive and metadata including inadequate georegistration, unreliability of the pre-2009 L5 cloud cover assessments algorithm, missing growing-season imagery and paucity of clear views. Assessment maps of Landsat 5–7 image quantities and qualities are presented that offer novel perspectives on the growing-season archive considered for this study. Over 150,000+ Landsat images were considered for the NAFD project. Optimally, one high quality cloud-free image in each year or a total of 12,152 images would be used. However, to accommodate data gaps and cloud/shadow contamination 23,338 images were needed. In 220 specific path-row image years no acceptable images were found resulting in data gaps in the annual national map products.  相似文献   

Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems     

Julie Maldonado  T. M. Bull Bennett  Karletta Chief  Patricia Cochran  Karen Cozzetto  Bob Gough  Margaret Hiza Redsteer  Kathy Lynn  Nancy Maynard  Garrit Voggesser 《Climatic change》2016,135(1):111-126

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Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes     

Sally Rangecroft  Andrew J. Suggitt  Karen Anderson  Stephan Harrison 《Climatic change》2016,137(1-2):231-243

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Assessment of Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD) as a Source of Dissolved Radium and Nutrients to Moorea (French Polynesia) Coastal Waters     

Karen L. Knee  Elizabeth D. Crook  James L. Hench  James J. Leichter  Adina Paytan 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(6):1651-1668

Previous work has documented large fluxes of freshwater and nutrients from submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) into the coastal waters of a few volcanic oceanic islands. However, on the majority of such islands, including Moorea (French Polynesia), SGD has not been studied. In this study, we used radium (Ra) isotopes and salinity to investigate SGD and associated nutrient inputs at five coastal sites and Paopao Bay on the north shore of Moorea. Ra activities were highest in coastal groundwater, intermediate in coastal ocean surface water, and lowest in offshore surface water, indicating that high-Ra groundwater was discharging into the coastal ocean. On average, groundwater nitrate and nitrite (N + N), phosphate, ammonium, and silica concentrations were 12, 21, 29, and 33 times greater, respectively, than those in coastal ocean surface water, suggesting that groundwater discharge could be an important source of nutrients to the coastal ocean. Ra and salinity mass balances indicated that most or all SGD at these sites was saline and likely originated from a deeper, unsampled layer of Ra-enriched recirculated seawater. This high-salinity SGD may be less affected by terrestrial nutrient sources, such as fertilizer, sewage, and animal waste, compared to meteoric groundwater; however, nutrient-salinity trends indicate it may still have much higher concentrations of nitrate and phosphate than coastal receiving waters. Coastal ocean nutrient concentrations were virtually identical to those measured offshore, suggesting that nutrient subsidies from SGD are efficiently utilized.  相似文献   

Variable Nitrification Rates Across Environmental Gradients in Turbid,Nutrient-Rich Estuary Waters of San Francisco Bay     

Julian Damashek  Karen L. Casciotti  Christopher A. Francis 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(4):1050-1071

Understanding rates of nitrogen cycling in estuaries is crucial for understanding their productivity and resilience to eutrophication. Nitrification, the microbial oxidation of ammonia to nitrite and nitrate, links reduced and oxidized forms of inorganic nitrogen and is therefore an important step of the nitrogen cycle. However, rates of nitrification in estuary waters are poorly characterized. In fall and winter of 2011–2012, we measured nitrification rates throughout the water column of all major regions of San Francisco Bay, a large, turbid, nutrient-rich estuary on the west coast of North America. Nitrification rates were highest in regions furthest from the ocean, including many samples with rates higher than those typically measured in the sea. In bottom waters, nitrification rates were commonly at least twice the magnitude of surface rates. Strong positive correlations were found between nitrification and both suspended particulate matter and ammonium concentration. Our results are consistent with previous studies documenting high nitrification rates in brackish, turbid regions of other estuaries, many of which also showed correlations with suspended sediment and ammonium concentrations. Overall, nitrification in estuary waters appears to play a significant role in the estuarine nitrogen cycle, though the maximum rate of nitrification can differ dramatically between estuaries.  相似文献   

Engaging in the boycott,divestment, and sanctions (bds) debate          下载免费PDF全文

Karen Culcasi 《Geographical review》2016,106(2):258-263

The goal of this forum is to garner attention to the issues surrounding the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) campaign against Israel, to help a broad audience better understand the complexity of BDS, and to engage geographers in the BDS debate. Including the editorial introduction, seven different experts on the issues of Palestine/ Israel have written six essays on BDS for this forum. The six essays represent a wide range of opinions while also echoing some similar themes.  相似文献   

Hydrochemical assessment of surface water for irrigation purposes and its influence on soil salinity in Tikanlik oasis,China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Karen Ghazaryan  Yaning Chen 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(5):383

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Lead and zinc determinations in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Festuca arundinacea</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cynodon dactylon</Emphasis> collected from contaminated soils in Tandil (Buenos Aires Province,Argentina)     

Carolina B. Albornoz  Karen Larsen  Roberto Landa  Miguel A. Quiroga  Roberto Najle  Jorge Marcovecchio 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(9):742

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Upscaling permeability for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks with the multiple boundary method     

Tao Chen  Christoph Clauser  Gabriele Marquart  Karen Willbrand  Thomas Hiller 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(6):1903-1916

Upscaling permeability of grid blocks is crucial for groundwater models. A novel upscaling method for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks is presented. The objective of the study was to compare this method with the commonly used Oda upscaling method and the volume averaging method. First, the multiple boundary method and its computational framework were defined for three-dimensional stochastic fracture networks. Then, the different upscaling methods were compared for a set of rotated fractures, for tortuous fractures, and for two discrete fracture networks. The results computed by the multiple boundary method are comparable with those of the other two methods and fit best the analytical solution for a set of rotated fractures. The errors in flow rate of the equivalent fracture model decrease when using the multiple boundary method. Furthermore, the errors of the equivalent fracture models increase from well-connected fracture networks to poorly connected ones. Finally, the diagonal components of the equivalent permeability tensors tend to follow a normal or log-normal distribution for the well-connected fracture network model with infinite fracture size. By contrast, they exhibit a power-law distribution for the poorly connected fracture network with multiple scale fractures. The study demonstrates the accuracy and the flexibility of the multiple boundary upscaling concept. This makes it attractive for being incorporated into any existing flow-based upscaling procedures, which helps in reducing the uncertainty of groundwater models.  相似文献