Daily river water temperature forecast model with a k‐nearest neighbour approach     

André St‐Hilaire  Taha B. M. J. Ouarda  Zoubeida Bargaoui  Anik Daigle  Laurent Bilodeau 《水文研究》2012,26(9):1302-1310

Water temperature is a key abiotic variable that modulates both water chemistry and aquatic life in rivers and streams. For this reason, numerous water temperature models have been developed in recent years. In this paper, a k‐nearest neighbour model (KNN) is proposed and validated to simulate and eventually produce a one‐day forecast of mean water temperature on the Moisie River, a watercourse with an important salmon population in eastern Canada. Numerous KNN model configurations were compared by selecting different attributes and testing different weight combinations for neighbours. It was found that the best model uses attributes that include water temperature from the two previous days and an indicator of seasonality (day of the year) to select nearest neighbours. Three neighbours were used to calculate the estimated temperature, and the weighting combination that yielded the best results was an equal weight on all three nearest neighbours. This nonparametric model provided lower Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE = 1·57 °C), Higher Nash coefficient (NTD = 0·93) and lower Relative Bias (RB = ? 1·5%) than a nonlinear regression model (RMSE = 2·45 °C, NTD = 0·83, RB = ? 3%). The k‐nearest neighbour model appears to be a promising tool to simulate of forecast water temperature where long time series are available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Resolution of MRS applied to the characterization of hard-rock aquifers   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Legchenko A  Descloitres M  Bost A  Ruiz L  Reddy M  Girard JF  Sekhar M  Mohan Kumar MS  Braun JJ 《Ground water》2006,44(4):547-554

The performance of the Magnetic Resonance Sounding (MRS) method applied to the investigation of heterogeneous hard-rock aquifers was studied. It was shown using both numerical modeling and field measurements that MRS could be applied to the investigation of the weathered part of hard-rock aquifers when the product of the free water content multiplied by the thickness of the aquifer is >0.2 (for example, 10-m-thick layer with a 2% water content). Using a currently available one-dimensional MRS system, the method allows the characterization of two-dimensional subsurface structures with acceptable accuracy when the size of the subsurface anomaly is equal to or greater than the MRS loop. However, the fractured part of hard-rock aquifers characterized by low effective porosity (<0.5%) cannot be resolved using currently available MRS equipment. It was found that shallow water in the weathered part of the aquifer may screen MRS signals from deeper water-saturated layers, thus further reducing the possibility of investigating deeper fractured aquifers. A field study using the NUMIS(plus) MRS system developed by IRIS Instruments was carried out on an experimental watershed in southern India. A heterogeneous unconfined aquifer in a gneissic formation was successfully localized, and MRS results were confirmed by drilling shortly after the geophysical study. The top of the aquifer revealed by MRS was found to be in a good agreement with observed static water level measurements in boreholes.  相似文献   

Multiwavelength study of M33's giant H ii regions NGC 588 and NGC 592     

Leonardo Úbeda  Laurent Drissen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,394(4):1847-1856

We present a detailed multiwavelength photometric study of giant H  ii regions NGC 592 and NGC 588 in the nearby small spiral galaxy M33. We use data taken with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) on board the Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ). We detect several massive stars in both ionizing clusters. Six Wolf–Rayet (WR) stars are known to exist within those regions and we are able to constrain their physical properties by comparing their photometry to the latest grid of model atmospheres for WR stars of the nitrogen sequence (WN subclass). We estimate the age and mass of both regions by fitting our photometry to models of integrated stellar populations.  相似文献   

Dramatic decrease of pelagic carbonate production by nannoplankton across the Early Toarcian anoxic event (T-OAE)     

Emanuela Mattioli  Bernard Pittet  Laurent Petitpierre  Samuel Mailliot 《Global and Planetary Change》2009,65(3-4):134-145

In this account we present estimates of nannofossil fluxes in four sections and one borehole all belonging to the Early Jurassic western Tethys. This study aims to map the distribution of pelagic carbonate production across the Early Toarcian anoxic event (T-OAE), and to understand which environmental parameters did control such production. Our results indicate important changes in carbonate production by nannoplankton occurring within the western Tethys and its variations through time. Nannofossil fluxes (specimens per m² per year) are extremely low during the T-OAE in all the studied settings. Higher fluxes are encountered in the westernmost part of the Tethys Ocean before the T-OAE, whilst pelagic carbonate production shifted towards the northern margin of the Tethys after the recovery from anoxic conditions. The dramatic decrease in nannoplankton production during the T-OAE has been interpreted in previous works as a biocalcification crisis related to high pCO₂ in the atmosphere/hydrosphere system. Although a high pCO₂ may have lowered the carbonate saturation state of Early Jurassic oceans and finally hampered biocalcification, we speculate that the most important effects of CO₂ increase were indirect, and affected pelagic producers via changes on climate and sea-level. Namely, it seems that precipitation/evaporation budgets and continental runoff that controlled nutrient levels and salinity in surface oceanic waters were important factors for pelagic biocalcifiers.  相似文献   

The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model: description and its performance for the present-day climate   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

Tongwen Wu  Rucong Yu  Fang Zhang  Zaizhi Wang  Min Dong  Lanning Wang  Xia Jin  Deliang Chen  Laurent Li 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(1):149-150

The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model version 2.0.1 (BCC_AGCM2.0.1) is described and its performance in simulating the present-day climate is assessed. BCC_AGCM2.0.1 originates from the community atmospheric model version 3 (CAM3) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The dynamics in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 is, however, substantially different from the Eulerian spectral formulation of the dynamical equations in CAM3, and several new physical parameterizations have replaced the corresponding original ones. The major modification of the model physics in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 includes a new convection scheme, a dry adiabatic adjustment scheme in which potential temperature is conserved, a modified scheme to calculate the sensible heat and moisture fluxes over the open ocean which takes into account the effect of ocean waves on the latent and sensible heat fluxes, and an empirical equation to compute the snow cover fraction. Specially, the new convection scheme in BCC_AGCM2.0.1, which is generated from the Zhang and McFarlane’s scheme but modified, is tested to have significant improvement in tropical maximum but also the subtropical minimum precipitation, and the modified scheme for turbulent fluxes are validated using EPIC2001 in situ observations and show a large improvement than its original scheme in CAM3. BCC_AGCM2.0.1 is forced by observed monthly varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations during 1949–2000. The model climatology is compiled for the period 1971–2000 and compared with the ERA-40 reanalysis products. The model performance is evaluated in terms of energy budgets, precipitation, sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, and atmospheric circulation, as well as their seasonal variations. Results show that BCC_AGCM2.0.1 reproduces fairly well the present-day climate. The combined effect of the new dynamical core and the updated physical parameterizations in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 leads to an overall improvement, compared to the original CAM3.  相似文献   

A multi-model ensemble approach for assessment of climate change impact on surface winds in France   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Julien Najac  Julien Boé  Laurent Terray 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(5):615-634

Statistical downscaling of 14 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) is presented to assess potential changes of the 10 m wind speeds in France. First, a statistical downscaling method is introduced to estimate daily mean 10 m wind speed at specific sites using general circulation model output. Daily 850 hPa wind field has been selected as the large scale circulation predictor. The method is based on a classification of the daily wind fields into a few synoptic weather types and multiple linear regressions. Years are divided into an extended winter season from October to March and an extended summer season from April to September, and the procedure is conducted separately for each season. ERA40 reanalysis and observed station data have been used to build and validate the downscaling algorithm over France for the period 1974–2002. The method is then applied to 14 AOGCMs of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset. Three time periods are focused on: a historical period (1971–2000) from the climate of the twentieth century experiment and two climate projection periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from the IPCC SRES A1B experiment. Evolution of the 10 m wind speed in France and associated uncertainties are discussed. Significant changes are depicted, in particular a decrease of the wind speed in the Mediterranean area. Sources of those changes are investigated by quantifying the effects of changes in the weather type occurrences, and modifications of the distribution of the days within the weather types.  相似文献   

Along-strike variations of P–T conditions in accretionary wedges and syn-orogenic extension,the HP–LT Phyllite–Quartzite Nappe in Crete and the Peloponnese     

Laurent Jolivet  Fabien Trotet  Patrick Monié  Olivier Vidal  Bruno Goffé  Loïc Labrousse  Philippe Agard  Bad'r Ghorbal 《Tectonophysics》2010,480(1-4):133-148

Syn-orogenic detachments in accretionary wedges make the exhumation of high-pressure and low-temperature metamorphic rocks possible with little erosion. The velocity of exhumation within the subduction channel or the accretionary complex, and thus the shape of P–T paths, depend upon the kinematic boundary conditions. A component of slab retreat tends to open the channel and facilitates the exhumation. We document the effect of slab retreat on the shape of P–T paths using the example of the Phyllite–Quartzite Nappe that has been exhumed below the Cretan syn-orogenic detachment during the Miocene in Crete and the Peloponnese. Data show a clear tendency toward colder conditions at peak pressure and during exhumation where the intensity of slab retreat is larger. This spatial evolution of P–T gradient is accompanied with an evolution from a partly coaxial regime below the Peloponnese section of the detachment toward a clearly non-coaxial regime in Crete.  相似文献   

Hydrosedimentary records and Holocene environmental dynamics in the Yamé Valley (Mali,Sudano-Sahelian West Africa)     

Yann Le Drézen  Laurent Lespez  Michel Rasse  Aline Garnier  Sylvie Coutard  Eric Huysecom  Aziz Ballouche 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(3):244-252

Research conducted in the Yamé Valley (Dogon Country, Mali) provides valuable information about the river systems and their Holocene evolution in Sudano-Sahelian West Africa. Past research in the region has relied primarily on marine and lacustrine records. The new results confirm correlation between palaeoclimatic fluctuations recorded in both the river system and in tropical African lakes. They offer a new continental milestone for understanding of the environmental repercussions of Holocene monsoon oscillations. These studies demonstrate the value of river systems as a palaeoenvironmental record and the role of palaeoclimatic and anthropogenic factors in the Holocene dynamics of Sudano-Sahelian hydrosystems.  相似文献   

Electrical resistivity investigation of the arsenic affected alluvial aquifers in West Bengal,India: usefulness in identifying the areas of low and high groundwater arsenic   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Bibhash Nath  Sukumar Basu Mallik  Doris Stüben  Debashis Chatterjee  Laurent Charlet 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,60(4):873-884

This study aims at finding out possible relation between lithology and spatial pattern of dissolved arsenic (As) in groundwater around Chakdaha municipality, West Bengal, India. Satellite image, coupled with electrical resistivity survey and borehole drilling helps to delineate surface and sub-surface lithological framework of the As affected alluvial aquifers. The satellite imagery demonstrate that the high As area are presumably under active flood plain environment (low-lying areas), that constantly receive organics due to periodic flooding. Thick low resistive (fine-grained) layer was observed at the top around the high As areas, which, however, not found in low As areas. The result suggests that hydraulic properties of the surface/sub-surface soil/sediment have an important control on the fate and transport of As in the aquifer. This study demonstrates that electrical resistivity tools can be effectively used for the reconnaissance survey in characterizing the plausible lithological framework of an alluvial aquifer containing As.  相似文献   

Analytical and numerical analyses of the load‐bearing capacity of retaining walls laterally supported at both ends     

Sylvain Plumey  Aurelio Muttoni  Laurent Vulliet  Vincent Labiouse 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(9):1019-1033

This paper investigates the load‐bearing capacity of a perfectly smooth retaining wall laterally supported at both ends assuming that the wall fails by the development of three plastic hinges. The study considers the case of a cohesionless elastic–perfectly plastic backfill with a Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion and an associative flow rule in drained conditions. A kinematically admissible soil–structure failure mechanism is proposed and compared with the conventional solutions and with results from a numerical finite element modelling. The study shows that the proposed solution and the numerical solution are in good agreement. These solutions are found to be much more favourable for the wall than the conventional solutions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献