基于极大熵和小波的时间序列数据预测研究     

景康  张永战  连达军  闵凤阳 《测绘科学》2009,34(2)

在极大熵准则的基础上,以苏州虎丘塔的历史形变观测数据为例,进行时序数据的预测分析。研究不同的样本数据选择原则对预测效果的影响。然后在一致的样本基础上,得到基于不同的模型参数估计方法的时序数据预测曲线,并通过小波的去噪分析进行不同曲线之间优劣的比较。结果表明,在1985年到2000年期间,塔体的变形周期在不断的延长,但总体而言,塔体的变形是在不断的加剧。而基于极大熵参数估计法的AR(p)模型能对实际的观测曲线有很好模拟和预测效果,选择均匀步长的样本数据对提高模型预测精度是很重要的。  相似文献   

Impact of seasonal variations in hydrological stresses and spatial variations in geologic conditions on a TCE plume at an industrial complex in Wonju,Korea     

Jae‐Ha Yang  Kang‐Kun Lee  T. Prabhakar Clement 《水文研究》2012,26(3):317-325

Spatial and temporal variations in a trichloroethylene (TCE) plume at an industrial complex in Wonju, Korea, were examined based on hydrogeological data and seven rounds of groundwater quality data collected over a year. The site has considerable vertical heterogeneities; the top layer of soil is covered by impermeable paving material at several locations, followed by a series of reclaimed or residual soil layers, and with weathered rocks to the crystalline biotite granite at the bottom. Areal heterogeneity in the surface conditions plays an important role in controlling groundwater recharge. The heterogeneity structure is influenced by complex surface conditions paved with asphalt and concrete. Owing to the presence of limited recharge area and concentrated summer precipitation events, the effects of seasonal variations on groundwater hydraulics tend to diminish with distance from the recharge area. This result was established by analysing the influence of the contrasting surface recharge conditions between the near‐source zone and the far zone, and the seasonally concentrated precipitation on the transport patterns of a TCE plume. In addition, variations in the plume's downstream contaminant flux levels were also analysed along a transect line near the source zone. The results show that the general tendency of the TCE plume contaminant concentration and mass discharges were reproducible if we account for seasonal recharge variations and the associated changes in the groundwater level. During recharge events, the TCE concentration variations appear to be influenced by leaching of the residual dense non‐aqueous‐phase liquid (DNAPL) TCE trapped in the unsaturated zone. This result shows that seasonal variations in contaminant plume near the source zone is inevitable at this site, and that these variations indicate the presence of residual DNAPL at or above the water table, at least in some isolated locations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于双曲线模型的采空区路基变形监测预警系统的建立     

康晋明  景兆骥 《岩土工程技术》2012,(5):222-225

通过采空区域高速公路路基地表沉降变形的现场监测,建立了路基沉降变化观测值数据库,基于实测数据,建立了地表沉降变形预测模型,研发了路基沉降变形监测预警系统,并进行了公路路基工后沉降变形的预测分析,最终生成沉降预警报告。  相似文献   

塔里木盆地塔中地区上奥陶统储层岩石学及储集空间特征     

徐康  于炳松  刘思彤 《现代地质》2012,26(4):747-754

应用野外工作和室内研究相结合的方法,从储层的岩石学和储集空间等角度对塔中地区储层特征进行了研究。研究表明,研究区内良里塔格组灰岩段岩性主要为颗粒灰岩、骨架礁灰岩、藻粘结灰岩、泥晶灰岩、岩溶角砾岩等,其中颗粒灰岩大多经历了多期多成因成岩作用改造,裂缝较为发育;泥晶灰岩中多期压溶作用和白云石化作用较为常见;藻粘结灰岩受成岩作用改造相对最弱。宏观储集空间主要包括大型溶洞、孔洞及裂缝,其中孔洞多呈孤立、稀疏并沿裂缝分布;构造缝是裂缝的主要类型。微观储集空间主要包括溶孔和微裂缝,其中溶孔主要发育在亮晶颗粒灰岩中,可细分为粒内溶孔、粒间溶孔、晶间溶孔、铸模孔、溶蚀骨架孔、残余粒间孔及沿裂缝扩溶形成的溶孔,粒间溶孔所占比例最高。埋藏期溶蚀作用发育期次多,规模大,分布广泛,对储层物性的改善和油气聚集的影响最为明显。  相似文献   

2010年新西兰M7.1地震前的长波辐射变化特征     

荆凤  申旭辉  康春丽  熊攀  孙珂 《地球科学进展》2012,27(9):979-986

以2001—2011年美国NOAA长波辐射数据为背景数据,利用涡度背景场法研究2010年9月3日新西兰南岛M7.1级地震前后卫星长波辐射数据变化特征。结果表明,地震当月在震中西南侧出现显著的长波辐射异常变化,这种变化在全年各月及2001—2011年11年历年同月变化中都是最为显著的,认为其是本次地震的1次映震表现。用同样方法对区内2001—2011年11年间发生6次7.0级以上地震的长波辐射数据进行分析,结果在3次陆地地震发震前都检测到了长波辐射异常变化,而海域地震前则未发现这种现象。检索前人的相关研究结果,发现仅有2次海域地震(2004年12月26日印度尼西亚苏门答腊西北海域8.7级地震和2010年1月12日海地7.0级地震)前有长波辐射异常变化的报道,而根据全球云量分布资料显示,这2个地震所发生的区域是全球洋面云量分布最少的2个区域,而新西兰地震发生的区域位于全球洋面云量分布最多的区域。因此,认为由于水汽和云层对地表红外辐射的强吸收作用,长波辐射捕捉陆地地震红外辐射异常变化更加灵敏,对陆地地震的映震效能要强于海洋地震。  相似文献   

河北丰宁招兵沟铁磷矿原生矿选磷工艺探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

康拓新  张俊岭  王群  郭雄  赵铁成 《化工矿产地质》2012,(1):52-55

河北丰宁招兵沟低品位原生磷矿为嵌布较粗磷灰石类型,对2#和4#矿体中低品位磷的综合回收选矿研究,常温和粗磨条件下均获得较好指标,为工业生产提供了技术依据。  相似文献   

西昆仑山前冲断带断裂特征及构造单元划分   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

程晓敢  黄智斌  陈汉林  杜治利  李康  师骏 《岩石学报》2012,28(8):2591-2601

受新生代帕米尔构造结大幅度向北推移、旋转的影响,形成了弧形的西昆仑山前冲断带.本文主要通过野外地质调查、地震反射剖面的精细解释,对西昆仑山前冲断带最基本的组成部分-断裂进行系统研究.西昆仑山前冲断带内以发育与其弧形形态一致的逆冲断裂为主,但弧形冲断带中段的断裂具有挤压逆冲的同时兼有右行走滑性质.冲断带内还发育了NE 向和近EW向的走滑断裂,它们的发育时间和成因不尽相同,它们控制了冲断带内的变形,调节和改造了早期形成的构造.在对断裂系统研究的基础上,结合冲断带各个部位的结构特征和变形时间,将冲断带划分为9个次级构造单元.西昆仑山前冲断带开始发育于中新世中晚期,此后经历了上新世早期、上新世中晚期、早更新世早中期以及早更新世晚期四个演化阶段.  相似文献   

Disaster chains initiated by the Wenchuan earthquake   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Mengzhen Xu  Zhaoyin Wang  Lijian Qi  Le Liu  Kang Zhang 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(4):975-985

The Wenchuan earthquake caused numerous landslides and avalanches, which initiated causal chains of geological and ecological disasters. Field investigations and field experiments were performed in the earthquake area in 2008 and 2009 to study the disaster chains. Four types of disaster chains have been identified and seven cases have been studied. In the disaster chains, each episode was caused by the previous episode, or the causal episode. In the first chain, landslide created a quake lake, which was followed by landslide dam failure flood and very intensive fluvial process. The last episode of the chain was loss of habitats and destruction of aquatic biocommunities. The Tangjiashan and Huoshigou landslides initiated such a type of disaster chain. The second chain consisted of landslide, drainage system burying, debris flows, and development of new drainage system and intensive fluvial process. The Wenjiagou landslide initiated such a type of disaster chain. The third chain consisted of avalanches, grain erosion (unusual erosion of bare rocks due to insolation and temperature change), slope debris flows, and flying stones. Many such disaster chain events occurred on the mountains by the Minjiang River section from Yingxiu to Wenchuan. The fourth chain has only two episodes: avalanches during the earthquake occurring on elevation between 100 and 800 m from the riverbed, and rock falls or new avalanches due to increased slope angle of high mountains (400–1,500 m from the riverbed). The Chediguan bridge was broken by such avalanches in July 2009, in which six were killed and more than 20 were injured. For all the disaster chains, the volume of mass movement in each episode was much less than the causal episode (previous episode). In other words, there was an attenuation along the causal chains. The attenuation factor is defined as the ratio of the volume of mass movement or affected area in one episode of a chain to the volume or affected area in the causal episode. The study concluded that the attenuation factor ranges from 0.02 to 0.3. Macroinvertebrates were used as indicator species to evaluate the ecological effect of the disaster chains. The number of species was greatly reduced by the causal chains, although the river section was not directly affected by landslides.  相似文献   

Photometric correction of Mercury's global color mosaic     

Deborah L. Domingue  Scott L. Murchie  Brett W. Denevi  Nancy L. Chabot  David T. Blewett  Nori R. Laslo  Robin M. Vaughan  Hong K. Kang  Michael K. Shepard 《Planetary and Space Science》2011,59(15):1873-1887

During the third flyby of Mercury by the MESSENGER spacecraft, a dedicated disk-integrated photometric sequence was acquired with the wide-angle multispectral camera to observe Mercury's global photometric behavior in 11 spectral filters over as broad a range of phase angle as possible within the geometric constraints of the flyby. Extraction of disk-integrated measurements from images acquired during this sequence required careful accounting for scattered light and residual background effects. The photometric model fit to these measurements is shown to fit observed radiances at phase angles below 110°, possibly except where both solar incidence and emission angles are high (>70°). The complexity of the scattered light at wavelengths greater than 828 nm contributes to a less accurate photometric correction at these wavelengths. The model is used to correct the global imaging data set acquired at a variety of geometries to a common geometry of incidence angle=30°, emission angle=0°, and phase angle=30°, yielding a relatively seamless mosaic. The results here will be used to correct image mosaics of Mercury acquired in orbit.  相似文献   

Prediction of Clock Errors of Atomic Clocks Based on Modified Linear Combination Model†     

Wang Ji-gang  Hu Yong-huiHe Zai-min  Wu Jian-feng  Ma Hong-jiaoWang Kang 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2011,35(3):318

The prediction of the clock errors of atomic clocks plays an important role in the work on time and frequency. Each of the prediction models often used at present has its own merits and shortages. A combination of the predicted results obtained by means of these models can be used to synthesize the characteristics of various kinds of prediction models. In the light of the problem which occurs when the linear combination model is used to make the prediction of clock errors, the concept of learning weight is proposed and the modified combination prediction model is made by taking advantage of various kinds of pieces of accuracy information. For verifying the efficiency of this method the clock error sequences of the IGS (International GNSS Service) of 4 GPS satellites are selected and the predicted results of the quadratic polynomial and grey model are combined. The result shows that the modified model can further improve the stability and accuracy based on the guarantee of the reliability.  相似文献