The June 2013 Alberta catastrophic flooding event – part 2: fine‐scale precipitation and associated features          下载免费PDF全文

B. Kochtubajda  R. E. Stewart  S. Boodoo  J. M. Thériault  Y. Li  A. Liu  C. Mooney  R. Goodson  K. Szeto 《水文研究》2016,30(26):4917-4933

Data obtained from a variety of sources including the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, weather radars, weather stations and operational numerical weather model analyses were used to address the evolution of precipitation during the June 2013 southern Alberta flood. The event was linked to a mid‐level closed low pressure system to the west of the region and a surface low pressure region initially to its south. This configuration brought warm, moist unstable air into the region that led to dramatic, organized convection with an abundance of lightning and some hail. Such conditions occurred in the southern parts of the region whereas the northern parts were devoid of lightning. Initially, precipitation rates were high (extreme 15‐min rainfall rates up to 102 mm h^?1 were measured) but decreased to lower values as the precipitation shifted to long‐lived stratiform conditions. Both the convective and stratiform precipitation components were affected by the topography. Similar flooding events, such as June 2002, have occurred over this region although the 2002 event was colder and precipitation was not associated with substantial convection over southwest Alberta. Copyright © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Small-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study from the town of Shuitou,Pingyang County,Wenzhou, China     

Yaolong Liu  Guorui Feng  Ye Xue  Huaming Zhang  Ruoguang Wang 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(3):2167-2183

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Modeling the early warning of grassland fire risk based on fuzzy logic in Xilingol,Inner Mongolia     

Xing-peng Liu  Ji-quan Zhang  Zhi-jun Tong 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(3):2331-2342

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Numerical Study of Subgrade Humidity Field Evolution Under Different Initial Groundwater Depths     

Zhi-Jun Liu 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2015,33(1):79-86

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Influence of a coarse interlayer on seawater intrusion and contaminant migration in coastal aquifers          下载免费PDF全文

Yi Liu  Xiaomin Mao  Jian Chen  D. A. Barry 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5162-5175

Vertical 2D slice laboratory experiments were carried out in homogenous and layered sand tanks to elucidate the effects of a highly permeable (coarse‐grained sand) interlayer on seawater intrusion and transport of contaminants to a coastal sea. Tidal fluctuations produced oscillations in the seawater–freshwater transition zone, fluctuations of the contaminant infiltration rate and a zigzag contaminant plume outline. The seawater wedge became discontinuous at the (vertical) edges of the interlayer because of increased lateral movement of the seawater–freshwater interface within the interlayer. The contaminant plume formed a tail within the interlayer depending on the tidal stage, and similar to the wedge, its movement was accentuated. A simple analytical model that neglected vertical flow reliably predicted steady‐state seawater intrusion into the coastal aquifer. Numerical modeling was used to gain insight into the groundwater hydrodynamics and contaminant migration. The numerical results confirmed the experimental findings, i.e. that a highly permeable interlayer can provide a rapid transit path for contaminants to reach the seaward boundary and that the interlayer amplifies the effects of tidal fluctuations, resulting in wider transition zones for the seawater wedge and contaminant plume. Numerical simulations further showed that, with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity, the maximum seawater intrusion distance inside the interlayer increases approximately linearly. For the fixed‐head contaminant injection condition used, the model showed that contaminant infiltration increases approximately logarithmically with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity (other factors held fixed). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dynamic response of a pile considering the interaction of pile variable cross section with the surrounding layered soil          下载免费PDF全文

Liu Gao  Kuihua Wang  Si Xiao  Wenbing Wu 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(9):1196-1214

Assuming that the pile variable cross section interacts with the surrounding soil in the same way as the pile toe does with the bearing stratus, the interaction of pile variable cross section with the surrounding soil is represented by a Voigt model, which consists of a spring and a damper connected in parallel, and the spring constant and damper coefficient are derived. Thus, a more rigid pile–soil interaction model is proposed. The surrounding soil layers are modeled as axisymmetric continuum in which its vertical displacements are taken into account and the pile is assumed to be a Rayleigh–Love rod with material damping. Allowing for soil properties and pile defects, the pile–soil system is divided into several layers. By means of Laplace transform, the governing equations of soil layers are solved in frequency domain, and a new relationship linking the impedance functions at the variable‐section interface between the adjacent pile segments is derived using a Heaviside step function, which is called amended impedance function transfer method. On this basis, the impedance function at pile top is derived by amended impedance function transfer method proposed in this paper. Then, the velocity response at pile top can be obtained by means of inverse Fourier transform and convolution theorem. The effects of pile–soil system parameters are studied, and some conclusions are proposed. Then, an engineering example is given to confirm the rationality of the solution proposed in this paper. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Torsional dynamic response of a large‐diameter pipe pile in viscoelastic saturated soil     

Changjie Zheng  Hanlong Liu  Xuanming Ding  Yaru Lv 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(16):1724-1743

An analytical solution is developed in this paper to investigate the dynamic response of a large‐diameter end‐bearing pipe pile subjected to torsional loading in viscoelastic saturated soil. The wave propagation in saturated soil and pile are simulated by Biot's two‐phased linear theory and one‐dimensional elastic theory, respectively. The dynamic equilibrium equations of the outer soil, inner soil, and pile are established. The solutions for the outer and inner soils in frequency domain are obtained by Laplace transform technique and the separation of variables method. Then, the dynamic response of the pile is obtained on the basis of the perfect contacts between the pile and the outer soil as well as the inner soil. The results in this paper are compared with that of a solid pile in elastic saturated soil to verify the validity of the solution. Furthermore, the solution in this paper is compared with the classic plane strain solution to verify the solution further and check the accuracy of the plane strain solution. Numerical results are presented to analyze the vibration characteristics and illustrate the effect of the soil parameters and the geometry size of the pile on the complex impedance and velocity admittance of the pile head. Finally, the displacement of the soil at different depth and frequency is analyzed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales          下载免费PDF全文

Xixi Wang  Xiaomin Yang  Tingxi Liu  Fengling Li  Ruizhong Gao  Limin Duan  Yanyun Luo 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5547-5560

The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献