Reliability analysis with an icing model for estimating extreme events     

Reza Erfani  Luc Chouinard  Frédéric Légeron 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(1):415-439

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Discrete Element Modeling of a Subduction Zone with a Seafloor Irregularity and its Impact on the Seismic Cycle     

JIAO Liqing  CHAN Chung-Han  Luc SCHOLTES  Aurelia HUBERT-FERRARI  Frederic-Victor DONZE  Paul TAPPONNIER 《《地质学报》英文版》2022,96(3):776-790

Seafloor irregularities influence rupture behavior along the subducting slab and in the overriding plate, thus affecting earthquake cycles. Whether seafloor irregularities increase the likelihood of large earthquakes in a subduction zone remains contested, partially due to focus put either on fault development or on rupture pattern. Here, we simulate a subducting slab with a seafloor irregularity and the resulting deformation pattern of the overriding plate using the discrete element method. Our simulations illustrate the rupture along three major fault systems: megathrust, splay and backthrust faults. Our results show different rupture dimensions of earthquake events varying from tens to ca. 140 km. Our results suggest that the recurrence interval of megathrust events with rupture length of ca. 100 km is ca. 140 years, which is overall comparable to the paleoseismic records at the Mentawai area of the Sumatran zone. We further propose the coseismic slip amounts decrease and interseismic slip amounts increase from the surface downwards gradually.  相似文献   

Kirchhoff scattering series for sources and receivers located in an elastic medium: Another insight into the concept of virtual events     

Oleksiy G. Pochivalov  Luc T. Ikelle 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2009,67(2):171-178

The convolution-type and correlation-type representation theorems are building blocks of wave-scattering theory whose usefulness expands in many seismological applications. For example, the Kirchhoff scattering series currently used for attenuating free-surface multiples has been derived from the convolution-type representation theorem. The recently introduced concept of virtual events, which allows us to put virtual sources and virtual receivers inside the subsurface based on the data collected at the sea surface, has been derived by a combined use of the convolution-type and correlation-type representation theorems. The formulation of inverse Kirchhoff scattering series and virtual events has been limited so far to the cases in which sources or receivers, or both, are located in the water. Unfortunately, this assumption is not valid, especially in the context of virtual events, in which both sources and receivers will often be located in a solid. We here redescribe the Kirchhoff scattering series and reformulate the concept of virtual events for the cases in which sources and receivers are in a solid. Moreover, we describe a new form of Kirchhoff series based on the correlation-type representation theorem and new formulae for computing virtual events which do not include the complex renormalization operation of the previous formulation.  相似文献   

Scattering diagrams in seismic imaging: More insights into the construction of virtual events and internal multiples     

Luc T. Ikelle  Ilana Erez  Xiujun Yang 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2009,67(2):150-170

The key processes in marine seismic imaging include (i) removing from seismic data all seismic events (free-surface multiples and ghosts) which contain at least one reflection at the sea surface in their wave-propagation path, and leaving those with no reflection at the free surface (internal multiples and primaries), (ii) removing events with at least two reflections in the subsurface (internal multiples), and leaving events with only one reflection in the subsurface (primaries), and then (iii) locating the scattering points and reflectors inside the subsurface which are the sources of primaries and internal multiple events. All these processes are here explained, derived, and optimized via scattering diagrams (diagrammatica) in a way similar to the way the quantum field theory is often explained via Feynman diagrams. Our discussion of the removal of events with free-surface reflections from the data will be brief, as the diagrammatica of these events are now well understood.The main focus of this paper is the diagrammatica of internal multiples and primaries. Although these events do not contain any reflection at the sea surface, it is important to reconstruct them with scattering points near the sea surface, where seismic data are recorded. So our diagrammatica of primaries and internal multiples include events which are not directly recorded in seismic data but which can be constructed from seismic data. These events have allowed us to construct scattering diagrams of primaries and internal multiples with scattering points near the sea surface. Furthermore, these new diagrammatica of internal multiples and primaries can be used to remove internal multiples from the data.  相似文献   

Cracking risk of partially saturated porous media—Part II: Application to drying shrinkage     

Bernhard Pichler  Luc Dormieux 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2010,34(2):159-186

Drying of deformable porous media results in their shrinkage, and it may cause cracking provided that shrinkage deformations are hindered by kinematic constraints. Herein, we focus on slow drying of an initially water‐saturated sample of a microheterogeneous poroelastic material damaged by parallel mesocracks. The cracking risk is analyzed by means of the thermodynamics‐based microporoelasticity model described in the companion paper (Part I), which is extended toward consideration of the hierarchical organization of cracked argillite. Drying of a material sample is studied in a framework where macrodisplacements in direction of the crack normal are blocked, while elsewise macrostress‐free boundary conditions prevail. The model implies that the opening/closure behavior of the cracks is governed by an effective pressure, in which the average crack (under)pressure, making the crack opening smaller, competes with the average micropore (under)pressure that makes the crack opening larger. The driving force for crack propagation is a quadratic function of this effective pressure. The model proposes that if drying shrinkage deformations are hindered by kinematic constraints, onset of cracking becomes possible once air entry into the cracks is observed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

250 years of sardine and anchovy scale deposition record in Mejillones Bay, northern Chile   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jorge Valds  Luc Ortlieb  Dimitri Gutierrez  Luis Marinovic  Gabriel Vargas  Abdel Sifeddine 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,79(2-4):198

Marine oxygen-deficient environments with high sedimentation rates and high primary productivity can provide relevant information regarding variations of ocean–climatic conditions in the past. In the Humboldt current ecosystem, which now hosts huge populations of pelagic fishes (mainly anchovy and sardine), fish scale abundance in the sedimentary record may be useful indicators of environmental change. Here we assess such a proxy record in a 42 cm-long sedimentary core collected from 80 m in Mejillones Bay (23°S, northern Chile). We also analyse fish remains in surface sediment sampled along a bathymetric transect (from 10 to 110 m water depth) in the same bay. In the core-top record, the fluctuations of sardine and anchovy scale deposition rates (SDR) agreed with those of industrial catches for these two species in northern Chile, tending to validate the SDR as a proxy of local fish biomass when bottom anoxic conditions prevail. However, apparent SDR for records prior to 1820 have probably been influenced by dissolution processes linked to the oxygenation of the bottom environment of Mejillones Bay, as suggested by other proxy records. After 1820, the fluctuations in the relative abundance of sardine and anchovy scales point to alternating warm and cold conditions during about 30 years and then a progressively cooler period. Since ca. 1870, marked fluctuations of SDR of both species are observed, probably as a consequence of the onset of a different oceanographic regime characterized by intensified upwelling, stronger subsurface oxygen deficiency, higher primary productivity, and enhanced “ENSO-like” interdecadal variability. While anchovy SDR fluctuated in periods of 25–40 years, only two peak periods of sardine SDR occurred (late 19th century and late 20th century), suggesting that sardine abundance depends on other ocean–climatic factors.  相似文献   

Synchronous barium peaks in high-resolution profiles of calcite and aragonite marine bivalve shells     

David Paul Gillikin  Anne Lorrain  Yves-Marie Paulet  Luc André  Frank Dehairs 《Geo-Marine Letters》2008,28(5-6):351-358

Barium/calcium profiles of bivalve shells are characterized by flat background signals periodically interrupted by sharp peaks, with the background signals correlated with water Ba/Ca. To test if the peaks are an environmental signal related to productivity, we analyzed high-resolution Ba/Ca profiles in bivalve shells that grew adjacent to one another. Two aragonitic Saxidomus giganteus show remarkable similarity over a decade of growth, clearly indicating an environmental forcing. Four calcitic Pecten maximus shells also record synchronous Ba/Ca peaks, again indicating an exogenous control. The Ba/Ca peaks, however, start ~40 days after the crash of a bloom, while sedimentation takes place immediately following the bloom. Barite formation in settling phytoplankton flocs, as has been previously proposed, is clearly not the cause of these peaks. Other possible causes, such as dissolved Ba in ambient water, spawning, shell organic matter content, and kinetic growth rate effects are also discussed, but none provide satisfactory explanations. Background shell Ba partition coefficients (Ba/Ca_carbonate/Ba/Ca_water) for both the calcitic shells (0.18) and aragonitic shells (0.16) are similar to that previously reported for the calcitic Mytilus edulis (~0.1). We suggest that Ba/Ca peaks in bivalve shells are caused by an as yet undetermined environmental forcing, while background Ba/Ca levels are a good indication of dissolved Ba/Ca in the water; both are independent of shell mineralogy.  相似文献   

Quaternary drainage network reorganization in the Colombian Eastern Cordillera plateau     

Lucía Struth  Emanuele Giachetta  Sean D. Willett  Lewis A. Owen  Eliseo Tesón 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(8):1789-1804

Dramatic drainage reorganization from initial longitudinal to transversal domains has occurred in the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia. We perform a regional analysis of drainage basin geometry and transformed river profiles based on the integral form of the slope-area scaling, to investigate the dynamic state of drainage networks and to predict the degree of drainage reorganization in this region. We propose a new model of drainage rearrangement for the Eastern Cordillera, based on the analyses of knickpoint distribution, normalized river profiles, landforms characteristic of river capture, erosion rates and palaeodrainage data. We establish that the oldest longitudinal basin captured by the Magdalena River network was the Suárez Basin at ≈409 ka, inferring the timing of abandonment of a river terrace using in situ produced cosmogenic beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be) depth profiles and providing a first estimation of incision rate of 0.07 mm/yr. We integrate published geochronologic data and interpret the last capture of the Sabana de Bogotá, providing a minimum age of the basin opening to the Magdalena drainage at ≈38 ka. Our results suggest that the Magdalena basin Increased its drainage area by integrating the closed basins from the western flank of the Eastern Cordillera. Our study also suggests that the Magdalena basin is an aggressor compared to the basins located in the eastern flank of the orogen and provides a framework for examining drainage reorganization within the Eastern Cordillera and in similar orogenic settings. The results improve our understanding of headward integration of closed basins across orogenic plateaux. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effects of bears on rockshelter sediments at Tanay Sur‐les‐Creux,southwestern Switzerland     

Luc Braillard  Michel Gulat  Philippe Rentzel 《Geoarchaeology》2004,19(4):343-367

Sur‐les‐Creux rockshelter is located in the Prealps of southwestern Switzerland. The sequence of deposits in the rockshelter is 80 cm thick and consists of weathered gravels in a phosphate‐rich matrix. A few Middle Palaeolithic artifacts and the bones of cave bear (Ursus spelaeus) were recorded in the fill. We present the results of sedimentological, geochemical, and micromorphological analyses of the rockshelter sediment. All analyses suggest an endokarstic origin of the sediments. The alteration cortices of the gravels imply in situ weathering over a long period. The phosphates are essentially biogenic and have an apatitelike nature. Phosphatization and intense mixing of the sediment are attributed to cave bear (digging of lairs, input of excrements, and carcasses). Only rare carnivore coprolites (lynx) were preserved in the cave deposits. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

Magmatic 87Sr/86Sr relicts in hydrothermally altered quartz diorites (Brabant Massif,Belgium) and the role of epidote as a Sr filter     

Luc André  Sarah Deutsch 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1986,92(1):104-112

The porphyritic quartz diorites of the Caledonian Brabant Massif have been totally altered. Ca, Rb, Sr, Zr, Ce, Y measurements and Sr-Nd isotopic analyses were performed on the Quenast plug and the Lessines sill, in an attempt to study the relative mobility of Sr and evaluate the extent, direction and magnitude of the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr alterations. Sr electron microprobe analyses of epidote were also carried out to assess its role in the Sr distribution.The initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio is shown to have had an unsteady behaviour during the studied water/rock interactions since it has been sometimes enhanced, sometimes depressed and occasionally not modified. The possibility and magnitude of the ⁸⁷Sr contamination turn out to be strictly related to the degree of Sr accommodation in the secondary minerals. Epidote in particular has proved to be the main trap for the hydrothermal Sr and this mineral is thus regarded as the major controlling factor of ⁸⁷Sr hydrothermal contamination. The epidote-poor rocks (albite+chlorite-rich rocks) seem to have been unaffected by any Sr interchange with the aqueous solutions. Therefore, as alteration quickly follows the crystallization of the magma, their initial ⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr ratio, which is deduced from an isochron, might be a primary petrogenetic feature enabling interpretation of the genesis of their parental magmas. On the other hand, in the epidote-rich rocks, this ratio has been readily altered; it could thus generally be used only to trace the origin of the hydrothermal solutions. As a consequence, these rocks should not be selected for dating an alteration event by the Rb-Sr method.  相似文献