Statistical Analysis of Ground Motions Estimated on the Basis of a Recipe for Strong-motion Prediction: Approach to Quantitative Evaluation of Average and Standard Deviation of Ground Motion Distribution     

Masayuki Yamada  Shigeki Senna  Hiroyuki Fujiwara 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(1-2):141-153

For seismic hazard assessment, we study the variabilities of predicted ground motion on the basis of a ??recipe for predicting strong ground motion?? and propose approximations to evaluate spatial distributions of the standard deviation for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0 in the estimated ground motions. For strong-motion prediction, we use a finite difference method for a long period range (>1.0?s). To estimate variabilities, a Monte Carlo simulation is used and we adopt the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique to reduce computations. In this article, we consider only aleatory variabilities in source parameters among all possible variabilities, such as those in the source parameters, the propagation characteristics and site characteristics. Model sources are assumed for dip-slip fault and strike-slip fault, and the variabilities are considered for parameters such as asperity location, rupture starting point, average asperity slip contrast, stress drop and rupture velocity. On the target site, 100 instances of PGV, R1.0, R2.0 and R5.0 data are obtained for 100 sets of parameters and an average and a standard deviation of the log normal distribution, corresponding to the variability for ground motion estimation, are statistically analyzed. For all target sites uniformly distributed in the area around the faults, the average and the standard deviation are statistically analyzed and spread to spatial maps. It is found that the spatial distributions of standard deviation values for both the dip-slip and strike-slip faults are not uniform. Approximations are attempted to develop a quantitative evaluation for spatial distributions of the standard deviation of the log normal distribution for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0. The spatial distributions by these approximations are considered to almost reconstruct the characteristics, which are statistically analyzed by the finite difference method.  相似文献   

Kinetic stability of a melted iron globule during chondrule formation. I. Non‐rotating model     

Masayuki UESUGI  Minoru SEKIYA  Tomoki NAKAMURA 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2008,43(4):717-730

Abstract— We have investigated the kinematics of the separation of iron globules from chondrules during chondrule formation. A simple model, which assumes that the system has no angular momentum, was used to calculate the energy of a system with an iron globule and a chondrule. The energies of three different states were calculated: 1) a melted iron globule fully embedded in a melted chondrule, 2) a melted iron globule on the surface of a melted chondrule, and 3) a melted iron globule being separated from a melted chondrule. We also calculated the lowest energy shape for a melted iron globule on the surface of a melted chondrule, and compared our result with the shapes of four natural samples of chondrules and iron globules in thin sections. The shapes were calculated using an assumed value for the interface energy between the four couples of melted chondrules and the iron globules, and agree well with the natural shapes of chondrules and iron globules. The results of our calculations show that the iron globules of these four samples would be strongly bound to the surface of the melted chondrule during chondrule formation, and separation would be difficult, if the iron globules had been on the surface of precursors of these chondrules. Our results also show that if these iron globules were initially inside and transported to the surface of the melted chondrule, most of them would be ejected from the inside to outside because of surface tension forces, as long as the energy losses due to viscous dissipation when the globules pass through the surface of melted chondrules were sufficiently small. Although further improvement of the model is required, our results demonstrate that this ejection process may be responsible for the depletion of siderophile elements in natural chondrules.  相似文献   

Verifying optimality of rainfed agriculture using a stochastic model for drought occurrence   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Erfaneh Sharifi  Koichi Unami  Macarius Yangyuoru  Masayuki Fujihara 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(5):1503-1514

It may be paradoxical but subsistence rainfed agriculture is the predominant source of food in Sub-Saharan Africa where the production uncertainty is associated with the stochastic nature of rainfall. This paper attempts to comprehend the rationale of this situation by a mathematical approach. Considering the level of drought severity as the zero-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, optimality of rainfed agriculture is investigated in the context of stochastic control theory. Occurrence of drought terminating growth of crops is modelled with the concept of first exit time. A stochastic control problem allowing for virtual cost of irrigation, water stress to crops, and benefits of farming is formulated with irrigation effort as the control variable. The Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation governing the optimal control is studied to identify the set of cost functions optimizing rainfed agriculture in an inverse problem approach. Data and information were collected in the coastal savanna agro-ecological zone of Ghana, to identify model parameters, formulate the stochastic control problem, solve the inverse problem, and then verify optimality of rainfed agriculture. The results indicated that rainfed agriculture is not optimal when the crop is more tolerant to water stress.  相似文献   

High-frequency polarity swings during the Gauss-Matuyama reversal from Baoji loess sediment     

TianShui Yang  Masayuki Hyodo  ZhenYu Yang  ShiHong Zhang  Toshiaki Mishima  HuaiChun Wu  HaiYan Li  Yi Li  XingAn Shi  Kan Wang  YiMing Ma 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(8):1929-1943

Paleomagnetic records of the Gauss-Matuyama reversal were obtained from two loess sections at Baoji on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Stepwise thermal demagnetization shows two obvious magnetization components. A low-temperature component isolated between 100 and 200–250°C is close to the present geomagnetic field direction, and a high-temperature component isolated above 200–250°C reveals clearly normal, reversed, and transitional polarities. Magnetostratigraphic results of both sections indicated that the Gauss-Matuyama reversal consists of a high-frequency polarity fluctuation zone, but the characteristic remanent magnetization directions during the reversal are clearly inconsistent. Rock magnetic experiments demonstrated that for all the specimens with normal, reversed, and transitional polarities magnetite and hematite are the main magnetic carriers. Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility indicates that the studied loess sediments have a primary sedimentary fabric. Based on virtual geomagnetic pole latitudes, the Gauss-Matuyama reversal records in the two sections are accompanied by 14 short-lived geomagnetic episodes (15 rapid polarity swings) and 12 short-lived geomagnetic episodes (13 rapid polarity swings), respectively. Our new records, together with previous ones from lacustrine, marine, and aeolian deposits, suggest that high-frequency polarity swings coexist with the Gauss-Matuyama reversal, and that the Gauss-Matuyama reversal may have taken more than 11 kyr to complete. However, we need more detailed analyses of sections across polarity swings during reversals as well as more high-resolution reversal records to understand geomagnetic behavior and inconsistent characteristic remanent magnetization directions during polarity reversals.  相似文献   

The Impact of Orographically-Induced Gravity Wave on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over Southeast Kalimantan Island          下载免费PDF全文

WU Peiming  Jun-Ichi HAMADA  Manabu D. YAMANAKA  Jun MATSUMOTO  Masayuki HARA 《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,2(1):35-39

Precipitation measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite indicate that the southeastern area of Kalimantan (Borneo) Island receives much less rainfall than elsewhere on the island during the period from July to October.Results from sur-face meteorological observations show that the diurnal cycle of rainfall differs greatly between the eastern and western coasts of the island.Rainfall on the western coast of the island is frequent in the afternoon and evening,whereas almost all rainfall on the eastern coast occurs in the morning.Meanwhile,the Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived precipitable water (PW) on the eastern coast shows a substantial decrease in moisture in the af-ternoon and evening.Numerical experiments with a mesoscale model reveal that gravity waves driven by di-urnal heating of the elevated land surface of the moun-tains on Sulawesi Island,which lies approximately 300 kilometers to the east of Kalimantan Island,significantly affect the diurnal cycle of rainfall over southeast Kali-mantan Island.  相似文献   

A deep section of accretionary complex: Susunai Complex in Sakhalin Island, Northwest Pacific Margin     

Gaku  Kimura Masayuki  Sakakibara Hisashi  Ofuka Hideo  Ishizuka Sumio  Miyashita Makoto  Okamura Olex A.  Melinikov Vilera  Lushchenko 《Island Arc》1992,1(1):166-175

Abstract A deep section of accretionary complex, the metamorphosed Susunai Complex, is observed on Sakhalin Is., Russia. High pressure part of pumpellyite-actinolite facies metavolcanics, metacherts and metapelites are well exposed and constitute a tectonic pile preserving primary structures related to underplating of the oceanic crust. Three stages of deformation, D₁ through D₃, suggest successive deformation during subduction, underplating and exhumation of the complex. Oceanic material in the complex is more abundant than other well documented ancient accretionary complexes (e.g. the Shimanto Belt in southwest Japan and the Ghost Rocks Formation in Alaska), which were shallowly underplated. At Susunai, deep down-stepping of a décollément has scraped off the upper part of the oceanic crust, primarily the pillowed basalt horizon. This down-stepping results from crustal weakening as overpressured water is released from the fractured oceanic crust during metamorphism.  相似文献   

A scaling model for quantification of earthquakes in and near Japan     

Junji Koyama  Masayuki Takemura  Ziro Suzuki 《Tectonophysics》1982,84(1):3-16

A simple method is developed to determine seismic moments of earthquakes. The method is qualified through criteria such as simplicity of calculations, coverage of wide magnitude range, and insensitivity to detailed instrumental response. The method is applied to 163 major earthquakes which occurred underneath Japan and the Japan Sea in the time from 1926 to 1977. Magnitudes of these earthquakes, which have been determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency, (M_JMA) cover the range from 4.3 to 7.5. At first, source spectra are analyzed through a very simple way introducing two new parameters: characteristic period T_c and seismic-moment factor M_c. The former is defined as an average value of apparent periods of seismic waves with the maximum trace amplitude at many stations. The latter is an average of products of maximum trace amplitude and its apparent period multiplied by epicentral distance. It is shown that T_c corresponds to the period of the corner frequency of an earthquake and M_c to the seismic-moment density at the period of T_c. A scaling model of earthquake source spectra is presented which satisfies the empirical relations between the surface-wave magnitude M_s and M_JMA, and M_JMA and the body-wave magnitude m_b. Those relations are independent of the Gutenberg and Richter relation between M_s and m_b, because M_JMA is determined from maximum amplitudes of seismic waves with a period of about 4 sec. The static seismic moment of each earthquake can be estimated from calculated M_c using the source spectra of the scaling model. Seismic moments of 18 earthquakes determined by conventional analyses from near- and/or far-field observations are consistent with static seismic moments thus estimated over the range from 2 × 10²³ to 3 × 10²⁷ dyne cm. This shows the potential in practice of the present method, especially in the routine processing of seismic data.  相似文献   

Expansion of the Nishinomiya Built Environment Database     

Kohiyama  Masayuki  Yamashita  Norihiko  Sato  Tadanobu  Hengjian  Lu  Maki  Norio  Tanaka  Satoshi  Hayashi  Haruo 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(3):501-522

The Nishinomiya Built Environment Database, which can be used to analyze the disaster process of the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster in Nishinomiya City, has been expanded with new data entries. The database contains the following very detailed datasets: (1) the urbanization area base map, (2) casualty data, (3) three sets of building damage data surveyed by the Nishinomiya City, the Architectural Institute of Japan and the City Planning Institute of Japan, and the Kobe University, (4) building property data based on the real estate tax roll, (5) photographs of the damaged buildings with the information on the place and orientation of the picture, and (6) the estimated distribution of the seismic ground motion. The seismic ground motion was simulated for the southern part of Nishinomiya City and two verification sites in Kobe City and Amagasaki City. In the simulation, the borehole data of public facilities were used to model the surface soils as one-dimensional layers, taking into consideration the fact that the spatial distribution of the sediment/basement interface forms a slope. The model of the fault rupture process simulated the characteristics of the seismic motion at basement level, and amplification effects of the surface layers were evaluated based on multiple reflection theory. The distribution of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity was estimated from acceleration response spectra at each borehole point. In addition, the relationship between simulated seismic ground motion and building damage was studied based on newly proposed band-passed spectrum intensity using the expanded database. This confirmed that detailed categorization is necessary in order to evaluate the fragility functions, especially for reinforced concrete structures. The database should provide fundamental information for identifying the relationship between the ground motions and the extent and pattern of building damage, or the pattern of the occurrence of casualties.Presently  相似文献   

Sea-level change and remagnetization of continental shelf sediments off New Jersey (ODP Leg 174A): magnetite and greigite diagenesis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hirokuni Oda  Masayuki Torii 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,156(3):443-458

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Magnetic grain‐size distribution of the enhanced component in the loess–palaeosol sequences in the western Loess Plateau of China     

Toshiaki Mishima  Masayuki Torii  Hitoshi Fukusawa  Yugo Ono  Xiao-Min Fang  Bao-Tian Pan  Ji-Jun Li 《Geophysical Journal International》2001,145(2):499-504

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