Guidance on the Choice of Threshold for Binary Forecast Modeling     

Keon Tae SOHN  Sun Min PARK 《大气科学进展》2008,25(1):83-88

This paper proposes useful guidance on the choice of threshold for binary forecasts. In weather forecast systems, the probabilistic forecast cannot be used directly when estimated too smoothly. In this case, the binary forecast, whether a meteorological event will occur or not, is preferable to the probabilistic forecast. A threshold is needed to generate a binary forecast, and the guidance in this paper encompasses the use of skill scores for the choice of threshold according to the forecast pattern. The forecast pattern consists of distribution modes of estimated probabilities, occurrence rates of observations, and variation modes. This study is performed via Monte-Carlo simulation, with 48 forecast patterns considered. Estimated probabilities are generated by random variate sampling from five distributions separately. Varying the threshold from 0 to 1, binary forecasts are generated by threshold. For the assessment of binary forecast models, a 2×2 contingency table is used and four skill scores （Heidke skill score, hit rate, true skill statistic, and threat score） are compared for each forecast pattern. As a result, guidance on the choice of skill score to find the optimal threshold is proposed.  相似文献   

Variability of the Dokdo Abyssal Current observed in the Ulleung Interplain Gap of the East/Japan Sea     

KIM Yun-Bae  CHANG Kyung-Il  PARK Jae-Hun  PARK Jong Jin 《海洋学报(英文版)》2013,32(1):12-23

Subinertial fluctuation of a strong northward deep current, which is referred to the Dokdo Abyssal Current (DAC) by Chang et al. (2009), is investigated from current records for about 16.5 and 8.0 months in the Ulleung Interplain Gap of the East/Japan Sea. The current below 300 m is bottom-intensified and has nearly depth-independent flow. Near bottom, the spectral peaks of the current were found near 10, 20, and 60 d. The DAC variability near 10 d and 20 d is reasonably consistent with the linear theory of topographic Rossby waves (TRWs) in the following aspects: (1) The motion is columnar and bottom-intensified; (2) the theoretical cutoff frequency is similar to the observation; (3) The observation-based angles of the wavenumber vector are in good agreement with the theoretical ones. The wavelengths of the TRWs with periods of near 10 d and 20 d near Dokdo are significantly shorter than those with similar timescales in the open oceans (100-250 km). It is primarily due to the weak stratification below 300 m in the East Sea. The deep current fluctuations with periods of near 10 d and 20 d were accompanied by warm events in the upper layer resulting from eddying processes and/or meandering of the Tsushima Warm Current.  相似文献   

Validation of Sea Level Data in the East Asian Marginal Seas： Comparison between TOPEX／POSEIDON Altimeter and In-Situ Tide Gauges     

Yong-Hoon YOUN  Im Sang OH  Ki-Hyun KIM  Young-Hyang PARK  Jong Woo KIM 《大气科学进展》2003,20(4):650-660

In an effort to assess the reliability of satellite altimeter systems, the authors conduct a comparative analysis of sea level data that were collected from the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter and 10 tide gauges (TG) near the satellite passing ground tracks. The analysis is made using datasets collected from marginal sea regions surrounding the Korean Peninsula at T/P cycles of 2 to 230, which correspond to October 1992 to December 1998. Proper treatment of tidal errors is a very critical step in data processing because the study area has very strong tide. When the T/P data are processed, the procedures of Park and Gamberoni (1995) are adapted to reduce errors associated with the tide. When the T/P data are processed in this way, the alias periods of M2, $2, and K1 constituents are found to be 62.1, 58.7, and 173 days repectively. The compatibility of the T/P and TG datasets are examined at various filtering periods.The results indicate that the low-frequency signals of the T/P data can be interpreted more safely with longer filtering periods (such as up to the maximum selected value of 200 days). When RMS errors for the 200-day low-pass filter period are compared with all 10 tidal stations, the values span the range of 2.8 to 6.7 cm. The results of a correlation analysis for this filtering period also show a strong agreement between the T/P and TG datasets across all stations investigated (e.g., p-values consistently less than 0.001). Hence according to the analysis, the conclusion is made that the analysis of surface sea level using satellite altimeter data can be made safely with reasonably extended filtering periods such as 200 days.  相似文献   

Development of the Operational Oceanographic System of Korea     

Park  Kwang-Soon  Heo  Ki-Young  Jun  Kicheon  Kwon  Jae-Il  Kim  Jinah  Choi  Jin-Yong  Cho  Kyoung-Ho  Choi  Byoung-Ju  Seo  Seung-Nam  Kim  Young Ho  Kim  Sung-Dae  Yang  Chan-Su  Lee  Jong-Chan  Kim  Sang-Ik  Kim  Seonjeong  Choi  Jung-Woon  Jeong  Sang-Hun 《Ocean Science Journal》2015,50(2):353-369

Ocean Science Journal - The Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) was developed at the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) to produce real-time forecasting and...  相似文献   

南黄海沉积学研究新进展——中韩联合调查   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

赵一阳  朴龙安  秦蕴珊  高抒  张法高  于建军 《海洋科学》1998,22(1):34-37

于１９９６年６￣７月开展了中韩南黄海联合调查,此次调查取得若干新进展：（１）根据沉积物颜色探讨了黄河物质的影响;（２）从东到西获得到了连续的回声测深记录;（３）首次查明了东部泥的分布特征;（４）对中部泥有了进一步的认识;（５）取得了有关悬浮物分布的的新资料;（６）揭示了东部泥形成的水动力环境。  相似文献   

Mapping bathymetry based on waterlines observed from low altitude Helikite remote sensing platform     

JO Young-Heon  SHA Jin  KWON Jae-Il  JUN Kicheon  PARK Jinku 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(9):110-116

Mapping shoreline changes along coastal regions is critically important in monitoring continuously rising sea surface heights due to climate change and frequent severe storms. Thus, it is especially important if the region has very high tidal ranges over very gentle tidal flats, which is a very vulnerable region. Although the various remote sensing platforms can be used to map shoreline changes, the spatial and temporal resolutions are not enough to obtain it for a short time. Accordingly, in this study we introduce the newly developed low altitude Helikite remote sensing platform to achieve much better resolutions of shorelines and a bathymetry. The Helikite stands for Helium balloon and Kite, which is a kind of aerial platform that uses the advantages of both a Helium balloon and a kite. Field experiments were conducted in the Jaebu Island, off the coast of the west Korean Peninsula in January 29, 2011. In order to extract shorelines from the consecutive images taken by the low altitude Helikite remote sensing platform, active contours without edges (ACWE) is used. Edges or boundaries exist primarily on places between one type of objective and the other. Since the hydrodynamic pressure has an effect everywhere, the locations of the waterlines can be the isobath lines. We could map several waterlines, which would enable us to complete a local bathymetry map ranges from 35 to 60 cm depth. The error resulting from applying ACWE algorithm to the imagery to determine the waterline is approximately less than 1 m. Therefore, it is very unique way to obtain such high resolutions of bathymetry with high accuracy for the regions of extremely high tidal ranges for a short time.  相似文献   

Influences of diel and tidal cycles on fish assemblage in eelgrass (Zostera marina) bed of southern Korea during autumn     

KWAK Seok Nam  PARK Joo Myun  IM Seong Oh  JAWAD Laith A. 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(4):40-47

Short-term tidal and diel variations of autumn fish assemblage in a Zostera marina bed were investigated using 3 h interval samplings for 24 h in both spring and neap tide using a small beam trawl. A total of 1 346 fishes belonging to 19 species were collected at spring tide, whereas 1 115 fishes belonging to 17 species were at neap tide. The common fish species were Nuchequula nuchalis, Acanthogobius flavimanus, Takifugu niphobles, Acentrogobius pflaumii, and Pholis nebulosa with the former three species dominating at spring tide, while the latter two species being abundant at neap tide. Diel variation in abundance was significant with higher abundance at night than day, but there were no significant differences between spring and neap tides, and between ebb and flood tides (three-way ANOVAs). Diel variation in the abundance of fishes may be influenced by tidal range and cycle, and day-night differences of food availability and behaviors of fishes indirectly. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) ordination and analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) results revealed significant differences in species compositions both between day and night, and between spring and neap tide. Eelgrass beds are highly productive marine ecosystem, and thus, our results will contribute to conservation of seagrass ecosystem in the study area.  相似文献   

Physiological differences in the growth and maturation of Eisenia bicyclis and Ecklonia cava gametophytes in Korea     

Han Gil CHOI  Da Vine JEON  Seo Kyoung PARK  GAO Xu 《海洋湖沼学报（英文）》2019,(2):657-664

The objective of this study was to examine the eff ects of temperature and light intensity on growth of female gametophytes of Eisenia bicyclis and Ecklonia cava and responses of these female gametophytes to Fe addition and daylength. Female gametophytes of each species were cultured at four temperatures (10, 15, 20, and 25°C) and under a combination of four light intensities (10, 20, 40, and 80 μmol photons/(m^2 ·s)) with two temperatures (15 and 20°C for E i . bicyclis;20 and 25°C for E c . cava ) to clarify their optimal growth conditions. Growth and maturation of female gametophytes of these two species under a combination of five Fe-EDTA concentrations (0, 1, 2, 4, and 8 μmol/L) and three daylengths (10, 12, and 14 h) were also examined. The growth of E i . bicyclis gametophyte was maximal at approximately 15–20°C, 20 μmol photons/(m^2 ·s), Fe-EDTA concentration of 8 μmol/L and daylengths of 12–14 h. While E c . c ava gametophytes showed optimal growth at approximately 20–25°C, 20 μmol photons/(m^2 ·s), Fe- EDTA concentration of 8 μmol/L and daylength of 14 h. Maturation of gametophytes was enhanced at Fe-EDTA concentration of 4 μmol/L for E i . bicyclis and at 2 μmol/L for E c . c ava . In conclusion, optimal growth temperatures and Fe-EDTA concentrations for maturation of E i . bicyclis and E c . c ava gametophytes were diff erent. Higher optimal growth temperature for E c . c ava gametophytes may contribute to its wider geographical distribution compared to E i . bicyclis which has restricted habitats in Korea. This suggests that addition of Fe ion could be used to recover beds of these two species in barren grounds of Korea.  相似文献   

Mineralogical characteristics of the bauxite deposits in the southeast of Yunnan,China     

ZHANG Li  SONG Yungoo  WANG Genhou  WU Chunjiao  PARK Changyoon 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(Z1):825-827

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High-resolution circulation forecasting of the Maenggol Channel, south coast of Korea     

CHOI Jinyong  JUN Kicheon  CHOI Youngkwang  CHO Kyoungho  KWON Jae-Il  PARK Jinsoon  PARK Kwangsoon 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(12):11-18

The Maenggol Channel and Uldolmok Strait, located on the south-west coast of Korea, have notably strong and complex currents due to tidal effects and to local geological factors. In these areas, electric power has been generated using strong tidal currents, the speed of which is more than 3 m/s during spring tides. The region also provides a shortcut for navigation. These tidal conditions are therefore sometimes useful, but may also cause terrible accidents or severe economic damage, in the absence of accurate information regarding ocean conditions. In April 2014, the passenger ferry MV Sewol capsized in the Maenggol Channel, with 295 passengers killed and 9 still missing. While this was unquestionably a man-made disaster, strong currents were one of the contributing causes. It was also difficult to conduct scuba diving rescue operations given strong current speeds, and accurate prediction of the time when the tide would turn was thus critically needed. In this research, we used the high-resolution coastal circulation forecasting system of KOOS (Korea Operational Oceanographic System) for analysis and simulation of strong tidal currents in such areas with many small islands, using measurements and modeling from this research area. For accurate prediction of tidal currents, small grid size-modeling was needed, and in this study, we identified a suitable grid size that offers efficiency as well as accuracy.  相似文献