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951.
More frequent extreme flood events are likely to occur in many areas in the twenty‐first century due to climate change. The impacts of these changes on sediment transport are examined at the event scale using a 1D morphodynamic model (SEDROUT4‐M) for three tributaries of the Saint‐Lawrence River (Québec, Canada) using daily discharge series generated with a hydrological model (HSAMI) from three global climate models (GCMs). For all tributaries, larger flood events occur in all future scenarios, leading to increases in bed‐material transport rates, number of transport events and number of days in the year where sediment transport occurs. The effective and half‐load discharges increase under all GCM simulations. Differences in flood timing within the tributaries, with a shift of peak annual discharge from the spring towards the winter, compared to the hydrograph of the Saint‐Lawrence River, generate higher sediment transport rates because of increased water surface slope and stream power. Previous research had shown that channel erosion is expected under all GCMs' discharge scenarios. This study shows that, despite lower bed elevations, flood risk is likely to increase as a result of higher flood magnitude, even with falling base level in the Saint‐Lawrence River. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
952.
Amazonian floodplain water balance based on modelling and analyses of hydrologic and electrical conductivity data
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Marie‐Paule Bonnet Sébastien Pinel Jérémie Garnier Julie Bois Géraldo Resende Boaventura Patrick Seyler David Motta Marques 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1702-1718
In the Amazon basin, floodplains form a complex mosaic of freshwater systems with differing morphologies, resulting in varied inundation patterns and heterogeneous chemical and ecological characteristics. In this study, we focused on the Janauacá floodplain, a medium‐sized system (786 km2, including the local watershed) located along the Solimões River. Based on in situ and satellite observations acquired from November 2006 to November 2011, we computed water fluxes between the mainstream and the floodplain and examined the temporal dynamics of floodplain storage from river flooding, rainfall, runoff, and exchanges with groundwater through bank seepage for the 5 years from 2006 to 2011. The mainstream was the main input of water to the flooded area, accounting on average for 93% of total water inputs by the end of the water year. Direct precipitation and runoff from uplands contributed less than or equal to 5% and 10%, respectively. The seepage contribution was less than 1%. Model uncertainties, evaluated using Monte Carlo analysis of the input data and model parameters, showed that all water fluxes were relatively well constrained except for outflow through seepage, which had a standard deviation across simulations greater than 60%. The water balance computation was verified using electrical conductivity as an assumed non‐reactive tracer. Except during periods of very low water, the simulated and measured conductivities agreed well. Moreover, conductivity data analysis confirmed that the Janauacá system can be considered homogeneous in terms of electrical conductivity for filling percentages equal to or greater than 40% (i.e., when the water level is above 19.5 m, generally from April to August) but presented large heterogeneities during the rest of the hydrological cycle. 相似文献
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955.
Aline Peltier Patrick Bachèlery Thomas Staudacher 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2011,199(1-2):96-104
We report a compilation of data recorded at a distant tiltmeter station (RER) during recent episodes of dyke emplacement and eruption (2003–2007) at Piton de La Fournaise volcano (La Réunion Island). This sensitive station provides useful information for evaluating the extent of deformation. Distinct responses of this station were recorded based on the eruption type. Dykes feeding summit eruptions did not significantly influence the RER tiltmeter signals, whereas dykes feeding large distal eruptions (with vents located more than 4 km from the summit) generated up to 1.4 μrad of tilt, an amplitude 2 to 4 times greater than for proximal eruptions (0.3–0.7 μrad) on the flanks of the summit cone. The distinct tilt amplitude is directly linked to the location, depth, and volume of the dyke. Comparison with summit tiltmeters reveals that up to one-third to half of the RER tilt signal associated to dyke propagation is recorded when the dyke is still below the summit crater. Thus, before large distal eruptions, more than 0.5 μrad of tilt is recorded in less than 20 min when the dyke is below the summit crater (i.e. a few minutes/hours before the beginning of the eruption). We can thus propose for the RER station a threshold value of 0.5 μrad which, when reached as a dyke rises beneath the summit crater, suggests a high likelihood of a large distal eruption. The distant RER tiltmeter station thus appears to be a powerful tool for forecasting the type of eruption that is likely to occur, and can contribute to the early detection of large distal eruptions at Piton de La Fournaise, which are the most dangerous to inhabitants. For volcano monitoring, installation of high precision distant tiltmeters along the lower slopes of a volcano may provide warnings of large eruptions with enough lead time to allow for short-term hazards mitigation efforts. 相似文献
956.
Anson W. Mackay George E. A. Swann Melanie J. Leng David W. Morley Natalia Piotrowska Patrick Rioual Dustin White 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(6):627-634
We present a new palaeoenvironmental record of hydrological variability in Lake Baikal, based on re‐modelled δ18Odiatom values of diatom silica (δ18Omodelled), where the residual contaminants are identified and compensated for using electron optical imaging and whole‐sample geochemistry. δ18Omodelled interpretations are based on the balance between rivers with high δ18O values and rivers with low δ18O values. Isotopic variability is related to latitudinal differences in precipitation which feed these rivers. The δ18Omodelled record suggests that rather moist conditions prevailed in the Lake Baikal region during the latter stages of the Younger Dryas. Throughout the Holocene, episodes of low δ18Omodelled values are, in general, in good agreement with increases in percentage haematite‐stained grains in North Atlantic sediments (indicative of ice‐rafted debris events). Rivers with southerly catchments dominate fluvial input especially between c. 3.3 and 2 cal ka BP, concurrent with high precipitation in the Lake Baikal region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
957.
As one of the leading ‘world cities’, London is particularly reliant on sources of foreign direct investment (FDI). In the face of increasing global competition and a difficult economic climate, the capital must compete effectively to encourage and support such investors. Through a collaborative study with London's official FDI promotion agency, Think London, the need for a coherent framework for data, methodologies and tools to inform business location decision‐making became apparent. This article discusses the development of a rich environment to explore, compare and rank London's business neighbourhoods. This is achieved through the development and evaluation of a model for location‐based decision support. First, we discuss the development of a geo‐business classification for London which draws upon methods and practices common in geodemographic neighbourhood classification. A geo‐business classification is developed, encapsulating relevant location variables using Principal Components Analysis into a set of composite area profiles. Second, we discuss the implementation of an appropriate Multi‐Criteria Decision Making methodology, in this case Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), enabling the aggregation of the geo‐business classification and decision‐makers' preferences into discrete decision alternatives. Finally, we present the results of the integration of both data and model through the development and evaluation of a web‐based prototype. 相似文献
958.
Herold M Román-Cuesta RM Mollicone D Hirata Y Van Laake P Asner GP Souza C Skutsch M Avitabile V Macdicken K 《Carbon balance and management》2011,6(1):13
Measuring forest degradation and related forest carbon stock changes is more challenging than measuring deforestation since
degradation implies changes in the structure of the forest and does not entail a change in land use, making it less easily
detectable through remote sensing. Although we anticipate the use of the IPCC guidance under the United Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC), there is no one single method for monitoring forest degradation for the case of REDD+ policy.
In this review paper we highlight that the choice depends upon a number of factors including the type of degradation, available
historical data, capacities and resources, and the potentials and limitations of various measurement and monitoring approaches.
Current degradation rates can be measured through field data (i.e. multi-date national forest inventories and permanent sample
plot data, commercial forestry data sets, proxy data from domestic markets) and/or remote sensing data (i.e. direct mapping
of canopy and forest structural changes or indirect mapping through modelling approaches), with the combination of techniques
providing the best options. Developing countries frequently lack consistent historical field data for assessing past forest
degradation, and so must rely more on remote sensing approaches mixed with current field assessments of carbon stock changes.
Historical degradation estimates will have larger uncertainties as it will be difficult to determine their accuracy. However
improving monitoring capacities for systematic forest degradation estimates today will help reduce uncertainties even for
historical estimates. 相似文献
959.
Vincenzo Bollettino Tilly Alcayna-Stevens Manasi Sharma Philip Dy Phuong Pham Patrick Vinck 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011
The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness. 相似文献
960.