Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM     

Katherine Calvin  Marshall Wise  Leon Clarke  Jae Edmonds  Page Kyle  Patrick Luckow  Allison Thomson 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):545-560

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.  相似文献   

Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Patrick Lehodey  Inna Senina  Beatriz Calmettes  John Hampton  Simon Nicol 《Climatic change》2013,119(1):95-109

IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning.  相似文献   

Temporal Pointing Variations of the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s HMI and AIA Instruments on Subweekly Time Scales     

N. Brice Orange  Hakeem M. Oluseyi  David L. Chesny  Maulik Patel  Patrick Champey  Katie Hesterly  Dylan Anthony  Robert Treen 《Solar physics》2014,289(5):1901-1915

Achieving subarcsecond co-registration across varying time-lines of multi-wavelength and instrument images is difficult and requires an accurate characterization of the instrument pointing jitter. We investigated the internal pointing errors on daily and yearly time-scales that occur across the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI). Using cross-correlation techniques on the AIA 1700 Å passband and the HMI line-of-sight magnetograms from three years of observational image pairs at approximately three-day intervals, internal pointing errors were quantified. Pointing variations of ±?0.26″ (jitter-limited) and ±?0.50″ in the solar East–West (x) and North–South (y) directions, respectively, were measured. AIA observations of the Venus transit in June 2012 were used to measure existing coalignment offsets in all passbands. We found that the AIA passband pointing variations are 〈ΔX _CO〉=1.10″±1.41″ and 〈ΔY _CO〉=1.25″±1.24″ when aligned to the HMI nominal image center, referred to here as the CutOut technique. Minimal long-term pointing variations found between limb and correlation derived pointings provide evidence that the image-center positions provided by the instrument teams achieve single-pixel accuracy on time scales shorter than their characterization. However, daily AIA passband pointing variations of ??1.18″ indicate that autonomous subarcsecond co-registration is not fully achieved yet.  相似文献   

Effects of continuous flow centrifugation on measurements of trace elements in river water: intrinsic contamination and particle fragmentation     

Patrick Ross  Davide Vignati  Janusz Dominik 《水文研究》2006,20(13):2745-2754

Continuous flow centrifugation (CFC) is a well‐established technique used in natural surface water studies to collect large amounts of suspended solids, thus allowing a broad spectrum of measurements. However, a potential contamination or changes in the particle size distribution during the centrifugation may restrain the use of CFC effluents for element analysis in the colloidal and dissolved fractions. In this paper we evaluate the possibility of using the effluent of a Westfalia centrifuge (type KA2‐06‐075, 9700 rpm) for such analysis. This evaluation is based on two laboratory experiments with deionized and tap water and two field experiments in rivers. Elemental concentration changes across the CFC were assessed from the CFC influent and effluent after a filtration at 0·45 µm. Significant increases were found, mainly in the field experiments at a high suspended solids level and a slightly acid pH. A hypothesis was made on the origin of these increases as a superposition of a centrifuge intrinsic contamination and a particle fragmentation effect. A numerical model based on elemental concentration measurements (inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry) gave a particle fragmentation level of 0·55% (mass percentage of particles broken up into smaller fragments during centrifugation). In another experiment, a direct particle counting (single particle counter) shows an excess of particles smaller than 500 nm in the CFC effluent, corresponding to a fragmentation level of 0·11%. In consequence, the use of CFC effluent for element analysis is possible in low‐turbidity river or lake waters, but should be carefully considered in waters with high suspended matter contents. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Accuracy and precision of different sampling strategies and flux integration methods for runoff water: comparisons based on measurements of the electrical conductivity     

Patrick Schleppi  Peter A. Waldner  Bruno Fritschi 《水文研究》2006,20(2):395-410

Because of their fast response to hydrological events, small catchments show strong quantitative and qualitative variations in their water runoff. Fluxes of solutes or suspended material can be estimated from water samples only if an appropriate sampling scheme is used. We used continuous in‐stream measurements of the electrical conductivity of the runoff in a small subalpine catchment (64 ha) in central Switzerland and in a very small (0·16 ha) subcatchment. Different sampling and flux integration methods were simulated for weekly water analyses. Fluxes calculated directly from grab samples are strongly biased towards high conductivities observed at low discharges. Several regressions and weighted averages have been proposed to correct for this bias. Their accuracy and precision are better, but none of these integration methods gives a consistently low bias and a low residual error. Different methods of peak sampling were also tested. Like regressions, they produce important residual errors and their bias is variable. This variability (both between methods and between catchments) does not allow one to tell a priori which sampling scheme and integration method would be more accurate. Only discharge‐proportional sampling methods were found to give essentially unbiased flux estimates. Programmed samplers with a fraction collector allow for a proportional pooling and are appropriate for short‐term studies. For long‐term monitoring or experiments, sampling at a frequency proportional to the discharge appears to be the best way to obtain accurate and precise flux estimates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: Application to skipjack tuna   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Inna Senina  John Sibert  Patrick Lehodey 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,78(4):319-335

A Spatial Ecosystem and Population Dynamic Model (SEAPODYM) is used in a data assimilation study aiming to estimate model parameters that describe dynamics of Pacific skipjack tuna population on ocean-based scale. The model based on advection–diffusion–reaction equations explicitly predicts spatial dynamics of large pelagic predators, while taking into account data on several mid-trophic level components, oceanic primary productivity and physical environment. In order to improve its quantitative ability, the model was parameterized through assimilation with commercial fisheries data, and optimization was carried out using maximum likelihood estimation approach. To address the optimization task we implemented an adjoint technique to obtain an exact, analytical evaluation of the likelihood gradient. We conducted a series of computer experiments in order to (i) determine model sensitivity with respect to variable parameters and, hence, investigate their observability; (ii) estimate observable parameters and their errors; and (iii) justify the reliability of the computed solution. Parameters describing recruitment, movement, habitat preferences, natural and fishing mortality of skipjack population were analysed and estimated. Results of the study suggest that SEAPODYM with achieved parameterization scheme can help to investigate the impact of fishing under various management scenarios, and also conduct forecasts of a given species stock and spatial dynamics in a context of environmental and climate changes.  相似文献   

The Shear Testing Programme – I. Weak lensing analysis of simulated ground-based observations     

Catherine Heymans  Ludovic Van Waerbeke  David Bacon  Joel Berge  Gary Bernstein  Emmanuel Bertin  Sarah Bridle  Michael L. Brown  Douglas Clowe  Håkon Dahle  Thomas Erben  Meghan Gray  Marco Hetterscheidt  Henk Hoekstra  Patrick Hudelot  Mike Jarvis  Konrad Kuijken  Vera Margoniner  Richard Massey  Yannick Mellier  Reiko Nakajima  Alexandre Refregier  Jason Rhodes  Tim Schrabback  David Wittman 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,368(3):1323-1339

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Spatial patterns of suspended sediment yields in a humid tropical watershed in Costa Rica     

Jagdish Krishnaswamy  Daniel D. Richter  Patrick N. Halpin  Michael S. Hofmockel 《水文研究》2001,15(12):2237-2257

An Erratum has been published for this article in Hydrological Processes 16(5) 2002, 1130–1131. Humid tropical regions are often characterized by extreme variability of fluvial processes. The Rio Terraba drains the largest river basin, covering 4767 km², in Costa Rica. Mean annual rainfall is 3139±419_sd mm and mean annual discharge is 2168±492_sd mm (1971–88). Loss of forest cover, high rainfall erosivity and geomorphologic instability all have led to considerable degradation of soil and water resources at local to basin scales. Parametric and non‐parametric statistical methods were used to estimate sediment yields. In the Terraba basin, sediment yields per unit area increase from the headwaters to the basin mouth, and the trend is generally robust towards choice of methods (parametric and LOESS) used. This is in contrast to a general view that deposition typically exceeds sediment delivery with increase in basin size. The specific sediment yield increases from 112±11·4_sd t km^?2 year^?1 (at 317·9 km² on a major headwater tributary) to 404±141·7_sd t km^?2 year^?1 (at 4766·7 km²) at the basin mouth (1971–92). The analyses of relationships between sediment yields and basin parameters for the Terraba sub‐basins and for a total of 29 basins all over Costa Rica indicate a strong land use effect related to intensive agriculture besides hydro‐climatology. The best explanation for the observed pattern in the Terraba basin is a combined spatial pattern of land use and rainfall erosivity. These were integrated in a soil erosion index that is related to the observed patterns of sediment yield. Estimated sediment delivery ratios increase with basin area. Intensive agriculture in lower‐lying alluvial fans exposed to highly erosive rainfall contributes a large part of the sediment load. The higher elevation regions, although steep in slope, largely remain under forest, pasture, or tree‐crops. High rainfall erosivity (>7400 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1 year ^?1) is associated with land uses that provide inadequate soil protection. It is also associated with steep, unstable slopes near the basin mouth. Improvements in land use and soil management in the lower‐lying regions exposed to highly erosive rainfall are recommended, and are especially important to basins in which sediment delivery ratio increases downstream with increasing basin area. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Molecular Hydrogen in high redshift Damped Lyman-α systems     

Patrick Petitjean 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,281(1-2):467-470

I describe briefly the status of an ongoing mini-survey for molecular hydrogen in high-redshift Damped Lyman-α systems using UVES at the VLT. H₂ is detected in about 30% of the cases. When H2 is not detected the molecular fraction f = 2N(H₂)/(2N(H₂)+N(HI) is smaller than 10^-5. Therefore, most of the DLA systems arise in warm (T > 3000 K) and diffuse neutral gas embedded in a strong UV flux. The very recent detection of HD molecules in a Damped Lyman-α system at z _abs = 2.337 demonstrates the possibility to discuss the high redshift chemistry. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Very Large Array observations of broad 6-cm excited-state OH lines in W49A     

Patrick Palmer  W. M. Goss 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,360(3):993-1006

Using the Very Large Array (VLA), we observed all three of the 6-cm lines of the  ²Π_1/2, J = 1/2  state of OH with sub-arcsecond resolution (∼0.4 arcsec) in W49A. While the spatial distribution and the range in velocities of the 6-cm lines are similar to those of the ground-state (18-cm) OH lines, a large fraction of the total emission in all three 6-cm lines has large linewidths (∼5–10 km s⁻¹) and is spatially extended, very unlike typical ground-state OH masers, which typically are point-like at VLA resolutions and have linewidths ≤1 km s⁻¹. We find brightness temperatures of 5900, 4700 and ≥730 K for the 4660, 4750 and 4765-MHz lines, respectively. We conclude that these are indeed maser lines. However, the gains are ∼0.3, again very unlike the 18-cm lines, which have gains  ≥10⁴  . We compare the excited-state OH emission with that from other molecules observed with comparable angular resolution to estimate physical conditions in the regions emitting the peculiar, low-gain maser lines. We also comment on the relationship with the 18-cm masers.  相似文献